2025.08. 25 本文字数：2378，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 缪琦 近期，国际运输市场继续调整，多数航线运价下跌。 上海航运交易所8月22日发布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指数为1415.36点，较上期下跌3.1%。关税 等不确定性加剧之下，供需基本面持续疲软，但也不乏逆势上扬的亮点——新兴市场正在快速补足， 并展现出强劲增速，和欧美航线跌跌不休相比，中东和澳新航线持续上涨。 欧美航线运价连跌逻辑不同 从航运价格来看，欧洲和美国航线均持续下跌。 其中，欧洲航线自6月13日下跌以来，持续至今。8月22日，上海港出口至欧洲基本港市场运价（海 运及海运附加费）为1668美元/TEU（20英尺集装箱），较上期下跌8.4%。 美国航线在7月11日出现上涨后，持续回调。8月22日，上海港出口至美西和美东基本港市场运价 （海运及海运附加费）分别为1644美元/FEU和2613美元/FEU，分别较上期下跌6.5%、3.9%。 从我国海关数据看，按美元计，7月中国对欧盟出口增速高达9.2%。按人民币计，前7个月，我国对 欧盟进出口同比增长3.9%。 "虽然运价有所下跌，但我们的业务量是上升的。"深圳堡森三通物 ...

□本报记者 张凌之 在波谲云诡的资本市场中，银华瑞和的基金经理张腾以其独特的能源视角与宏观框架，走出了一条与众 不同的周期投资之路。 他不是传统意义上的"价值派"，也非单纯追逐热点的"成长型选手"，而是一位深谙产业底层逻辑、善于 在不确定性中捕捉确定性的"反脆弱"实践者。 从碳中和时代的煤炭布局，到"反内卷"背景下的有色崛起，张腾用扎实的宏观推演与产业深耕，证明了 周期投资可以做到高胜率，价值投资也可以具有高弹性。 在碳中和与"反内卷"交织的新时代下，他将凭借对能源格局的深刻理解、对宏观慢变量的敏锐洞察以及 成熟分散的对冲体系，在周期浪潮中为投资者捕捉那些真正的结构性机会。 周期股投资的弹性哲学 在大多数投资者的印象中，周期股投资往往等同于"追随商品价格""博弈行业景气度"，甚至被简单贴 上"高股息、低成长"的标签。但张腾的周期投资框架，却与传统认知截然不同。他并非追逐价格波动本 身，而是致力于挖掘驱动周期的底层变量，在产业逻辑与宏观变化的交汇处，捕捉被市场低估的弹性因 素。 "我并不是按照传统定义上的价值去做投资风格的筛选，"张腾直言不讳，他的周期视角建立在对行业关 键变量的深度剖析之上。"我更多是从行业自 ...

Group 1 - The South Korean Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, Kim Jae-soo, emphasized the need to complete the relocation of the Ministry and its affiliated agencies to Busan by the end of the year to enhance growth momentum [1] - The relocation aims to create a competitive economic zone centered around Busan, allowing it to compete equally with the capital region, thus promoting a multi-polar economic structure in South Korea [1] - Busan is being positioned as a frontier for developing the Arctic shipping route, which has emerged due to glacial melting, reducing the travel distance from Busan to the Netherlands to 15,000 kilometers, taking 30 days, which is 10 days shorter than the existing southern route [1] Group 2 - Plans are underway to establish a maritime court in Busan, attract large shipping companies, and create a Southeast Investment Corporation with a capital scale of 30 trillion won to support the relocation of relevant institutions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Yongli Investment (01145.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue and a shift from profit to loss in the first half of 2025, primarily due to adverse market conditions in the shipping industry [1] Financial Performance - The company recorded revenue of $4.381 million in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 14% [1] - The loss attributable to shareholders was $1.708 million, compared to a profit of $1.278 million in the same period last year [1] - Basic loss per share was $0.16, a decline from a basic earnings per share of $0.12 for the period ending June 30, 2024 [1] Market Conditions - The shipping business faced immense pressure, with charter rates for ultra-flexible dry bulk carriers plummeting by 34.1% year-on-year [1] - The decline in demand for goods was attributed to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and other countries, as well as ongoing geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and Palestine, leading to reduced demand and an oversupply of vessels [1] Strategic Response - To mitigate the cyclical impacts on the shipping business, the company strategically resumed its trading operations during the first half of 2025 [1]

