Core Insights - The global shipping trade is under pressure due to geopolitical tensions, trade policy changes, climate impacts, and regulatory adjustments, leading to increased shipping costs [1] - The UNCTAD report predicts a significant slowdown in shipping trade growth to 0.5% in 2025, following steady growth in 2024 [1] Group 1: Shipping Costs and Trade Dynamics - Shipping routes are being altered due to various pressures, resulting in a 5.9% increase in global shipping ton-miles in 2024, which is nearly three times the growth rate of shipping volume [1] - Freight rate volatility has become the new norm, with container, bulk, and tanker freight rates expected to remain high in 2024 and 2025 [2] - Dry bulk freight rates surged in 2024 due to strong demand for coal, grains, and fertilizers, while tanker rates are projected to spike in June 2025 due to geopolitical factors [2] Group 2: Changes in Maritime Trade Patterns - The maritime energy trade landscape is shifting, with coal prices rebounding after a long decline, stable oil prices but longer transport routes, and rising natural gas prices [2] - The Suez Canal's tonnage is expected to remain 70% lower than 2023 levels by May 2025, while the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption risks, impacting 11% of global trade and one-third of maritime oil trade [2] Group 3: Fleet and Port Operations - As of January 2025, the global fleet consists of 112,500 vessels with a total deadweight of 2.44 billion tons, with Greece, China, and Japan accounting for over 40% of global capacity [4] - Port congestion is increasing, with average waiting times in developed economies rising by 23% to 6.4 hours, and by 7% to 10.9 hours in developing economies [4] Group 4: Connectivity and Environmental Challenges - The UNCTAD liner shipping connectivity index shows Asia remains dominant, while Africa's connectivity improved by 10% from June 2024 to June 2025 [5] - The shipping industry faces a deep transformation due to operational challenges and climate regulations, with significant investments needed for fleet renewal, alternative fuel expansion, and port infrastructure upgrades [5] - The EU carbon pricing is beginning to affect transportation costs and fleet choices, with the International Maritime Organization considering a "net-zero emissions framework" that could drive substantial investment [5]