1月6日，红旗连锁盘中上涨2.02%，截至13:59，报6.05元/股，成交3.96亿元，换手率5.80%，总市值 82.28亿元。 分红方面，红旗连锁A股上市后累计派现15.62亿元。近三年，累计派现9.26亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，红旗连锁十大流通股东中，香港中央结算有限公司位居第四大流 通股东，持股3522.85万股，相比上期减少1997.74万股。南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第十大流通 股东，持股622.61万股，相比上期减少25.05万股。 责任编辑：小浪快报 资料显示，成都红旗连锁股份有限公司位于四川省成都市高新区西区迪康大道7号，成立日期2000年6月 22日，上市日期2012年9月5日，公司主营业务涉及便利超市的连锁经营。主营业务收入构成为：食品 44.38%，烟酒35.42%，日用百货12.32%，其他业务收入7.88%。 红旗连锁所属申万行业为：商贸零售-一般零售-超市。所属概念板块包括：社区团购、新零售、微信概 念、共享经济、融资融券等。 截至12月10日，红旗连锁股东户数6.86万，较上期增加5.19%；人均流通股16699股，较上期减少 4.93% ...

京沪两大枢纽机场的免税市场格局迎来重大变革。 截自中国中免公告 就在本月中旬，上海机场免税项目也完成新一轮招标。中免集团中标上海浦东国际机场T2航站楼及虹桥国际 机场T1航站楼相关免税店项目，杜福睿（上海）商业有限公司中标浦东机场T1航站楼及S1卫星厅国际区域 场地。 两轮招标结束后，京沪机场免税店经营主体全面更替，日上免税行（上海）有限公司（下称"日上"）正式退 出两大枢纽机场运营。 近日，首都机场免税项目中标结果公布：中国中免全资子公司中免集团中标T3航站楼经营权，王府井集团则 拿下T2航站楼标的，经营期限最长不超过八年。 据悉，日上是国内首家经营机场免税店的外资企业，一直运营北京首都机场（T2和T3航站楼）、上海浦东 机场（T1、T2）和上海虹桥机场（T1航站楼）。而据此前消息，日上此次出局，原因是未能获得公司大股 东支持投标，而日上目前的控股股东，正是中免集团。 据媒体报道，有知情人士透露，中免之所以否决日上参与竞标京沪两大机场的免税店项目，是因为被要求不 能与外资合作免税业务。这也意味着，日上正一步步退出国内机场免税店运营的舞台。 公开资料显示，中国中免成立于1984年，主要从事以免税为主的旅游零售 ...

12月29日，记者从自治区商务厅获悉，购在中国—2025广西惠享暖冬消费月系列活动全面启动以 来，以"政府+企业+金融"组合拳激活消费市场，让市民在冬日里收获满满实惠与快乐。 今年以来，广西消费市场持续升温，1—11月全区限额以上单位零售业销售额增长8.4%，较1—10 月提升1.4个百分点。此次消费月活动精准对接市民需求，"组合拳"式举措持续释放消费潜力。截至目 前，全区汽车购新补贴活动成效显著，带动新车销售超11.8万辆，拉动汽车销售金额超163亿元，成为 拉动消费增长的"主力军"；购物及畅行消费券核销超75万份，带动商品及油品消费近1.6亿元；餐饮和 住宿消费券领用超51万份，直接拉动消费7235万元，全方位激活消费市场活力。在活动带动下，全区限 额以上单位零售业中新能源汽车、通讯器材类、家电类、化妆品类、体育娱乐用品类等升级类商品销售 额分别增长20.7%、42.6%、28.5%、11.5%、4.6%，日用品类、烟酒类、粮油食品类等基本生活类商品 销售额分别增长25.7%、21.5%、10.8%。 据悉，消费者可通过云闪付、美团、携程、抖音、一键游广西等平台，领取商超购物、加油、餐 饮、住宿等各类消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hongqi Chain's stock price has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.14% and a year-to-date increase of 2.50% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of December 30, Hongqi Chain's stock price is 5.94 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 8.078 billion yuan [1] - The stock has seen a net outflow of 11.4483 million yuan from main funds, with significant selling pressure [1] - Over the past five trading days, the stock has decreased by 3.41%, while it has increased by 6.26% over the past 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hongqi Chain reported operating revenue of 7.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.48%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 383 million yuan, down 1.89% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.562 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 926 million yuan distributed in the last three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of December 10, the number of shareholders for Hongqi Chain is 68,600, an increase of 5.19% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 4.93% to 16,699 shares [2] - The fourth largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 35.2285 million shares, a decrease of 19.9774 million shares from the previous period [3]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group has secured significant contracts for duty-free operations at major airports, enhancing its market position and expected to positively impact future performance [1][2] Group 1: Recent Contracts - China Duty Free Group's subsidiary won the bid for the duty-free project at Beijing Capital International Airport, with a minimum operating fee of 480 million yuan in the first year and a sales commission of 5% [1] - The company also won contracts for duty-free stores at Shanghai Pudong and Hongqiao International Airports, establishing a joint venture with Shanghai Airport, where it holds a 51% stake [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of the year, China Duty Free Group reported revenues of 39.86 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.42 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 7.34% and 18.89% respectively [3] Group 3: Business Strategy - The company is optimizing its product offerings, shifting focus from traditional categories like cosmetics and tobacco to high-demand items such as electronics and health products [3] - Membership numbers have exceeded 45 million, with increasing engagement and repurchase rates, indicating a strong customer loyalty strategy [3] Group 4: Policy and Market Adaptation - The company is actively involved in providing feedback on operational challenges to government departments, aiming for continuous policy improvements that align with market needs [4] - Recent sales data from Hainan's duty-free market shows positive growth, attributed to product optimization, enhanced customer experience, and effective marketing strategies targeting younger consumers [4]

