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制定未来三年预算框架 政府拟方案稳固财政状况
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-07-08 16:26
Core Viewpoint - The Cambodian government plans to gradually reduce fiscal budget deficits and public debt over the next three years to ensure fiscal stability and sustainability [2][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Strategy - The government is implementing a "gradual fiscal consolidation" approach to balance fiscal stability, support sustained economic growth, and achieve long-term development goals [2]. - The fiscal budget deficit is targeted to be kept below 3% of GDP, decreasing from 3.08% in 2025 to 2.19% in 2026, remaining at 2.19% in 2027, and slightly increasing to 2.32% in 2028 [2][3]. Group 2: Revenue and Expenditure Projections - Total government revenue is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.3%, reaching 14.43% of GDP by 2028 [3]. - Total government expenditure is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 7.8%, reaching 16.74% of GDP by 2028, slightly lower than 16.83% in 2025 [3]. - Capital expenditure is expected to decrease by 10.9% in 2026 compared to 2025 due to a significant reduction in foreign aid and concessional loans [3]. Group 3: Taxation and Economic Context - Despite the economic recovery in 2023, government tax revenue has not increased correspondingly, with a significant slowdown in tax growth from 2021 to 2023 [4]. - The new investment law providing generous tax incentives has contributed to the decline in tax revenue, prompting recommendations for the government to expand the tax base while implementing tax reductions [4]. - The IMF has noted that due to weakened economic momentum and increased tax exemptions, the budget deficit is expected to rise to 3% of GDP this year, slightly higher than 2.8% last year [4].