证券研究报告 2025 年 10 月 12 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 短期关注秋季呼吸系统传染病叠加流行情况 相关研究： 1. 《研发新进展频现，秋冬季催 化中寻找结构性机会》20250928 2. 《在研管线开发与国际市场 拓展继续呈现积极进展》 20251005 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 24/10 25/01 25/04 25/07 沪深300_累计 疫苗_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | -7 | -11 | -29 | | 绝对收益 | -5 | 3 | -12 | 注：相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师：许雯 证书编号：S0500517110001 Tel：021-50293534 Email：xw3315@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 ❑ 估值：上周疫苗板块 PE（ttm）为 103.74X，PB（lf）为 1.91X 根据 wind 数据，上周疫苗板块 PE（ttm）为 ...

图片来源：欧林生物公告 每经记者|曾子建 每经编辑|魏文艺 9月23日，四川疫苗龙头欧林生物（688319.SH，股价27.20元，市值110.41亿元）突发公告，计划发行H股并申请港交所上市。这距离其8月31日宣布终止推 进一年多的A股定增预案，仅过去不到一个月。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这家由"50后"实控人樊绍文与"80后"女儿樊钒执掌的市值超百亿元企业，迅速成为四川资本圈的关注焦点。 和很多家族企业一样，欧林生物是由名副其实的"父女档"掌舵。 公司实控人樊绍文生于1953年，现年72岁，毕业于西南师范大学区域经济专业，研究生学历，主任技师，执业药师。1976年至1991年，樊绍文曾担任中国医 学科学院输血研究所蛋白室主任。此后踏入商界，先后担任四川蜀阳药业集团副总裁、重庆大林生物技术有限公司董事长兼总经理、武汉瑞德生物制品有限 公司执行总经理等职务。 在樊绍文的职业生涯中，他曾带领四川蜀阳药业集团成为血制品行业的领先企业，也曾在3年内带领中原瑞德由亏转盈、销售额连番增长。此外，他还带着 一度资不抵债的贵阳黔峰生物重获新生，使其在并入泰邦生物后登陆海外资本市场。 2009年，樊绍文选定了自己职业生涯 ...

2025.09.30 本文字数：1127，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经 钱童心 近一周，默克和葛兰素史克（GSK）两大跨国巨头先后宣布换帅，两家公司的长期掌舵者都为女性 CEO，而接替者都从企业内部提拔。高层更替背后也反映了跨国公司面临的挑战正日益加剧。 近期，GSK欧洲药企正在应对关税挑战以及来自美国特朗普政府对药品价格降价的施压。在中国市场 上，GSK所处的疫苗行业也正面临多重挑战。去年12月，智飞生物与GSK变更了双方此前签署的一项疫 苗协议的部分条款，以更低的金额、更长时间销售带状疱疹疫苗，被市场解读为GSK的疫苗需求放缓。 美国证券银行的分析认为，企业在更换CEO时，往往是希望能积极地转移市场情绪。此前，丹麦制药巨 头诺和诺德宣布换帅后，股价应声上涨。 上周，默克集团也宣布，自2026年5月1日起，默克集团现任电子业务CEO毕康明（Kai Beckman）将接 任葛丽鹤（Belén Garijo）担任集团执行董事会主席兼首席执行官。葛丽鹤已在默克任职15年，其中6年 担任医疗健康业务CEO。 默克没有说明葛丽鹤离职的具体原因，但预计她将继续留任默克医疗健康部门的职位。过去两年来，默 克在健康 ...

