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顺丰控股(002352):动态调优初见成效,加码回购提振信心
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2026-03-31 09:14
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth, with 2025 revenue reaching 308.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.37%, and a net profit of 11.12 billion yuan, up 9.31% year-on-year [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through increased share buybacks, with the total buyback amount adjusted to between 30 billion and 60 billion yuan [7] - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in the coming years, with projected net profits of 12.01 billion yuan in 2026, 13.84 billion yuan in 2027, and 15.94 billion yuan in 2028 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2024A at 284.42 billion yuan, 2025A at 308.23 billion yuan, 2026E at 335.70 billion yuan, 2027E at 366.11 billion yuan, and 2028E at 402.29 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10%, 8%, 9%, 9%, and 10% respectively [2] - The company's net profit is projected to be 10.17 billion yuan in 2024A, 11.12 billion yuan in 2025A, 12.01 billion yuan in 2026E, 13.84 billion yuan in 2027E, and 15.94 billion yuan in 2028E, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 9%, 8%, 15%, and 15% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.02 yuan in 2024A, 2.21 yuan in 2025A, 2.38 yuan in 2026E, 2.75 yuan in 2027E, and 3.16 yuan in 2028E [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company achieved a market share increase to 8.4% in domestic express logistics, with a revenue of 228.56 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth [7] - The company is transitioning its market strategy from scale-driven to value-driven, which is expected to enhance the growth of high-value businesses [7] - The company’s gross profit margin improved to 14.28% in Q4 2025, marking the highest quarterly level for the year [7]