证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-11-24 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《从资管信托新规，看银行理财变局 ——机构行为专题二 20251120》 - 2025.11.21 ——高频数据跟踪 20251122 固收周报 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产端热度持续回落，高炉、沥青、 PX、PTA、全钢胎、半钢胎开工率均下降，其中沥青、PTA、全钢胎和 半钢胎降幅较大。第二，商品房成交面积边际回升，整体低于近年来 同期水平；土地供应面积延续季节性上行趋势，月底预期将迎来供地 高峰。第三，物价整体回落，原油、焦煤、铜、铝、锌以及重点监测 的猪肉、鸡蛋、蔬菜、水果四类农产品价格均下降。第四，航运价格 方面，SCFI 连续三周回落，BDI 大幅上行。短期重点关注消费与投资 端增量政策落地及房地产市场恢复情况。 生产：热度持续下降，沥青、PTA、轮胎开工率降幅较大 11 月 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨运输 [Table_Title] 如何看待回落后的散运？ ——交运周专题 2025W47 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期，干散运标的股价在一波上涨后迅速回调，我们认为前期上涨主要 301 法案落地影响，而 近期回落主要受福建板块情绪降温所致。虽然短期股价下行，但由于所处行业景气修复上行， 明年供给温和有限的背景下，需求三大催化因素 1）西芒杜投产改变铁矿石海运结构，2）美联 储降息释放大宗商品需求，3）俄乌战后重建和雅下水电建设拉涨大宗散货需求，提供行业上行 空间，行业中公司盈利有望随之改善。而从估值角度，当前船台紧张，新船价格维持高位，二 手船价随市场景气反弹，重置成本对估值有较强支撑。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490512020001 SAC：S0490520020001 SAC：S0490519060002 SAC：S0490520080027 SAC：S0490524120001 SFC：BQK468 SFC：BWN875 韩轶超 赵超 鲁斯嘉 张银晗 胡俊文 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% ...

印度的石油企业宣布停止购买俄罗斯产原油，印度出现了原油采购"去俄罗斯化"的动向。有观点指出， 中国也同样试图分散采购地。美国原油对中国的出口增长也备受期待…… 船运指数在10月底之前飙升，10月29日租船费超过10万美元。超大型油轮的盈利线一般为3万～4万美 元。自新冠疫情导致原油价格下跌、使用油轮的海上储备需求增强的2020年4月以来，租船费行情再次 超过10万美元。 美国加强对俄罗斯制裁是运费上涨的主要原因。10月下旬，美国将俄罗斯最大石油企业俄罗斯石油公司 (Rosneft)和第二大石油企业卢克石油公司（Lukoil）列为经济制裁对象。此举希望在与乌克兰的停火谈 判停滞的情况下，打击俄罗斯的军费筹措。 美国也在向俄罗斯的贸易伙伴加强施压。8月以大量购买俄罗斯原油为由，美国向印度征收了额外关 税。美国总统特朗普10月15日表示，印度总理莫迪当天承诺停止购买俄罗斯原油。 印度的石油企业宣布停止购买俄罗斯产原油，印度出现了原油采购"去俄罗斯化"的动向。有观点指出， 中国也同样试图分散采购地。 超大型油轮（VLCC、载重约30万吨）的现货（即时合约）运费正在暴涨。背景是在美国加强对俄罗斯 制裁的趋势下，一直积极 ...

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 11月21日晚间，中远海发发布公告称，公司于2025年11月18日起开始回购，截至2025年 11月21日，公司已累计回购A股股份550万股，约占公司总股本的比例为0.0417%。 ...