Core Insights - Recent leadership changes at Merck and GSK reflect increasing challenges faced by multinational companies in the pharmaceutical industry [3][5][6] Group 1: GSK Leadership Change - GSK appointed Luke Miels as the new CEO, effective January 1, 2025, succeeding Emma Walmsley, who served for nine years [5] - Under Walmsley's leadership, GSK's stock price fell approximately 11%, raising investor concerns about the company's ability to achieve its sales target of over £40 billion by 2031 [5] - GSK's recent challenges include tariff issues in Europe and pressure from the U.S. government regarding drug pricing, alongside a slowdown in vaccine demand in China [5] Group 2: Merck Leadership Change - Merck announced that Kai Beckman will take over as CEO from Belén Garijo on May 1, 2026, with Garijo remaining in her role in the healthcare division [6] - Garijo has been with Merck for 15 years and has focused on strategic partnerships rather than large acquisitions, opting for medium-sized deals valued between €500 million and €600 million [6] - Merck is adjusting its supply chain to enhance resilience in response to global trade uncertainties and the complex environment in the Chinese healthcare sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The approval and launch of the first domestically produced nine-valent HPV vaccine in China marks a significant advancement in the country's ability to independently supply high-quality HPV vaccines, positioning China as the second country globally to achieve this capability [1][2]. Group 1: Vaccine Development and Market Impact - The nine-valent HPV vaccine, developed by a team from Xiamen University and Wantai Biological Pharmacy, is the first of its kind in China and the second globally to be approved for market use, indicating a new era of accessible cervical cancer prevention in China [2][4]. - Wantai Biological, as a leading domestic HPV vaccine manufacturer, has produced over 100 million doses of the vaccine, ensuring stable production processes and high-quality standards [4][6]. - The domestic vaccine is priced at 499 yuan per dose, approximately 40% of the cost of imported alternatives, significantly lowering the economic barrier for eligible women and expected to increase vaccination rates [6][10]. Group 2: Clinical Efficacy and Safety - The vaccine targets seven high-risk HPV types responsible for 95.4% of cervical cancer cases in China, with clinical trials involving over 10,000 women aged 9-45, demonstrating its effectiveness and safety [7][9]. - The phase III clinical trial results show a 100% protection rate against persistent infections from high-risk HPV types after 12 months, highlighting its strong preventive potential [7][9]. Group 3: Public Health Policy and Implementation - The nationwide rollout of the vaccine aligns with government public health policies, including the integration of HPV vaccination into the national immunization program, which aims to enhance cervical cancer prevention efforts [10][11]. - Local initiatives, such as the free vaccination program for eligible girls in Xiamen, exemplify effective collaboration between national policies and local practices, providing a model for other regions [10][12]. - The successful introduction of the vaccine is expected to significantly improve vaccination coverage among eligible populations, contributing to the goal of eliminating cervical cancer in China [12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][9] Core Views - The vaccine industry is currently transitioning from scale expansion to innovation-driven growth, facing short-term pain due to supply-demand imbalance and homogenized competition, but the long-term positive logic remains unchanged, driven by policy, demand, and technology [9][25] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with high technical barriers and differentiated pipeline layouts, suggesting that these companies will have stronger product power and competitive advantages [9][25] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - Watson Bio's mRNA vaccine for herpes zoster has received clinical trial approval, marking a significant advancement as no mRNA-based herpes vaccine is currently on the market [4] - Kangtai Bio's trivalent influenza virus split vaccine application has been accepted, targeting individuals aged three and above [4] - The WHO has recommended the components for the 2026 Southern Hemisphere influenza vaccine, maintaining a consistent approach with previous recommendations [4] Market Performance - The vaccine sector has seen a decline of 3.07% recently, with a cumulative increase of 4.33% since the beginning of 2025 [5][6] - The vaccine sector's PE (ttm) is 101.64X, down 3.26X from the previous period, while the PB (lf) is 1.87X, down 0.06X [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative vaccines and companies with strong research and development capabilities, particularly those with differentiated products and technical advantages [8][9] - Companies like CanSino and Kanghua Bio are highlighted as potential investment opportunities due to their innovative capabilities and market demand [9][25]

