基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20260104 国际油价小幅上涨，草甘膦、环氧丙烷价格下跌 一月份建议关注：1、低估值行业龙头公司；2、"反内卷"对相关子行业供给端影响；3、 下游需求旺盛，自主可控日益关键背景下的电子材料公司与涨价背景下的部分新能源材料 公司。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 ◼ 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 证券分析师：赵泰 tai.zhao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525100001 ◼ 本周（12.29-01.04）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 32 个品种价格上涨，29 个品种价 格下跌，39 个品种价格稳定。跟踪的产品中 51%的产品月均价环比上涨，39%的产品月均 价环比下跌，10%的产品月均价环比持平。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是苯乙烯（FOB 韩 国）、煤焦油（山西）、 ...

（来源：炭黑产业网） 炭黑行情分析 PART.01 预计煤焦油维持高位运整走势；炭黑当下主要任务是接单、落实涨幅。 （来源：炭黑产业网） 炭黑行情分析 炭黑进入供需僵持，价格整理阶段。上下游均在观望本周油价走向。 供应面，除N330货源稍有紧张外，工厂缺货情况明显缓解。当前刚需采购客户谨慎观望情绪增加，对 于高位价格接受能不足。炭黑行业库存仍集中在社会库存和下游轮胎企业，据了解部分轮胎企业已将采 购订单下至春节之后。 煤焦油行情分析 PART.02 今日云南、四川地区的煤焦油竞拍价格呈现小幅上行走势。供需面利好主导，市场对于本周焦油预期看 好。第四轮提降落地 ，焦化行业亏损，影响后续开工恢复积极性。深加工运营盈利，刚需仍存，且多 数深加工产品均已跟涨价格。 后市预测 PART.03 后市预测 PART.03 预计煤焦油维持高位运整走势；炭黑当下主要任务是接单、落实涨幅。 PART.01 炭黑进入供需僵持，价格整理阶段。上下游均在观望本周油价走向。 供应面，除N330货源稍有紧张外，工厂缺货情况明显缓解。当前刚需采购客户谨慎观望情绪增加，对 于高位价格接受能不足。炭黑行业库存仍集中在社会库存和下游轮胎企业，据了 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].

格隆汇12月29日丨山西焦化(600740.SH)在互动平台表示，公司主要销售产品有冶金焦、甲醇、工业 萘、煤焦油、焦化苯、改质沥青、炭黑等，截止目前公司没有天然气产品销售。 ...

格隆汇12月29日丨山西焦化(600740.SH)公布，主要产品有冶金焦、甲醇、工业萘、煤焦油、焦化苯、 改质沥青、炭黑等，截止目前公司未生产天然气。 ...

企业产能利用率提升 供应端的持续宽松，进一步加剧了市场降温态势。数据显示，截至12月第三周，国内焦化企业周度产能利用率保持在73%以上， 较11月的低位相比提升了2%左右，煤焦油产出量平稳增长。虽然近期焦炭价格已历经两轮下调，但原料端成本下降带动焦企利润 增加，多数焦企生产速度暂未放缓，只是局部地区由于煤耗指标殆尽，开工率小幅下降。整体来看，国内焦企开工水平相对较为 稳定，短期内不会出现明显下降。 更值得关注的是，煤焦油行业集中度提升正放大市场供需变化的影响。平煤神马所属焦化企业一位经营负责人介绍，随着近些年 来煤焦油加氢技术的深度应用，煤焦油深加工企业已基本实现规模化、集中化，行业呈现"头部集中、中小企业差异化竞争"格 局。如宝武集团、信诺立兴集团、宝舜集团、山西焦化等龙头企业通过并购整合形成规模优势，单厂年产能普遍达30万吨以上， 部分企业形成年产950万吨的产能规模。 11月中旬以来，国内煤焦油(主要指高温煤焦油)市场经历了1个月的回暖阶段，至12月上旬触顶至成交价3460元(吨价，下同)，环 比涨幅达14%。然而，进入12月中旬后受下游产业链市场价格普降、企业产能利用率提升等因素影响，市场行情走软。截 ...

11月中旬以来，国内煤焦油（主要指高温煤焦油）市场经历了1个月的回暖阶段，至12月上旬触顶至成 交价3460元（吨价，下同），环比涨幅达14%。然而，进入12月中旬后受下游产业链市场价格普降、企 业产能利用率提升等因素影响，市场行情走软。截至12月19日，煤焦油主流成交价已跌至3300元左右， 周跌幅达4%，引发业内气氛由热变冷，短期下行压力持续显现。 "本轮由强转弱行情受多重因素导致，下游预期需求萎缩、焦企货源稳步增长与贸易商看空气氛形成共 振，引发贸易商快速释放库存并对企业压低竞拍报价，对后市的消极因素或进一步加大。"辽宁贸易商 陈强分析说。 下游产业链集体走弱 下游产业链集体走弱煤焦油市场的降温源于下游深加工产业链的集体走弱。据隆众资讯统计，12月第一 周开始，煤焦油深加工下游产品行情已呈现走弱趋势，第二周开始出现全面回落。截至12月18日，山东 市场炭黑、煤沥青、工业萘、蒽油、洗油、酚油、轻油成交价分别已至5800元、4150元、4050元、3350 元、3440元、3450元、3750元，周跌幅为1.7%、1.2%、1.22%、2.9%、1%、5.5%、1.3%，国内其他地 区也出现不同程度的下跌走 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to continue its daily related transactions with Shanxi Coking Coal Group and its affiliates in 2026 to stabilize raw material supply and product sales, which will enhance financial management and capital operation capabilities [1][19]. Group 1: Daily Related Transactions Overview - The company intends to engage in procurement of raw materials (coal, coal tar, crude benzene, etc.), product sales, and labor services with Shanxi Coking Coal Group and its affiliates in 2026 [2][3]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group is a leading global producer and supplier of coking coal, established in October 2001, with a focus on coal production, processing, and sales [2][3]. - Shanxi Coking Coal Group is the controlling shareholder of Shanxi Coking Group Co., Ltd., which is a comprehensive coal utilization enterprise and a pilot for circular economy [2][3]. Group 2: Transaction Approval Process - The proposal for the expected daily related transactions for 2026 was approved by the independent directors at the fourth meeting of the ninth board in December 2025, confirming its alignment with the company's operational environment [4][37]. - The board meeting on December 15, 2025, approved the proposal with a vote of 3 in favor and no opposition, with related directors abstaining from the vote [4][37]. - The proposal will be submitted to the shareholders' meeting for further approval, where related shareholders will abstain from voting [4][5]. Group 3: Previous Transaction Performance - From January to November 2025, the actual related transaction amount with affiliates was 3.791 billion yuan, with no financial transactions beyond deposits and loans [6]. Group 4: Expected Transaction Amount and Categories - The expected amount for daily related transactions in 2026 is projected to be between 3.446 billion and 7.29 billion yuan, with raw coal prices estimated at 900 to 1600 yuan per ton [7][19]. Group 5: Purpose and Impact of Related Transactions - The related transactions are essential for the company's normal production and operations, optimizing raw material sources and stabilizing supply channels, which will enhance sales channels and improve cash flow [19].