新进展。 17家参与集中签约的单位有中关村机器人公司、国机集团、内蒙古乌审旗政府、东方电气集团、中国石化、中国一汽、大疆创新、中国国新、中汽中心、国家绿色 发展基金、中国南水北调、鞍钢、中铝集团、南航集团、招商局集团、中国远洋海运、中国旅游集团等，涵盖了地方政府、中央企业、民营企业和科创产业集群等 多种类型。 据了解，签约的重点项目主要涉及新材料、人工智能、邮轮运营、检验检测、航空物流等关键领域。 11月21日，国务院国资委组织召开中央企业专业化整合推进会并举行重点项目签约仪式。会议总结前一阶段专业化整合工作进展成效，组织重点项目签约，明确当 前阶段新任务新要求。国务院国资委党委委员、副主任李镇出席会议并讲话。 会上，8组17家单位分两批进行了重点项目集中签约，主要涉及新材料、人工智能、邮轮运营、检验检测、航空物流等关键领域。 强调五个"坚持" 要求增强战新整合能力 会议指出，去年以来，中央企业围绕服务国家战略、推动科技创新、促进高质量发展，持续调整存量、优化增量。通过一系列整合，进一步优化产业布局，提高资 源配置效率，提升企业核心竞争力。 今年9月，李镇在国新办举行的"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the banking sector, are gaining attention in the market as they continue to show strong performance and increasing dividend payouts [3][4]. Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - On November 20, A-share banking stocks continued their strong performance, with China Bank (601988.SH) rising by 4%, reaching a historical high, while other major banks also saw increases of over 3% [3]. - The total market capitalization of the four major banks (ICBC, CCB, ABC, and BOC) in A-shares has exceeded 2 trillion yuan [3]. - In the Hong Kong market, Minsheng Bank (01988.HK) led the gains with over a 3% increase, while other banks also saw significant rises [3]. Group 2: Dividend Distribution - As of November 20, 24 out of 42 A-share listed banks have announced mid-term dividends totaling approximately 263.8 billion yuan, marking an increase from the previous year [3]. - High dividend assets are becoming increasingly attractive as deposit rates continue to decline, with many companies in various sectors offering dividends above 4% [7]. Group 3: High Dividend Stocks - There are currently 124 companies in the A-share market with a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with 7 companies yielding over 10% [4][6]. - The top three companies with the highest dividend yields are Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) at 14.1%, Siwei Liekong (603508.SH) at 13.25%, and Guanghui Energy (600256.SH) at 12% [7][8]. - Among the 124 companies with yields over 5%, 85 have seen their stock prices rise in the past year, indicating the resilience of high dividend strategies in the current market [8]. Group 4: Policy Support for Dividends - The regulatory environment is encouraging companies to increase dividend payouts, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission advocating for more frequent and stable dividends [9]. Group 5: Long-term Dividend Trends - For the 2024 reporting period, the companies with the highest dividend yields include Haoxiangni (002582.SZ) at 16.91%, Meiyingsen (002303.SZ) at 15.95%, and Jinshi Technology (002951.SZ) at 14.97% [10][12]. - In 2023, the top dividend yielders were Libai Shares (603519.SH) at 15.34%, Rong'an Real Estate (000517.SZ) at 13.06%, and Yutong Bus (600066.SH) at 11.32% [10][12]. Group 6: Risks of High Dividend Strategies - High dividend strategies are not without risks, as some cyclical stocks may experience significant fluctuations in dividend yields [5]. - Investors should be cautious of "high dividend traps," where declining stock prices artificially inflate dividend yields, potentially indicating deteriorating fundamentals [5][15]. - The market has seen instances where companies maintain high dividends to attract investors despite underlying financial pressures [16][17].

二、担保进展情况 南京盛航海运股份有限公司关于为控股子公司提供担保的进展公告 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 证券代码：001205 证券简称：盛航股份 公告编号：2025-072 一、担保情况概述 债券代码：127099 债券简称：盛航转债 南京盛航海运股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年5月20日召开2024年年度股东会审议通过了 《关于2025年度向子公司提供担保额度预计的议案》，同意在控股子公司盛航浩源（深圳）海运股份有 限公司（以下简称"盛航浩源"）2025年度申请信贷业务（包括但不限于：流动资金贷款、项目贷款、保 函、信用证、银行承兑汇票、票据贴现、保理、押汇等综合业务）及日常经营需要时，公司为其提供不 超过人民币30,000万元的担保额度，提供担保的形式包括但不限于信用担保（含一般保证、连带责任保 证等）、抵押担保、质押担保或多种担保方式相结合等形式。上述公司为盛航浩源提供担保额度的使用 期限为自公司2024年年度股东会审议通过本议案之日起至2025年年度股东会召开之日止， ...

