生猪屠宰毛利季节性波动
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预计2026年生猪屠宰毛利或延续季节性波动规律,均价或小幅上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-17 06:46
Core Insights - The pig slaughtering industry is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, reaching a near five-year high with a year-on-year increase of 341.85%, resulting in a turnaround from losses to profits [1] - Seasonal consumption will continue to drive slaughtering profits in 2026, although the holiday effect is expected to weaken, leading to a slight increase in average slaughter profits [1] Group 1: Profit Trends - As of October 31, 2025, the average gross profit for pig slaughtering reached 31.99 yuan per head, marking a year-on-year increase of 341.85% and a return to profitability [1] - The gross profit exhibited clear seasonal fluctuations, peaking at 58.94 yuan per head in January due to high demand during the Spring Festival, followed by a decline post-holiday [1] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period saw a significant rebound in gross profit, supported by increased demand and lower procurement costs [1] Group 2: 2026 Forecast - For 2026, the gross profit trend is expected to follow a "high at both ends, low in the middle" pattern, with higher profits before the Spring Festival and during the curing season, and lower profits in July [2] - The average gross profit for 2026 is projected to be 37.26 yuan per head, an increase of 2.69 yuan per head or 7.79% year-on-year, with the highest point expected in February at 60.00 yuan per head and the lowest in July at 17.81 yuan per head [1][2] - During the Spring Festival in mid-February, strong terminal demand is anticipated, leading to a peak in gross profit, while the post-festival period will see a decline in slaughter volume and profit [2]