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拼搭玩具|观过去,乐高一枝独秀,展未来,本土品牌三维崛起
中信证券研究· 2025-03-01 00:55
Core Viewpoint - The Chinese building block toy market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by demand that stimulates supply-side technological advancements, with domestic brands quickly narrowing the quality gap with overseas brands. The high pricing of overseas leading brands creates a broad space in the mass price segment, while local brands can respond to market demands more swiftly and effectively, presenting numerous opportunities [1][10]. Global Toy Industry - The global toy market is slowly expanding, reaching a size of $100.9 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of +1.3% from 2014 to 2023. The building block toy market is valued at $21.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of +6.1%, increasing its share of the toy industry from 13.9% in 2014 to 21.1% in 2023, supported by strong interactivity and IP compatibility [2]. Building Block Toy Industry - Building block toys are primarily divided into standard block systems (e.g., LEGO) and character building systems (e.g., Bandai, Blokus). Different systems result in variations in product fidelity, mobility, and part compatibility. The industry has high production barriers, with overseas giants typically owning their factories, while domestic players adopt a mix of self-built and outsourced supply chains [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The global building block toy industry is highly concentrated, with the top three companies holding an 84% market share in 2023, of which LEGO accounts for 75%. LEGO has maintained its market position despite patent expirations, demonstrating deep barriers to entry. The brand's high-end positioning contrasts with the profit compression faced by mass-market brands [5][6]. Chinese Building Block Toy Market - The Chinese building block toy market is projected to grow significantly, with a CAGR of +9.5% for the overall toy market and +22.1% for the building block category from 2023 to 2028. In 2023, per capita toy consumption in China is only 23.5% and 11.9% of that in Japan and the U.S., respectively, indicating substantial growth potential [7]. Opportunities for Domestic Brands - The Chinese building block toy industry has three main breakout lines: 1. Opportunities in product categories, channels, and audience dimensions, particularly in character-based building toys where LEGO's performance is limited. 2. Focus on Chinese original IP and popular overseas IP themes, with the potential for the IP toy market to double in size from 2023 to 2028. 3. Expanding ecosystems through building block categories by adding scenes and content, leveraging existing IP matrices [8][10].