Core Viewpoint - Since early 2025, the U.S. has significantly increased imports, but the accumulation of inventory has lagged behind, raising questions about the sustainability of this import surge and whether "safe" inventory levels will rise [2][57]. Group 1: Import Surge and Inventory Accumulation - The U.S. has experienced a notable surge in imports since early 2025, particularly following the election of Trump, which heightened expectations of increased tariffs. This surge is reflected in data from Chinese exports, U.S. imports, and port activity [2][57]. - In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. imports increased dramatically, with a year-on-year growth rate of 31.4% in March. However, the inventory accumulation during this period was significantly lower, contributing only 2.6 percentage points to GDP growth compared to the 5 percentage points dragged down by imports [6][13][57]. - Monthly data indicates that the growth rate of U.S. imports has consistently outpaced that of inventory accumulation, suggesting a mismatch between import levels and inventory growth [19][57]. Group 2: Understanding the Discrepancy Between Inventory and Imports - The discrepancy between inventory accumulation and imports can be attributed to robust domestic demand and statistical lag in inventory reporting. In the first quarter, while inventory growth increased across most sectors, stable domestic demand, particularly in investment, kept the inventory-to-sales ratio relatively stable at 1.34 in March [3][23][57]. - Inventory growth typically lags behind import growth by about three months due to the time required for goods to be transported and recorded in inventory data. This suggests that the inventory levels are still on an upward trajectory [30][57]. - Since late 2024, excess imports of consumer goods have been sufficient to support approximately 1.3 months of consumption, raising concerns about potential impacts on retail pricing [31][57]. Group 3: Future of Import Demand - The momentum for U.S. imports is likely to diminish after the 90-day tariff suspension period ends, with key tariff deadlines approaching in July and August 2025. This could lead to a reduction in the urgency to import [4][35][57]. - Data suggests that inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand may suppress future import needs. The second quarter may see a lagged increase in inventory growth, coupled with a marginal decline in domestic demand, potentially reducing import momentum in the latter half of the year [4][45][57]. - The level of "safe" inventory remains a source of uncertainty, influenced by trade policy fluctuations and inflation levels. If trade uncertainties persist, companies may opt to maintain higher inventory levels [48][59][57].