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中信证券:国内储能迎来市场化加速拐点 建议关注布局海外储能产业链头部厂商
智通财经网· 2025-11-13 01:01
Core Viewpoint - The global energy storage market is projected to experience significant growth, with new installations expected to reach approximately 290 GWh by 2025 and potentially 1.17 TWh by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential for the industry [1] Domestic Demand - Policy support is accelerating the marketization of domestic energy storage, with the "Document 136" promoting reforms that enhance the economic viability of energy storage in various markets. The domestic energy storage installation is expected to reach 32.0 GW/81.6 GWh in Q1-Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37%/42%. Projections suggest that new installations could reach 150 GWh in 2025 and 203 GWh in 2026, with a long-term forecast of 591 GWh by 2030 [2] U.S. Market - The U.S. energy storage market is driven by high returns and a demand for electricity, with installations expected to reach 19.0 GW/52.5 GWh by 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 53%/45%. Although growth may slow slightly due to increased tariffs and regulatory impacts, the AIDC's rapid growth is expected to further drive demand, with projections of 185.6 GWh of new demand by 2030 [3] European Market - The European market is experiencing a surge in energy storage due to negative electricity prices and a power crisis, with government support increasing. By 2025, it is anticipated to be a turning point for large-scale energy storage, with new installations projected to reach 165 GWh by 2030, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 40% from 2024 to 2030, translating to a market space of 170 billion yuan [4] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets, particularly Australia and the Middle East, are actively developing photovoltaic resources, which is accelerating energy storage development. Government policies are increasingly supportive of energy storage, facilitating its growth [5]