2026 年 3 月 2 日 LLDPE：原油风险加剧，上游供应或有收缩 PP：C3 原料或有脉冲，PDH 装置减量延续 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 聚烯烃基本面数据 | 货 | L2605 | | | PP2605 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 | 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | 6597 -1.06% | 565011 | 15671 | 6611 | -0.96% | 484965 | -16989 | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 05合约基差 | -167 | -168 | | -111 | | -135 | | | 05-09合约价差 | -75 | -74 | | -16 | | -17 | | | 现货价格 | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 上游 01 聚酯芳烃 02 煤化工及烯烃 03 氯碱 04 氯碱及轻工 05 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 1、瓶片,短纤 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 1、橡胶 2、纸浆 3、胶版印刷纸 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2026年2月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解-甲苯 脑油-芳烃 汽油-调油估值 Special report on Guotai Juna ...

| 盗角业务资格:证监许可 2012 31- | 9 国贸易员 | 日博 带 参考 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026 | 份格号: F0251 % | | | | | | | | | | | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 在临近的"两会"政策利好预期的支撑下,股指预计以偏强震荡 | 为主。策略上,股指期货中长线多头建议继续持有。 | | | | | | | 宏观金融 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行示利率风险,近期关注日 | 国债 | 震荡 | 本央行利率决策。 | | | | | | | | 近期宏观利多推升铜价,但全球铜库存持续累库压制价格,预计 | 震荡 | 第四十 | 短期铜价震荡运行。 | 近期宏观利好提振有色板块,但国内铝库存大幅累库或拖累铝 | | | | | | | | 震荡 | 价,短期铝价震荡运行。 | 国内氧化铝运行产能下降,但库存进一步累库,短期震荡运行。 | 氧化铝 | 震荡 | | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/27 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2026/02/12 | 62.84 | 67.52 | 66.82 | - | 0.61 | -4.68 | 1.81 | 191.59 | 12.95 | 239.27 | 32.97 | | 2026/02/13 | 62.89 | 67.75 | 67.05 | - | 0.66 | -4.86 | 1.61 | 191.10 | 12.51 | 238.79 | 32.54 | | 2026/02/24 | 65.63 | 70.77 | 68.23 | - | ...

期 货 研 究 PX：尾盘石脑油价格上涨，3 月 MOPJ 目前估价在 620 美元/吨 CFR。2 月 26 日 PX 价格小幅反弹，两 单 4 月亚洲现货均在 929 成交。尾盘实货 4 月在 929/931 商谈，5 月在 928/937 商谈。2 月 26 日 PX 估价在 931 美元/吨，较 2 月 25 日上涨 2 美金。 2026 年 02 月 27 日 对二甲苯：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 PTA：跟随成本波动，区间震荡市 MEG：区间震荡市，多 PTA 空 MEG 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 7382 | 5260 | 3700 | 6658 | 483.6 | | 涨跌 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -64 | -4.7 | | 涨跌幅 | -0.67% | -0.98% | -1.25% | -0.95% | -0.96% | | ...

2月末起逐步恢复。 (1) 出口情绪稍缓, 内需不足上方空间有限。 (2) 下方有反内 卷及成本端支撑。 (1) 甲醇整体受到伊朗局势的影响预期未来进口减量但下游负反 馈明显,多空交织(2) 下游MTO龙头装置停车且部分企业降负荷 生产。(3) 上游库存普遍较低,下游库存普遍中高。 (1) 原油震荡偏强。(2)价格回归合理区间。(3)春节假期. 需求平淡。(4)地缘政治加剧,原油上涨。 6(1)检修较少,开工负荷较高,供应压力偏大。(2)下游改善 不及预期。 (3) 价格回归合理区间。 (4) 地缘政治加剧,原油 上涨。 (1) 2026年全球投产较少,西北地区差别电价有望实行,倒逼 PVC产能出清,未来预期偏乐观。(2)基本面较差。8(3)抢出口 PVC 阶段性放缓。 (1) 宏观情绪暂时消退,盘面重新交易基本面。 (2) 基本面偏 弱,绝对价格低位。 (3) 液氯小幅补贴,现货价格小幅上涨。 (1) 2月CP价格上行,3月买货仍相对紧张。(2)中东地缘冲突 溢价回升,PG节后走势偏强。(3)海外寒潮驱动逻辑逐步放缓 预计基差仍将修复走扩。(4)国内PDH开工率下滑、利润预计季 节性修复,LPG需求端短期偏 ...

