Core Viewpoint - The solvent oil market in China is experiencing a downward trend in 2024 due to reduced supply from refinery maintenance, high production costs, and declining demand from downstream industries, leading to a significant drop in both production and apparent demand [1][9]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Solvent oil is a light oil produced from crude oil or other raw materials, used in various industries including coatings, paints, edible oils, printing inks, leather, pesticides, rubber, cosmetics, and mechanical cleaning [2][5]. - The production of solvent oil in China is expected to reach 2.509 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.2% [1][9]. - The apparent demand for solvent oil in 2024 is projected to be 2.543 million tons, down 9.8% compared to the previous year [1][9]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The solvent oil market is characterized by a dual decline in supply and demand, with refinery maintenance leading to reduced market supply and competition from alternative products impacting demand [1][9]. - The real estate sector's downturn is negatively affecting downstream industries such as paints and adhesives, further suppressing solvent oil demand growth [1][9]. Group 3: Price Trends - The average price of solvent oil in China for 2024 is forecasted to be 7,670.99 yuan per ton, a decrease of 323.85 yuan per ton from 2023, reflecting a year-on-year drop of 4.05% [1][9]. - Despite the downward pressure on prices due to reduced demand, the price remains relatively high compared to the past five years due to supply constraints and high production costs [1][9]. Group 4: Import and Export Trade - China maintains a low dependency on imports for solvent oil, with 2024 imports expected to be 42,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%, while exports are projected at 8,300 tons, up 16.3% [1][9]. - The import sources for solvent oil primarily include Singapore, Japan, and the United States, with Singapore being the largest supplier [10][10]. - The export destinations are diverse, with significant volumes going to Myanmar, Hong Kong, Thailand, and Russia [10][10]. Group 5: Future Development Trends - The solvent oil industry is expected to continue evolving towards non-toxic, refined, and specialized products due to increasing environmental regulations and market saturation [11][11]. - The market for high-end solvent oils, such as eco-friendly and high-performance products, is anticipated to expand further [11][11].