Core Viewpoint - The 2026 Year of the Horse commemorative coins and banknotes were quickly sold out within a minute of their release, highlighting the intense demand and competition among collectors [1][3][19]. Group 1: Sales and Demand - The reservation for the commemorative coins and banknotes started on January 13, with each person limited to 20 coins and 20 banknotes, and only one reservation per type allowed [1][3]. - Reports indicate that the reservation pages of multiple banks were sold out almost instantly, with some customers experiencing technical issues while trying to place their orders [1][6][9]. - The intense competition for these items led to discussions on social media, with many users expressing frustration over the inability to secure a reservation due to system overloads [6][9][33]. Group 2: Market Trends and Pricing - The secondary market for the commemorative coins and banknotes has seen significant price increases, with coins selling at a premium of several tens of yuan and banknotes even doubling in price [19][21]. - Specific listings on second-hand platforms show that the market price for the 20 yuan banknote has reached 40 yuan, effectively doubling its face value, while certain serial numbers are being offered at much higher prices [21][29]. - Experts suggest that the current price surges are a reflection of short-term speculation and structural scarcity, but caution that long-term appreciation potential may be limited [34]. Group 3: Bank Responses and Future Outlook - Major banks involved in the reservation process, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China, reported no system failures but acknowledged the high traffic leading to congestion [33]. - Banks indicated that there may be opportunities for additional reservations if customers cancel their orders or do not collect their items within the specified timeframe [33]. - Analysts believe that while the current demand is driven by collectors and investors, the long-term value of these commemorative items may stabilize as the initial excitement subsides [34].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for the Year of the Horse commemorative coins and notes has significantly outstripped supply, leading to rapid sellouts online and high premiums on secondary markets, driven by emotional factors rather than fundamental value [1][6][7]. Group 1: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The Year of the Horse commemorative coin has a face value of 10 yuan, with a total issuance of 100 million pieces, while the commemorative note has a face value of 20 yuan, also with an issuance of 100 million pieces [2]. - Online reservations for both the coins and notes were fully booked within minutes, with reports indicating that many users encountered "0" availability when attempting to reserve [3][4]. - The overwhelming demand has led to a situation where individuals are seeking to purchase these items on secondary platforms, often at premiums of several tens of percent above their face value [5]. Group 2: Secondary Market and Pricing - On secondary trading platforms, the prices for the commemorative coins and notes are significantly marked up, with examples showing a 69% premium on a roll of 20 coins, priced at 338 yuan compared to the original 200 yuan [5]. - The phenomenon of high premiums is attributed to a temporary imbalance between supply and demand, fueled by emotional responses rather than intrinsic value [6][7]. Group 3: Expert Analysis - Experts suggest that the current market behavior resembles a short-term liquidity frenzy rather than a genuine value discovery process, warning collectors against misinterpreting these items as stable investments [6][7]. - Historical trends indicate that the prices of commemorative coins and notes typically experience a rapid decline after initial speculative trading, returning to their intrinsic value [7].