国役期货 《2026年1月石脑油船期月报》 2026/2/24 国投期货研究院化工组 庞春艳 Z0011355 王雪忆 Z0023574 1月俄罗斯发运量965.06万桶，环比增长12.3%；中东地区发运量4582.06万桶，环比减少1.38%；美国装船量 |574.65万桶，环比下降6.4%；发运总量较上月增加2.33万桶，环比增加0.04%。各大区中总到港量最高的地区为 东北亚，到港量为3460.8万桶。 上月中国石脑油到港量为1265.37万桶，环比增加65.92万桶，其中来自中东地区 市场概览 的进口占比最高，为52.6%，其次为南亚以及地中海和北非;来自东北亚、南亚的货源量有所减少，来自中东、 地中海和北非的进口量均有所增加。 | | 俄罗斯发运 | 中东发运 | 美国发运 | 东北亚-中国 | 中东-中国 | 俄罗斯-中国 | 南亚-中国 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月 | 802.6 | 3948.19 | 633.5 | 143.64 | 373.82 | 175.34 | 132.99 | | 20 ...

富油公司1120石脑油加氢装置承担着石脑油精制与产品提质任务，工艺流程复杂、操作精准度要求高。 为突破传统"人盯屏"模式在效率与安全方面的局限性，公司以"感知—决策—执行"智能闭环为核心，开 展系统性技术升级。通过构建覆盖原料预处理、反应控制、产品分离全流程的自动化控制系统，实现装 置工艺参数秒级监测与动态调控。目前装置自控率达100%，工艺平稳率稳定在90%以上，关键参数波 动范围缩小约30%，人工干预量相比传统模式下降95%，在提升安全水平、运行效率的同时，实现产品 收率优化、能耗降低。 中化新网讯近日，陕煤集团神木煤化工富油公司1120石脑油加氢装置"黑屏操作"连续稳定运行时长突破 500小时，标志着化工板块"黑灯工厂"建设取得阶段性成果。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of pure benzene is supported by the geopolitical influence on crude oil, but its fundamentals show a pattern of "high inventory, increasing supply, and differentiated demand structure". Short - term prices are driven by crude oil and aromatics chain sentiment, and a clear trend depends on substantial inventory reduction [2] - Styrene is in a stage of "supply recovery and seasonal weakening of demand". Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under cost influence, but there is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation after the holiday [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamentals - **Price**: On February 24, the spot price of styrene remained flat at 7,594 yuan/ton, and the spot price of East China pure benzene also remained flat at 5,990 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On February 24, the closing price of Brent crude oil was 62.8 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil was 67.5 dollars/barrel, both unchanged. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5,990 yuan/ton, also unchanged [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory of pure benzene at East China ports was 30.5 tons, unchanged. The inventory of styrene at East China ports was 10.9 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons [2] - **Demand**: The overall downstream operation rate of pure benzene increased. The downstream of styrene entered the off - season, and the operation rate decreased slightly except for ABS [2] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: The cost support is strengthened due to geopolitical influence on crude oil. The domestic production capacity utilization rate has increased, and the import volume is expected to rise. The demand is differentiated. The short - term price is affected by sentiment, and a clear trend requires inventory reduction [2] - **Styrene**: The production capacity utilization rate of styrene is recovering, and the supply is increasing. The port inventory has not increased seasonally, but the factory inventory is rising. The demand is differentiated. Short - term prices may rise, but there is a risk of decline due to inventory accumulation [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - The spot price of styrene remained unchanged at 7,594 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene remained unchanged at 5,990 yuan/ton. The price of pure benzene (South Korea FOB) decreased by 0.08% to 777 dollars/ton, and the price of pure benzene (US FOB) increased by 0.28% to 918.2 dollars/ton. The price of pure benzene (China CFR) remained unchanged at 779 dollars/ton [5] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - The production of styrene in China increased by 0.98% from 34.8 tons to 35 tons, and the production of pure benzene increased by 3.29% from 42.9 tons to 44.3 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 7.95% from 10.1 tons to 10.9 tons, and the port inventory of pure benzene in the whole country remained unchanged at 30.5 tons [6] (3) Operation Rate - Among the downstream of pure benzene, the operation rate of styrene increased by 0.68% to 70%, the operation rate of caprolactam decreased by 0.41% to 73.2%, the operation rate of phenol decreased by 2.29% to 86%, and the operation rate of aniline increased by 0.51% to 89%. Among the downstream of styrene, the operation rate of EPS decreased by 1.70% to 56.2%, the operation rate of ABS decreased to 64.4%, and the operation rate of PS decreased by 0.40% to 55.2% [7] 3. Industry News - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.27 dollars, a 0.38% decline, to 66.31 dollars/barrel. Brent April crude oil futures fell 0.27 dollars, a 0.38% decline, to 71.49 dollars/barrel [8] - On Monday, the CFR price of Hong Kong - Lian PX fell 1.33 dollars to 924.67 dollars [8] - The European Parliament suspended the approval of the EU - US trade agreement [8] - The US may launch a military strike against Iran on February 23 or 24 [8] - The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index in February was 0.2, the highest since July 2025, with an expected value of - 0.5 [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene price difference, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [9][19][23][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, A-shares are likely to have a restorative rebound. