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报告建议供需双轮政策驱动 释放消费升级潜力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 10:50
Core Viewpoint - The rapid implementation of consumption-boosting policies, such as "trade-in for new," has led to an increase in the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales from 4% in January-February to 6.4% in May, indicating a stronger support for economic growth from consumption in the second quarter. However, short-term policies may not effectively expand total consumption, and deeper issues require higher-level coordination and institutional breakthroughs [1] Demand Side: "Increase Income, Strengthen Security, Stabilize Expectations" - Demand-side reforms focus on enhancing household consumption capacity and willingness through three aspects: increasing income, strengthening social security, and stabilizing market expectations [2] - The report suggests that income increase should address both primary and secondary distribution, advocating for a higher proportion of labor remuneration and synchronized wage growth with productivity [2] - For social security, the report recommends a nationwide coordination of social insurance and significantly improving the basic pension and medical insurance benefits for urban and rural residents [3] - To stabilize expectations, a policy transmission system anchored to an inflation target of 2%-3% CPI is proposed, requiring coordinated fiscal and monetary policies to stabilize and boost domestic demand [3] Supply Side: "Reduce Costs, Strengthen Incentives, Expand Access, Supplement Talent" - Supply-side reforms are increasingly seen as a key lever for driving domestic demand growth, focusing on reducing institutional costs and efficiently allocating resources [4] - The report highlights the need to lower operational burdens on service industry enterprises, addressing issues such as high land costs and complicated regulatory processes [4] - A dual tax incentive system combining value-added tax and consumption tax is recommended to align local fiscal distribution mechanisms with local consumption capabilities [5] - The report also calls for breaking down institutional barriers that hinder private and foreign investment in public services and improving the talent system in the service industry to alleviate structural shortages of skilled labor [5]