Group 1: Bank Sector Performance - The bank sector is becoming a market focus, with A-share banks showing strong performance, particularly China Bank, which rose 4% to reach a historical high [1] - As of November 20, the total market capitalization of the four major banks in A-shares has exceeded 2 trillion yuan [1] - In the Hong Kong market, Minsheng Bank led gains with over 3% increase, while other banks also saw significant rises [1] Group 2: High Dividend Stocks - There are currently 124 companies in A-shares with a dividend yield exceeding 5%, with 7 companies yielding over 10% [2][3] - The top three companies with the highest dividend yields are Dongfang Yuhong (14.1%), Siwei Liekong (13.25%), and Guanghui Energy (12%) [3][4] - High dividend stocks are not limited to the banking sector but are also found in utilities, energy, and telecommunications, providing a buffer against market volatility [2][3] Group 3: Dividend Distribution Trends - As of November 20, 24 out of 42 A-share listed banks have announced mid-term dividends totaling approximately 263.8 billion yuan, marking an increase from the previous year [1] - Regulatory bodies are encouraging companies to enhance shareholder returns through measures like "cancellation-style buybacks" and multiple annual dividends [5] Group 4: Long-term Dividend Trends - For the 2024 reporting period, the companies with the highest projected dividend yields are Haoxiangni (16.91%), Meiyingsen (15.95%), and Jinshi Technology (14.97%) [6] - In 2023, the top dividend yielders included Libai Co. (15.34%), Rong'an Real Estate (13.06%), and Yutong Bus (11.32%) [7][8] Group 5: Characteristics of High Dividend Companies - High dividend companies are typically found in stable sectors like utilities, energy, telecommunications, and consumer staples, which are less affected by economic cycles [8] - These companies often have clear and stable dividend policies, viewing consistent dividends as a means to maintain credibility and attract long-term investors [8] Group 6: Risks Associated with High Dividend Strategies - High dividend strategies may carry risks, as some companies with high yields may face declining performance or debt issues [10][12] - The phenomenon of "high dividend traps" can occur when a company's stock price falls, artificially inflating the dividend yield without a corresponding increase in earnings [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities highlights a tightening supply-demand situation in the technology manufacturing sector, alongside a marginal improvement in consumer and travel sentiment [1][2]. Consumer Sector - Essential consumer goods retail showed a notable recovery in October, with beverage, grain and oil, and tobacco and alcohol retail sales increasing by 7.1%, 9.1%, and 4.1% year-on-year respectively, likely driven by the "Double Festival" and "Double Eleven" shopping events [3] - Real estate and durable goods continue to face pressure, with transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities down by 24.8% year-on-year, and significant declines in first, second, and third-tier cities [3] - Service consumption is improving, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 2.1% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 90.2% year-on-year due to new film releases [3] Technology & Manufacturing Sector - The electronic industry remains highly prosperous, with explosive growth in storage demand driven by AI, leading to continued price increases in memory chips [4] - The lithium battery industry is experiencing improved sentiment, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise significantly [4] - Construction demand remains weak, with seasonal factors impacting demand for building materials, leading to a subdued price environment for steel and construction materials [4] Resource Sector - Coal prices continue to rise due to supply constraints, with strong heating and electricity demand [5] - International metal prices have seen a slight increase, influenced by rising expectations of overseas interest rate cuts [5] Logistics Sector - Air passenger transport has improved, with long-distance travel demand increasing by 3.7% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in business travel [5] - Freight logistics also show improvement, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 2.6% and 0.2% respectively [5] - However, shipping prices continue to decline, and port throughput has decreased, reflecting fluctuations in export demand [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a differentiated growth pattern in the medium-term economic landscape, with strong performance in emerging technologies and tight supply-demand dynamics in lithium battery materials, while consumer goods and travel sectors show marginal improvement, and real estate and durable goods demand remain under pressure [1]. Group 1: Downstream Consumption - Essential consumption shows marginal recovery, with retail sales of beverages, grains, oils, and food increasing by 7.1%, 9.1%, and 4.1% year-on-year in October, attributed to the impact of the double festival and "Double Eleven" shopping event [2]. - Real estate transactions in 30 major cities decreased by 24.8% year-on-year, with first, second, and third-tier cities seeing declines of 41.2%, 13.6%, and 23.3% respectively, indicating continued weakness in property sales and prices [2]. - Service consumption improved, with the tourism price index in Hainan rising by 2.1% month-on-month and movie box office revenue increasing by 90.2% year-on-year due to the release of new films [2]. Group 2: Technology & Manufacturing - The electronic industry remains highly prosperous, driven by explosive growth in storage demand due to AI, with prices for storage devices continuing to rise [3]. - The construction sector faces weak demand, with seasonal factors leading to a decline in building material demand, resulting in a subdued supply-demand structure and weak price fluctuations in steel and building materials [3]. - The lithium battery industry is experiencing increased prosperity, with the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate continuing to rise significantly, supported by tight supply and recovering downstream demand [3]. Group 3: Human Flow and Logistics - Air passenger demand has improved significantly, with long-distance travel demand increasing by 3.7% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in business travel [4]. - Freight logistics also showed improvement, with national highway truck traffic and railway freight volume increasing by 2.6% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively [4]. - However, shipping prices continue to decline, and port throughput has decreased, indicating fluctuations in export demand [4].