Core Insights - Changchun Baike Biological Technology Co., Ltd. (Baike Bio) is facing significant challenges as it transitions from children's vaccines to adult vaccines, reflecting common issues in product iteration, market expansion, and R&D transformation within traditional vaccine companies [1][2] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Baike Bio reported its most severe financial results since its IPO, with revenue of 285 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 53.93%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 73.57 million yuan, marking a significant downturn following a brief growth period after the launch of its shingles vaccine in 2023 [1][2] - The company's revenue from the varicella vaccine decreased from 1.02 billion yuan in 2021 to 820 million yuan in 2023, with sales volume dropping from 8.11 million doses to 6.71 million doses, a decline of 17.3% over three years [2][4] Market Challenges - The varicella vaccine faces dual pressures: a declining birth rate in China, which fell from 18.83 million in 2016 to 9.02 million in 2023, and increased competition, with the number of competitors rising from three to five, leading to a 12% drop in the average bidding price for the vaccine [4][5] - The average bidding price for Baike Bio's varicella vaccine decreased from 65 yuan per dose in 2021 to 58 yuan in 2024, with further price reductions expected as competitors enter the market with lower pricing strategies [4][5] Product Performance - The shingles vaccine, initially a strong performer with 663,500 doses sold in its first year and revenue of 883 million yuan, saw a dramatic decline in 2024, with sales plummeting by 69.8% to 200,400 doses, leading to a significant inventory buildup [5][6] - The company’s only growth in 2024 came from its nasal spray influenza vaccine, which generated 141 million yuan in revenue, accounting for only 11.39% of total revenue, insufficient to offset overall declines [6] R&D and Future Prospects - Baike Bio has increased its R&D investment significantly in the first half of 2025, with expenditures reaching 98.2 million yuan, accounting for 34.47% of revenue, compared to 14.81% growth in the previous year [7][8] - The company has developed five major platforms, with 16 projects in the pipeline, including several that have received clinical trial approval, indicating a focus on innovation despite current market challenges [8][9] - However, concerns remain regarding the efficiency of R&D conversion and the high-risk nature of certain projects, such as the Alzheimer's vaccine, which has a failure rate exceeding 90% [9]

Core Insights - The G20 Chief Scientific Advisors Roundtable and Science Ministers Meeting took place from September 21 to 24 in South Africa, serving as a significant platform for promoting technological innovation and green transformation [1] - The meeting's theme focused on "Equitable Science, Technology, and Innovation for Inclusive Human Development and Global Sustainability," emphasizing hydrogen innovation and green transition [1] Group 1: Technological Cooperation - South African experts believe that Sino-African technological cooperation is becoming a new highlight in promoting global green development [1] - South Africa is transitioning to a green economy, primarily relying on solar and wind energy, which is expected to create numerous jobs [1] - Collaboration projects exist between South African institutions and several Chinese universities in the technology sector [1] Group 2: Energy and Health Research - The South African Minister of Science and Innovation highlighted ongoing research in hydrogen energy, fuel cells, and green ammonia [1] - In the health sector, South Africa has established a foundation for vaccine production, addressing local needs [1] - There is extensive international cooperation with China across various fields, including the installation of China's Beidou navigation system in South Africa [1]

人民网北京9月26日电 （记者孙红丽）据国家药监局网站消息，9月25日，国家药监局在云南省昆 明市召开疫苗监管工作专题会议。 会议指出，近年来我国持续加强疫苗监管体系和监管能力建设，不断加大疫苗生产流通监管工作力 度，疫苗质量安全形势总体平稳向好。会议强调，要充分认识疫苗产品的战略性、公益性和敏感性，贯 彻"四个最严"要求，督促落实企业主体责任和属地监管责任；要积极推进疫苗产业数智化转型，探索创 新监管机制和手段；要强化风险预判与处置，全方位筑牢疫苗安全底线，全链条支持疫苗产业高质量发 展。 ...

人民财讯9月26日电，9月25日，国家药监局在云南省昆明市召开疫苗监管工作专题会议。会议指出，近 年来我国持续加强疫苗监管体系和监管能力建设，不断加大疫苗生产流通监管工作力度，疫苗质量安全 形势总体平稳向好。会议强调，要充分认识疫苗产品的战略性、公益性和敏感性，贯彻"四个最严"要 求，督促落实企业主体责任和属地监管责任；要积极推进疫苗产业数智化转型，探索创新监管机制和手 段；要强化风险预判与处置，全方位筑牢疫苗安全底线，全链条支持疫苗产业高质量发展。 ...