Summary of Guanghui Energy Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Guanghui Energy - **Industry**: Coal and Chemical Industry Key Points Coal Production and Sales - Guanghui Energy expects coal production in 2026 to be between 70 million to 75 million tons, with sales projected at 60 million to 65 million tons [2][4] - In the first three quarters of the current year, the company achieved nearly 50 million tons of coal production, with a target of approximately 20 million tons for the fourth quarter [4] - The average net profit per ton of coal is around 40 RMB, with current coal prices ranging from 185 to 240 RMB per ton for Baishihu mine and 160 to 210 RMB per ton for Malang mine [2][6] Pricing and Market Dynamics - Coal prices in Xinjiang have seen smaller increases compared to other regions due to the cancellation of previous railway freight discounts and the impact of anti-competition policies [2][6] - The expected price for 5,500 kcal coal is projected to reach 850 to 900 RMB per ton, driven by increased demand as winter temperatures drop [5][15] Chemical Business Performance - The chemical segment reported a loss of 180 million RMB in Q3 due to maintenance, but is expected to perform better in Q4, with profitability anticipated to exceed Q2 levels [2][7] - The methanol project utilizing coal gas has stabilized, turning profitable in September [2][7] Cost Factors - Soil and water conservation fees are approximately 15 RMB per ton of raw coal, with total expected costs around 1.05 billion RMB for the year [2][8] - The company has adjusted its sales strategy to maintain reasonable profits despite these fees [8] Natural Gas Pricing - The price difference for purchased natural gas in Q4 is expected to be between 2 to 3 USD per million British thermal units, with selling prices at 11 to 12 USD per million BTU [2][9] - The company plans to adapt its operational strategies in response to international LNG supply increases and price trends [9] Capital Expenditure and Project Development - Annual capital expenditures are projected to remain between 2 billion to 3 billion RMB, focusing on enhancing existing projects rather than new investments [3][12] - The coal chemical phase II project is progressing, with significant upgrades planned for coal utilization facilities [12] Future Outlook for Xinjiang Coal Production - Xinjiang's coal production is expected to stabilize within the "15th Five-Year Plan," with an estimated output of 540 million tons in 2025, maintaining levels similar to the previous year [5][13] - The region's coal production is influenced by strict overproduction checks, but its strategic importance for national energy security remains high [13] Price Sensitivity for Transportation - Current pricing levels in the Huangbohai region support the economic viability of coal transportation from Xinjiang, with a net profit of about 40 RMB per ton even after considering conservation fees [5][16] Conclusion - Guanghui Energy is navigating a complex market environment with strategic adjustments in production, pricing, and project development to ensure profitability and growth in the coal and chemical sectors [2][3][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, Shanxi's energy and chemical industry has achieved significant progress in green transformation [1] - The industrial economy in Shanxi is steadily advancing, with the manufacturing sector becoming the main engine for industrial growth, averaging an 8.1% annual increase [1] - Strategic emerging industries are forming a "half-wall" pattern, with an average annual growth of 8.7% from 2021 to 2024, and their share in manufacturing is expected to rise to 44% by 2024 [1] - Traditional industries are being optimized and upgraded, with an increasing proportion of advanced capacity and a shift towards high-end product structures [1] - The coking industry is enhancing product competitiveness by extending the processing of by-products such as coke oven gas and coal tar [1] - Key industries like steel, coking, and cement are focusing on energy conservation and carbon reduction, achieving energy consumption levels per unit product that exceed the national average [1] - Shanxi has successfully cultivated 71 provincial-level green factories, 3 green parks, and 5 green supply chain management enterprises, improving the overall level of green manufacturing in the province [1] Group 2 - Shanxi is promoting comprehensive resource utilization, focusing on large-scale and high-value utilization of industrial solid waste [2] - Projects such as the comprehensive utilization of coal gangue and the development of new materials from coal gangue are being advanced [2] - The province has cultivated 25 standardized resource recycling enterprises, achieving an annual processing capacity of 11.95 million tons [2] - Companies like Dinoce and Shan'an Longjin are being encouraged to promote the comprehensive utilization of emerging solid waste, such as used batteries and old wind and solar equipment [2] - A diversified resource utilization system is being established, balancing traditional and emerging solid waste [2]