Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic coal tar market has stabilized after a decline since May, with mainstream transaction prices rising from 3100 CNY per ton in early May to around 3300 CNY by the end of June, indicating a clear stabilization trend for the second half of the year [1] - The coal tar market experienced a "V-shaped" price movement from January to May, reaching near five-year lows, primarily due to the cancellation of hazardous waste policies affecting regional coal tar [1][2] - The supply-demand balance has improved significantly since May, with reduced supply and stable demand contributing to a favorable market environment for coal tar [2] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - As of June 27, the capacity utilization rate of major coking enterprises in China was 73.57%, a decrease of 2.7 percentage points, indicating a potential reduction in coal tar supply [2] - Many large intermediaries have reduced their outflow of coal tar, leading to a decrease in actual transaction volumes, while some coking enterprises are lowering prices to clear inventory [2] - The exit of approximately 5 million tons of coking capacity in Shandong will significantly reduce coal tar supply in that region, suggesting a potential end to the current adjustment phase [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises remained stable in June, between 51% and 53%, while carbon black enterprises saw an increase in their operating rate to 62.39%, up 9.8 percentage points from the beginning of the month [3] - Despite being in a loss position, deep processing enterprises in resource-rich regions are beginning to see marginal profits, supported by rising carbon black consumption [3] - The restart of maintenance plans for some deep processing enterprises is expected to increase their operating rates, indicating a potential for improved demand in July [3] Group 4: Market Sentiment - Traders are increasingly adopting a wait-and-see approach, with reduced transaction volumes and some inventory flowing into traders' warehouses, suggesting a potential for a new round of speculative activity [4] - Although there is potential for demand growth in July, the traditional off-peak season in July and August may limit significant demand increases, leading to a cautious market sentiment [4] - Overall, the market is expected to experience a phase of consolidation in July, with limited volatility, while the second half of the year may see a gradual warming trend in demand [4]