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国金证券:未来股权将优于债权,保险的长期资产端将受益于资本回报的见底
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 00:12
Core Viewpoint - The long-term trend of improving corporate profitability in state-owned enterprises remains unchanged, with expectations for a recovery in overseas manufacturing activities under the backdrop of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The labor market in the U.S. showed signs of weakening in the second quarter, creating conditions for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts [1] - Since July, the external trade environment in the U.S. has stabilized, indicating marginal improvements in the economic sector [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The first recommendation is to invest in upstream resource products (copper, aluminum, oil and petrochemicals) and capital goods (engineering machinery, heavy trucks, forklifts), as well as intermediate products (steel), which will benefit from the recovery of overseas manufacturing and domestic "anti-involution" policies [1] - The second recommendation suggests that equities will outperform bonds in the future, with non-bank financials benefiting from the bottoming of capital returns in the long-term asset side [1] - The third recommendation focuses on consumer sectors aligned with domestic policies centered around "people's livelihood," highlighting dividend-type consumption (food and beverages, home appliances) and certain service industries (hotels, restaurants, leisure tourism) [1]