2026年03月03日 版策 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangshenq@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wanqxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务 敢问梦想价值几何? -构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 DCF 模型失效, 未来产业该如何定价? 随着 A 股包容性大幅提升, 传统上处于 Pre-IPO ● 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1）尚未盈利，甚至尚无 收入;2)不确定性高,技术路线远未收敛;3)梦想远大,无限可能。这些特征叠加,导 致传统 DCF 失效。本文通过构建"未来产业定价体系"，试图 ...

A 股 策 略 相关研究 证券分析师 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 牟瑾瑾 A0230524100002 mujj@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 联系人 王雪蓉 A0230523070003 wangxr@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 03 日 敢问梦想价值几何？ ——构建申万宏源策略"未来产业定价体系" 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 策 略 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ DCF 模型失效，未来产业该如何定价？随着 A 股包容性大幅提升，传统上处于 Pre-IPO 阶段的早期科技企业，如今大量登陆二级市场。这些公司普遍：1） ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial valuation modeling has become an essential hard skill in various fields such as investment decision-making, mergers and acquisitions, fund management, and risk control. However, only a small portion of individuals can proficiently apply these skills. To address this gap, a course titled "Financial Valuation Modeling from Beginner to Proficient" has been introduced to help individuals understand and master valuation modeling methods from scratch [1]. Course Overview - The course is designed to provide a comprehensive understanding of financial valuation modeling, covering both relative and absolute valuation methods, including practical case studies and Excel modeling techniques [11][20]. - The course duration is 7 hours and 22 minutes, and it is offered at a promotional price of 149.5 yuan with additional discounts available [10][24]. Course Content Breakdown 1. Relative Valuation Method - Introduction to Excel shortcuts commonly used in valuation modeling - Detailed explanation of the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio and its application in relative valuation - Introduction to other relative valuation methods such as Price-to-Book (PB) ratio [11]. 2. DCF Absolute Valuation Method - Explanation of the time value of money and the significance of discounting - Key valuation terms such as enterprise value and equity value - Overview of free cash flow and weighted average cost of capital (WACC) [11]. 3. DCF Case Studies - Simplified DCF valuation model using Kweichow Moutai as an example - Steps for cash flow discounting and stock price prediction - Complete valuation modeling framework including financial statement forecasting [11]. 4. Valuation Modeling Techniques - Scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis using Excel functions - Techniques for handling depreciation in Excel [12][13]. 5. Instructor Credentials - The course is taught by a well-qualified instructor with a master's degree from the University of Pennsylvania and extensive experience in financial analysis and risk management [15][17]. 6. Practical Applications - The course includes real-world examples and case studies from well-known companies to illustrate valuation modeling concepts [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current bullish sentiment in China's A-share market, particularly in the technology growth sector, and suggests that 2025 may present significant investment opportunities as the market continues to evolve [2]. Investment Philosophy - The investment philosophy is tailored for two types of investors: "Buddhist" investors who accept short-term volatility for long-term compounding, and "robotic" investors who strictly adhere to trading plans without emotional interference [7]. - The guiding principle is to use trends as anchors and discipline as boundaries to achieve optimal risk-reward dynamics [7]. Timing and Risk Management - Timing is viewed not as predicting the future but as aligning with trends; confirmation of trends through technical signals is emphasized for entry points [9]. - The investment framework includes four modules: trend selection, right-side entry, dynamic risk control, and capital management [10]. Stock Selection Logic - The investment strategy does not set fixed holding periods but is driven by signals; strict stop-loss measures are in place if expectations are not met [11]. - The approach is primarily bottom-up, focusing on individual stock trends while also considering top-down factors to enhance selection [12][13].