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the prices of various commodities have different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Before the holiday, the A-share market adjusted significantly due to the rise of risk aversion. During the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market rebounded, and technology sectors such as AI and robotics attracted wide attention. It is expected that A-shares will have a restorative rebound after the holiday [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest rate risks in the short term. Attention should be paid to the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro situation during the holiday is favorable for the market, and the copper price may fluctuate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Aluminum**: The macro situation is mixed, and the aluminum price will fluctuate in the short term. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and there are disturbances in the supply of a large alumina enterprise in North China. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [1]. - **Zinc**: The negotiation between the United States and Iran has reached a deadlock, which has led to concerns about the supply of Iranian zinc mines and supported the zinc price in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of downstream enterprises after the holiday [1]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel price rose slightly during the holiday. Although the tailings landslide in the Indonesian QMB project has limited actual impact, there are still concerns about nickel ore supply. The nickel price will fluctuate strongly in the short term and is still affected by the resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector. Attention should be paid to changes in Indonesian policies and macro sentiment. In the long term, the high global nickel inventory may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material nickel-iron price remains firm, the spot transaction of stainless steel is weak, the social inventory has increased slightly, and the steel mills' maintenance and production reduction have increased in February. The stainless steel futures will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the holiday. It is recommended to go long at a low price in the short term and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty of recent macro events is relatively large. Under the influence of US tariffs and geopolitics, the short-term volatility of the tin price may increase. Although the long-term trend of the tin price remains unchanged, investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection in the short term [1]. - **Precious Metals**: The judgment of the Supreme Court that the "IEEPA tariff" is illegal and Trump's new tariff policy have intensified market concerns about uncertainty. Coupled with the escalation of the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran, the demand for hedging has supported the price of precious metals. The macro situation is favorable for platinum, and the balance expectation of palladium may improve, which may further support the palladium price in the short term [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The data of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 to 20 showed a double decline in production and exports. The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded and then faced pressure during the holiday and is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean oil has risen under the influence of biodiesel and crude oil prices. The domestic soybean oil may open higher but lacks new driving forces for the time being. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Rapeseed**: The ICE rapeseed rose slightly during the holiday and may be affected by US biodiesel and potential domestic import demand. Attention should be paid to the release of the EPA biodiesel policy and the anti-dumping arbitration announcement of Canadian rapeseed in China [1]. - **Cotton**: The domestic new cotton crop has a strong expectation of a bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream startup rate remains low, but the inventory of spinning mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for replenishment. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding direct subsidy prices and cotton planting areas, the intention of cotton planting areas next year, weather during the planting period, and the peak demand season from March to April [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new sugar supply is increasing. The short-selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below, but the short-term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market [1]. - **Corn**: After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of on-the-ground grain in the production areas. However, the quality of Northeast grain is relatively dry this year, and the selling pressure is expected to be limited under the support of the rigid replenishment demand of the middle and lower reaches. In addition, attention should be paid to the release of policy grain and the implementation of import restrictions after the holiday. The overall expectation is to maintain range fluctuations [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US tariff policy has changed during the holiday, but the external market fluctuated little, which has limited guidance for the domestic soybean meal market. The Brazilian soybean premium has declined, and the soybean meal market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to Sino-US trade dynamics and Brazilian selling pressure in the near future [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: There is no obvious positive news for coniferous pulp during the Spring Festival. The previous positive factors on the supply side have basically faded. