Core Viewpoint - The pig farming profits are expected to decline after the recovery of production capacity in 2025, while slaughtering margins are showing signs of improvement, indicating a potential shift of profits from upstream to downstream in the pig industry chain [1][9]. Group 1: Pig Farming Profits - In 2025, the average profit for self-breeding pig farming is projected to be 196.64 yuan per head, a decrease of 58.98 yuan per head or 23.07% compared to 2024 [2]. - The average profit for piglet fattening is expected to be 166.18 yuan per head, down by 259.17 yuan per head or 60.93% year-on-year [2]. - The average income from pig farming in 2025 is estimated at 1837.10 yuan per head, a decline of 187.90 yuan per head or 9.28% year-on-year [4]. Group 2: Slaughtering Margins - The average slaughtering margin for pigs in 2025 is projected to be 30.55 yuan per head, an increase of 24.88 yuan per head compared to the previous year [6]. - The daily average slaughter volume for sample enterprises has increased by 8.14% year-on-year, contributing to the improvement in slaughtering margins [8]. - The average cost per head for slaughtering has decreased due to increased slaughter volume, leading to a rise in margins from a low of 12.45 yuan per head in early July to 24.85 yuan per head in mid-August [6][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The pig farming profits are expected to experience a decline followed by a rebound in the latter part of the year, while slaughtering margins are likely to steadily increase [9][10]. - The market for pig farming may remain low in August and September, but demand for heavier pigs is anticipated to rise in the fourth quarter, potentially supporting prices [9]. - Slaughtering margins are expected to increase primarily from September to December, with a peak during the traditional curing season in December [10].

不过，进入2025年以来，猪价再次持续低位运行，或给产业链公司经营和业绩带来新的影响。 多家生猪产业链公司年报出炉 业绩有所分化 总体上看，生猪产业链公司业绩有所分化。受益于去年猪价均价同比上涨及位于成本线之上，生猪养殖 公司2024年业绩普遍增长。相较之下，一些主营业务为生猪屠宰业和肉制品加工业的公司2024年业绩则 出现不同程度下滑。 多家生猪产业链公司日前披露了2024年年报。 养猪企业2024年业绩上升的背景是，2024年猪价均价同比上升，且处于行业成本线以上。牧原股份就在 2024年年报中提及，2024年生猪供应量同比下降，生猪价格呈现先涨后跌形态。2024年一季度，国内生 猪价格处于低位运行，行业仍处于亏损状态，二季度以来，行业产能去化带来供需关系改善，生猪价格 持续上涨，8月达到年内高点，随后生猪价格震荡下行。全年来看，2024年生猪均价同比上升，且处于 行业成本线以上，生猪养殖行业扭亏为盈。农业农村部数据显示，2024年出栏生猪头均盈利214元，比 2023年提高了290元。 不过，一些主营业务为生猪屠宰业和肉制品加工业的上市公司2024年业绩则不同程度下滑。 比如双汇发展（000895）的2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term prices will fluctuate at a low level, and there is a possibility of new lows in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Pig prices are unlikely to rise significantly due to abundant supply in the first half of 2025, but short - term sharp declines are also unlikely as there may be secondary fattening when prices approach 14 yuan/kg. The 2505 contract price is in a relatively reasonable range, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures End 3.1.1 Main Contract Basis - In the context of weakening spot prices and a pessimistic market outlook for April pig prices, the price of the LH2505 contract fluctuated downward this week [2]. - On March 28, 2025, the benchmark ground (Henan) had a base price of 14.53 yuan/kg, and the main contract basis was 1305 yuan/ton [3]. 3.1.2 Price Changes of Each Contract - Far - month contracts continued to fluctuate widely [5]. 3.1.3 Inter - monthly Spread Changes - Affected by the weakening of spot prices, the reverse spread trend of the 5 - 7 and 5 - 9 contracts was obvious in the latter part of the week [7][10]. 3.2 Spot End 3.2.1 Pig Prices and Slaughter Volumes - This week, the slaughter volume began to decline, and pig prices fell in the latter part of the week [13]. 3.2.2 Regional Spreads - The spreads among selected regions were within a relatively reasonable range [15]. 3.2.3 Fat - Standard Price Spreads - The fat - standard price spread continued to decline, which would stimulate farmers to slow down weight gain or even reduce weight [17]. 3.2.4 Fresh Sales and Gross - to - Net Price Spreads - Terminal consumption was relatively stable year - on - year [19]. 3.2.5 Related Product Price Ratios and Fresh - Frozen Spreads - Beef prices have risen recently, increasing the cost - effectiveness of pork [21]. 3.2.6 Breeding Profits - Self - breeding and self - fattening remained profitable, while purchased piglet fattening was slightly profitable [23]. 3.2.7 Slaughter Weights - The slaughter weight continued to increase this week, but the growth rate slowed down [25]. 3.3 Capacity End 3.3.1 Reproductive Sow Inventory - In January, the national reproductive sow inventory was 40.62 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. In February, the reproductive sow inventory in relevant samples continued to increase [27]. 3.3.2 Sow Culling Situation - The price of culled sows remained stable this week, and the slaughter volume of culled sows increased slightly month - on - month in February [30]. 3.3.3 Sow Production Efficiency and Newborn Healthy Piglet Numbers - In February, the number of newborn healthy piglets was basically stable month - on - month, corresponding to an increase in the number of slaughtered pigs in July and stable numbers in August [32]. 3.3.4 Sow and Piglet Replenishment Enthusiasm - The price of 15 - kg piglets continued to rise this week due to increased enthusiasm among farmers for replenishment as the weather warmed up. The price of 50 - kg binary sows remained stable [34]. 3.4 Slaughter End - The slaughter volume increased month - on - month. In January, the slaughter volume of designated enterprises was 38.16 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4%. Some slaughterhouses carried out segmentation and warehousing operations, which supported pig prices [36]. 3.5 Import End - In February 2025, the pork import volume was about 80,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous month. The current scale of pork imports has a limited impact on domestic pig prices [39].