Group 1 - The company successfully withdrew its first offshore syndicated loan of $200 million on August 13, with a term of 3 years and an interest rate of SOFR + 0.98%, marking a new low for the province [1] - The financial team meticulously planned the loan process, including a promotional roadshow in Hong Kong and engaging strong international banks as lead arrangers and bookrunners, resulting in a 3.5 times oversubscription from 14 domestic and foreign banks [1][4] - The offshore syndicated loan will be used to refinance maturing US dollar bonds, optimizing the debt structure and providing stable support for the company's development [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - The implementation of the "Social Security New Regulations" is expected to enhance social security coverage, particularly in the flexible employment market, which is crucial for increasing social security participation [2][6]. - The express delivery market faces three main challenges in social security coverage: difficulty in headquarters management, unclear labor relationships, and low willingness of workers to participate in social security [6][22]. - The new regulations are anticipated to work in tandem with the "anti-involution" initiative, potentially leading to price recovery and restoration of the network ecosystem in the express delivery sector [6][37]. Summary by Sections Social Security New Regulations - The new regulations will take effect on September 1, 2025, allowing workers to request economic compensation from employers if they terminate contracts due to the lack of social security [2][21]. - The flexible employment market, with over 240 million workers, is seen as a key area for increasing social security coverage [6][22]. Challenges in the Express Delivery Market - The express delivery sector has a low social security payment rate, primarily due to management difficulties at headquarters, unclear labor contracts, and low participation willingness among workers [6][22][32]. - The report highlights that if the express delivery industry achieves full social security coverage, the cost per delivery could increase by approximately 0.06 to 0.10 yuan [6][38]. Market Dynamics and Recommendations - The report suggests that the express delivery industry is likely to see price adjustments as a response to the new regulations, which could lead to a more sustainable business model [6][37]. - The report recommends focusing on companies like Shentong, YTO, and Zhongtong for potential investment opportunities due to their positioning in the evolving market landscape [8][66].

