消费者信心分化

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2025麦肯锡报告:中国消费,3大趋势
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-06-06 00:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese consumer market has entered a "new normal" characterized by single-digit growth, which reflects a slowdown compared to the previous double-digit growth, but the actual situation may not be as bleak as perceived [4][6][11] - The report from McKinsey indicates that the annual total consumption is expected to grow by 2.3% in 2025, which is consistent with the 2024 survey's expectation of 2.4%, showing resilience in consumer behavior [7][8] - Key factors supporting this growth include the steady progress of urbanization, with the urbanization rate increasing from 65.2% in 2022 to 67.0% in 2024, leading to an expected 0.9% growth in urban households in 2025 [9][10] Group 2 - Consumer confidence is stabilizing but shows significant differentiation among different demographics, with 74% of respondents expressing optimism about the macroeconomic situation in 2024, slightly down from 76% in 2023 [16][18] - The report highlights that 81% of consumers aware of recent government stimulus policies feel more confident about the economy, indicating the effectiveness of these policies in stabilizing expectations [22][24] - There is a notable structural change in consumer confidence, with rural high-income Z generation (ages 18-25) showing an 88% optimism rate, while urban high-income groups exhibit declining confidence levels [25][26][31] Group 3 - Consumers are increasingly making purchasing decisions based on "hard logic," focusing on personal asset value and actual income rather than solely on optimistic future expectations [33][35] - Spending intentions are shifting towards areas that enhance personal value, such as education and health services, with a net spending intention of 34% for education and 26% for health services, indicating a willingness to invest in personal development [39][40][44] - Conversely, there is a decline in spending intentions for consumer electronics and household appliances, reflecting a change in consumer priorities towards value and necessity rather than mere ownership [43][44][45]