高层楼房林立的北京郊外住宅区（2025年2月，北京市） IMF以政府的宏观经济政策和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。由于中国政府提出 了"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀率到2026年将上升至0.8%…… 12月10日，国际货币基金组织（IMF）公布了关于中国经济的年度报告，预测中国2025年增长率为 5.0%，2026年为4.5%。与10月发布的世界经济展望相比，分别上调0.2个百分点和0.3个百分点。 中国政府提出了2025年国内生产总值（GDP）增长率定为5%左右的目标。IMF以政府的宏观经济政策 和中美双方11月实施的关税下调为由上调了预测值。 由于中国政府提出了遏制过度降价、生产和投资的"反内卷"政策等，预计2025年平均为0%的通货膨胀 率到2026年将上升至0.8%。 报告指出，持续的房地产不景气、地方政府的财政恶化、消费者心理低迷正在导致内需疲软和通货紧缩 压力。从中期来看，生产率低下和老龄化将拖累经济增长率。 报告建议称，作为政府的政策，有必要优先考虑"摆脱对出口和投资的过度依赖，转向消费主导的增长 模式"。为了扩大内需，需要采取财政刺激政策和社会保障制度，加 ...

Group 1 - The IMF has raised its forecast for China's economic growth, predicting a growth rate of 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which is an increase of 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous report in October [1][3] - The Chinese government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, influenced by macroeconomic policies and the reduction of tariffs between China and the US implemented in November [3] - The report highlights ongoing issues such as a sluggish real estate market, deteriorating local government finances, and weak consumer sentiment, which are contributing to soft domestic demand and deflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - The IMF forecasts an average inflation rate of 0% for 2025, rising to 0.8% by 2026, due to the government's "anti-involution" policies aimed at curbing excessive price cuts, production, and investment [1][3] - The report suggests that the government should prioritize shifting from an export and investment-driven growth model to a consumption-driven one, emphasizing the need for fiscal stimulus policies and social security reforms to boost domestic demand [3]