Group 1: Transportation Services - Pakistan's revenue from transportation services reached $878 million in the first 11 months of the fiscal year 2024-2025, marking a 25.06% increase from $702 million in the same period last year [7] - Maritime service exports grew by 1.34% from $101 million to $102 million, while air transport exports increased by 25.77% from $575 million to $723 million [7] - Road transport exports saw a significant rise of 67.09%, increasing from $23 million to $38 million [7] Group 2: Fiscal Performance - The budget deficit for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is projected at 6.168 trillion PKR, which is 5.38% of GDP, the lowest in nine years [7] - Total revenue for the same fiscal year is estimated at 17.997 trillion PKR, accounting for 15.7% of GDP, while total expenditure is 24.165 trillion PKR, or 21.1% of GDP [7] - The GDP for the fiscal year 2024-2025 is estimated at 114.692 trillion PKR [7] Group 3: Tobacco Exports - Tobacco exports for the fiscal year 2024-2025 reached $167 million, a remarkable increase of 158.31% from $64 million in the previous fiscal year [8] - The total volume of tobacco exports also rose significantly from 18,282 tons to 43,520 tons, reflecting a growth of 140.18% [8] Group 4: Electric Vehicle Initiative - The government approved a five-year subsidy plan to promote 116,000 electric bicycles and 3,170 electric rickshaws, with an estimated cost of 100 billion PKR [8] - This initiative aims to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, reduce oil imports, and promote environmental sustainability [8] Group 5: Trade with Neighboring Countries - Exports to seven countries, including Afghanistan, China, and India, totaled $4.427 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.08%, representing 13.70% of Pakistan's total exports of $33.295 billion [10] - Imports from these countries amounted to $16.699 billion, reflecting a 30.07% increase from $13.838 billion in the previous fiscal year [10] Group 6: Agricultural Census - The 2024 agricultural census revealed that the number of farming households in Pakistan increased from 8.3 million in 2010 to 11.7 million [10] - The total cultivated area expanded from 4.26 million acres in 2010 to 5.28 million acres in 2024, with livestock numbers reaching 251 million, growing at an annual rate of 3.18% since 2006 [10] Group 7: Land Port Authority Legislation - The National Assembly passed the "2025 Pakistan Land Port Authority Bill" to facilitate the movement of goods and people at border crossings [10] - This legislation positions Pakistan as the third South Asian country to establish a land port authority, following Bangladesh and India, and aims to enhance trade and border control [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [10] Core Insights - The express delivery "anti-involution" policy has gained traction, with Guangdong Province leading the way in raising express delivery base prices, which is expected to spread nationwide. However, the aviation sector faces challenges in implementing similar price increases due to its high-end and optional nature, especially given the weak summer performance [2][6] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) has emphasized the need to address "involution" in the aviation industry, particularly focusing on the low-price competition in business routes. The report suggests that the key to "anti-involution" in aviation lies in improving service differentiation and addressing the oversupply in business routes [6][18] Summary by Sections Aviation Sector - The CAAC has made "anti-involution" a priority, with meetings held in June and July 2025 to address the issue. Since 2020, major airlines have reported continuous losses for five years, highlighting the necessity of this initiative [6][18] - Business travel demand remains weak, with expectations for recovery around mid-September. The oversupply in business routes, exacerbated by the shift of international capacity to domestic markets, has led to intense price competition among major airlines [6][18] - Recent improvements in service on key routes, such as Beijing-Shanghai, have shown positive responses in average ticket prices, indicating potential for further expansion of these practices [6][18] Passenger Traffic and Revenue - As of August 9, 2025, domestic passenger traffic showed a slight year-on-year increase of 1%, while international passenger traffic rose by 11%. However, domestic ticket prices faced pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 6.2% [7] - The report notes that the average ticket price for domestic flights has decreased by 8.7% due to fuel surcharges, indicating ongoing revenue challenges despite slight improvements in passenger traffic [7] Shipping and Logistics - The report highlights a rebound in oil shipping rates, with the average VLCC-TCE rate increasing by 52.5% to $35,000 per day, driven by increased cargo from the Middle East [8] - The logistics sector is seeing improvements in coal transport volumes, with daily truck traffic at the Ganqimaodu port rising by 34 vehicles per day, suggesting a recovery in trade demand [8] Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the need for airlines to shift from a focus on market share to differentiation in service to avoid the pitfalls of low-price competition. The recovery of business travel and the management of flight supply by the CAAC are seen as critical to improving the competitive landscape [66]

Core Insights - Brunei's maritime cargo volume is projected to increase from 33.8 million tons in 2023 to 38.6 million tons in 2024, driven primarily by oil and gas as well as downstream industry projects [1] - The number of air passengers in Brunei is expected to rise from 1.2 million in 2023 to nearly 1.5 million in 2024, attributed to an increase in flight routes and frequency [1] - The Brunei government is actively promoting the development of the transportation and logistics sector, aiming to establish the country as a regional international logistics hub [1]

报告导读： 反内卷情绪回落，周期品价格分化，钢铁、水泥、工业金属价格下滑，浮法、 动力煤延续上涨；服务消费表现分化，旅游景气环比回落，电影市场明显改善。 周期品价格分化，电影景气显著改善。 上周（ 07.28-08.03 ）中观景气表现分化，值得关注： 1 ）反内卷情绪有所回落，周期品价格表现分化，建工需求 依旧偏弱，钢铁价格环比回落、水泥价格继续承压，但浮法价格延续上涨；高温支撑电厂日耗，动力煤价延续上涨；海外关税扰动叠加需求偏弱，工业金属价 格环比下滑。 2 ）制造业淡季，汽车、化工行业开工率环比下滑，但石油沥青开工率环比逆势提升，或反映基建需求仍具备韧性。 3 ）乘用车消费延续增 长，但经销商库存压力边际小幅抬升，景气持续性仍待观察；服务消费领域，在暑期档新片拉动下，电影市场景气出现明显改善。 下游消费：地产销售持续磨底，电影票房显著改善。 1 ）地产： 30 大中城市商品房成交面积同比 -20.8% 。其中一线 / 二线 / 三线城市商品房成交面积同 比 -17.8%/-15.7%/-37.0% 。 10 大重点城市二手房成交面积同比 -4.5% 。地产销售同比增速有所下滑。 2 ）耐用品： 07.2 ...