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中金:料中资电讯商股价短期受压
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2026-02-04 03:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration of China have raised the value-added tax on telecommunications services starting this year, which may impact the profitability of telecom operators [1] - The report assumes that operators will not pass the tax burden onto customers by 2026, leading to a complete reflection of the reduced after-tax income on profits [1] - Three scenarios have been established by the company, with a neutral scenario leading to revised earnings forecasts for China Mobile and China Telecom, maintaining 2025 estimates but lowering revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 [1] Group 2 - The implied dividend yields for 2026 based on the new earnings forecasts are robust, with China Mobile's A-shares at 5.1% and H-shares at 6.8%, while China Telecom's A-shares are at 4.2% and H-shares at 5.2% [1] - Short-term pressure on the stock prices of Chinese telecom companies is anticipated as the market digests the changes in tax policy and lower profit outlooks [1]