12月24日，新黄河记者从山东省统计局获悉，1-11月，山东实现社会消费品零售总额38143.9亿元，同 比增长5.2%。其中，11月当月实现社会消费品零售总额3821.8亿元，增长3.5%。 基本生活类商品增势稳定。1-11月，山东限上粮油食品类、饮料类、烟酒类、日用品类零售额分别增长 10.4%、12.5%、13.0%和17.1%，除粮油食品类增速与1-10月持平外，其他分别较1-10月增速加快2.0、 0.2、0.3个百分点，合计拉动限上零售额增长2.5个百分点。 部分升级类商品增速较快。手机、平板电脑等通信计算机设备新品发售，带动相关升级类消费需求不断 释放。1-11月份，限额以上单位通信器材类、文化办公用品类商品零售额分别增长28.2%、20.7%，延续 两位数增长态势，合计拉动限上零售额增长1.5个百分点。 线上消费带动作用明显。在网购促销与国补政策双重利好作用下，线上消费活力进一步释放，网上零售 规模稳步增加。1—11月，山东限上实物商品网上零售额增长16.7%，快于同期限上零售额增速11.0个百 分点。限上实物商品网上零售额占限上零售额的比重为17.8%，较1-10月提高0.2个百分点。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the recent developments in consumer spending and the government's stance on expanding domestic demand, indicating a potential shift in consumer sentiment [2][3][5] - The article highlights that the government's recent document titled "Expanding Domestic Demand is a Strategic Move" has led to misconceptions that it solely pertains to consumer spending, while it actually encompasses both consumption and investment [3][4] - The government's attitude towards consumption has shown a gradual improvement, as evidenced by the stronger language used in the latest five-year plan compared to previous plans [4][5] Group 2 - Despite the positive signals from the government, actual consumer stimulus measures remain limited, with only minor initiatives like subsidies for trade-ins and childbirth support [6][7] - The primary issue affecting consumer spending is the decline in household wealth due to falling property prices and pessimistic income expectations, which has led to a lack of motivation for consumers to borrow for spending [7][8] - Recent economic data indicates a significant slowdown in consumer spending, with retail sales growth in November at only 1.3%, marking a long-term low, particularly in categories like home appliances and furniture [10][11][12]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [44]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, reflecting a significant decline in growth rates both year-on-year and month-on-month [10][11]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 0.7% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in October, indicating rising inflationary pressures [10]. - Retail sales growth for goods and dining both saw a month-on-month decline, with goods retailing growing by 1.0% year-on-year and dining income increasing by 3.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Online retail sales from January to November 2025 totaled 144,582 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, which accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales [34]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November 2025 were 43,898 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year and a month-on-month decline of 1.6 percentage points [10][11]. Segment Analysis - In November, among 16 categories of goods, 7 categories (including daily necessities, tobacco and alcohol, home appliances, furniture, petroleum products, automobiles, and building materials) experienced negative growth. Only the Chinese and Western medicine category saw an increase in growth rate [17][18]. - The cultural and office supplies category and communication equipment category showed strong growth, both exceeding 11% [17]. Online Retail - Cumulative online retail sales from January to November reached 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, which is an increase of 1.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [34][36]. - The physical goods online retail sales amounted to 118,193 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.7% [34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverage, social services, and retail, particularly highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, consumer goods, and tourism sectors due to expected policy support for domestic consumption [38][39][42].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 1 、分析方法：以需求增速与投资增速的差值衡量供需矛盾，核心逻辑是若需求增速持续超过投资增速，随 着产能逐渐折旧退出，供需之间的相对关系，有望从"供强需弱"转为"供弱需强"。 2 、指标构建：关键在于需求。将社零、出口、固投与行业层面的上游、中游、下游进行匹配，得到上、 中、下游的需求与投资增速差。 3 、当前现象： 11 月，对于中游，需求与投资增速差进一步上行至 7.6% ，前值为 6.4% ，这一差值自 2024 年 5 月开始持续上行，自 2025 年 3 月开始增速差转正。而上游与下游，观察到截至 10 月的情况， 增速差均尚未超过 0 。 4 、未来推演：从历史数据来看，中游需求与投资增速差持续回升，且增速差能回升至 0 以上，有希望看 到在未来 2 年的时间段内的某个时点，中游 PPI 定基指数止跌回升（即，价格止跌）。我们预计， 2026 年很有可能看到中游 PPI 定基指数持续止跌上行。 事实上，从 2025 年 11 月的数据来看，中游 PPI 环比 出现了久违的环比转正（ 2024 年 6 月 ...

Xm l [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|商贸零售 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 批零社服行业 11 月社零同比+1.3%，关注扩内需战略拉动 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-12-16 shluoyi@gf.com.cn 972918116公共联系人2025-12-16 00:21:06 1 / 7 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 ⚫ 2025 年 11 月社零同比增长 1.3%。据国家统计局，25 年 11 月我国社 零总额 4.4 万亿元/YOY+1.3%，增速较 25 年 10 月下降 1.6pct。其中， 除汽车外社零总额 3.9 万亿元/YOY+2.5%。分地区看，11 月城镇社零 总额 3.8 万亿元/YOY+1.0%，乡村社零总额 0.6 万亿元/YOY+2.8%。 分类型看，11 月商品零售 3.8 万亿元/YOY+1.0%，餐饮收入 0.6 万亿 元/YOY+3.2%，增速较 25 年 10 月分别下降 1.8pct、0.6pct。 ⚫ 分品类看，粮油食品/饮料零售额 ...