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term. Attention should be paid to the port inventory after the holiday [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has risen, the log arrivals in February have decreased, and the external quotation is expected to rise. The futures market has an upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and the sentiment in the commodity market has cooled down. The short-term supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the sentiment in the commodity market is changeable, the risk appetite of funds has decreased, the downstream demand has weakened before the holiday, and the basis difference has expanded to the high level of the same period [1]. - **Butadiene**: The cost end of butadiene has strong support, the overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term domestic butadiene export expectation. The profit of private cis-butadiene plants has remained in a loss state recently, and the expectation of maintenance and load reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback has been gradually realized. The butadiene market is in a state of destocking, and the high inventory of cis-butadiene is still a potential negative factor. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction of cis-butadiene before the Spring Festival and the trading performance of the butadiene market. The short-term market is expected to fluctuate widely, and the BR still has an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PX**: The PX-mixed xylene price difference has narrowed to $150, which is still enough to support PX manufacturers to purchase mixed xylene as raw materials. PX maintains fundamental resilience during the high-level correction, and there are still risks of crude oil prices due to the Iranian geopolitical risk. The downstream PTA industry continues to be strong, and the domestic PTA output in January is expected to reach a new high, and there is no plan to reduce production during the Spring Festival, and there is no new PTA production capacity throughout the year [1]. - **Ethylene**: The production profit rate of naphtha cracking has declined due to the rise in raw material prices. The price difference between ethylene and naphtha has reached $83. Several Korean ethylene producers plan to maintain the operating rate of their cracking devices in February. The ethylene glycol price is waiting at a low level [1]. - **Styrene**: The high inventory of pure benzene has weak import demand, and the price difference between the United States and Asia is $88, which is not enough to open the arbitrage window. The Asian styrene price and economic situation have recovered, mainly driven by supply tightening, unexpected shutdowns in the Middle East, surging export demand, and rising cost ends. The continuous strong export, short-term supply gap caused by domestic maintenance, and speculative buying driven by chemical futures support the firmness of the spot price [1]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is generally affected by the Iranian situation, and the future import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The leading MTO device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but the Fude plant restarted on January 25. The Iranian situation has eased, but the risk cannot be completely ruled out. The freight has risen due to the cold air in the inland area, and the inventory pressure of enterprises in the northwest has increased, and they have reduced prices to sell goods [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production, and the differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. The future expectation is relatively optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor, and the export rush has slowed down stage by stage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in February has risen, and the purchase in March is still relatively tight. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short-term risk premium has declined. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave has gradually slowed down, and the market expectation is weakening. It is expected that the basis will gradually expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short-term demand side of LPG is bearish, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. The port inventory has been continuously decreasing, but the domestic civil gas is relatively sufficient, showing a divergence between propane and PG [1]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The freight rate peaked and fell before the holiday. Airlines are still cautious about tentative resume flights. Airlines are expected to have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off-season in March [1].