深圳商报·读创客户端记者 詹钰叶 平安基金基金经理莫艽 如何在板块轮动的喧嚣市场中寻找机会？投资者又要如何守住本质与初心？平安基金新生代基金经理莫 艽在接受专访时，分享了他如何穿透市场"噪音"，坚守核心投资框架的思考。 公开资料显示，莫艽是清华大学机械工程本硕出身，拥有7年证券从业经验、近2年投资管理经验。这位 新生代基金经理的代表作是平安安享灵活配置混合基金：银河证券数据显示，该基金2024年的回报为 21.18%，业绩排名前5%（18/425），同期沪深300的涨幅为14.5%、偏股混合基金指数涨幅为3.5%；在 2025年价值风格产品逆风期里，该基金仍保持了24.57%的正收益。回撤方面，平安安享灵活配置混合 2024年、2025年最大回撤分别为15.8%、12.8%。 以DCF为"道"，深度研究等四大方法为"器"，更多采用终局思维 "于我个人而言，人生的第一阶段目标，是在未来十年，能够取得年化复合15%的收益率（非承诺业 绩），成为市场上第一梯队的基金经理。"莫艽解释称，将15%作为目标，是因为长期来看，全市场能 做到十年年化15%以上的基金经理凤毛麟角。 他认为科技革命触手可及，人工智能AI、自动驾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the investment philosophy of Mo Qiao, a fund manager at Ping An Fund, who emphasizes deep research and dynamic positioning over macro predictions and market trends [1][2]. Investment Philosophy - Mo Qiao's core investment philosophy revolves around the dynamic matching of value and price, rejecting the traditional view of never selling good companies [2][3]. - He integrates the Kelly formula into his investment practice, adjusting positions based on the proximity of stock prices to their value ranges [2][3]. - The focus is on long-term value space rather than short-term growth rates, with a preference for assessing companies based on their dividend yield for safety margins [2][3]. Investment Framework - Mo Qiao's investment framework is summarized as "Dao and Qi Distinction," where "Dao" refers to the DCF principle and "Qi" encompasses four differentiated strategies [3][6]. - The strategies include extreme depth of research to determine value ranges, dynamic position adjustments following the Kelly formula, focusing on price-value comparisons rather than low PE/PB, and investing in quality companies [3][6]. Research Methodology - The depth of research involves creating extensive notes for each holding, covering business models and industry dynamics, which enhances stock-picking capabilities and decision-making [7][10]. - The approach emphasizes understanding the underlying logic of industries and companies, allowing for targeted research and investment decisions [10]. Market Approach - Mo Qiao avoids pure thematic investments and market timing, focusing instead on individual stock selection based on current value assessments [3][4]. - The strategy includes dynamic position adjustments based on market conditions, with a focus on absolute returns and controlling drawdowns [5][6]. Industry Focus - The investment strategy prioritizes low-cycle industries, as they often present better pricing opportunities during downturns [10][11]. - Mo Qiao's approach includes analyzing industries through global benchmarks and focusing on companies with strong governance and growth potential [9][10]. Response to Market Trends - In the context of popular sectors like AI and robotics, Mo Qiao remains cautious, emphasizing the importance of intrinsic value over speculative price movements [11][12]. - The strategy involves reducing positions in overvalued stocks driven by market hype while increasing stakes in undervalued quality companies [11][12].

证券研究报告|专题报告 金融工程 2026年2月24日 基于胜率与盈亏比的行业博弈策略 —— 概率驱动的行业轮动决策框架 证券分析师： 李杨 执业证书编号： S0210524100005 熊晓湛 执业证书编号： S0210524100006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 ➢ 概率思维 —将行业指数作为可重复博弈对象 我们将行业指数视为可重复参与的博弈对象，而非一次性的行情判断，以胜率 × 盈亏结构刻画行业在长期维度上的博弈价值。 在筛选阶段引入综合盈亏指标，对行业在不同市场环境中的成功概率与回报结构进行系统评估，优选具备正期望、能够穿越周期 的成功行业。 ➢ 逆周期筛选—选取历史上有成功经验的行业 在行业筛选过程中，不是仅依赖当期强弱做单期判断，而是对弱势行业引入历史排名记忆机制（参考其最近一次进入强势阶段时 的综合表现），并与当前强势行业统一比较。 该机制有助于在轮动与风格切换期间保留具备反转潜力的行业。 ➢ 应用凯利公式—进一步优化权重分配方案 Kelly 权重解决的是"在同一批入选行业中，资金该如何分配"。 在不改变行业筛选结果的前提下，基于各行业的胜率与盈亏结构进行差异化 ...

春节过完了，红包收好了，该想想马年投资怎么布局了。节后流动性回暖、风险偏好提升，成长或仍是主线。今天，这只"不一样"的成长宽基——富国核 心动力（A类026710/C类026711）重磅首发。 富国核心动力拟由爱调研、会选股的"景气捕手"吴栋栋执掌。他不仅拥有"产业+金融"复合背景，更凭借一套"自上而下抓景气、自下而上挖个股"的方 法。据了解，富国核心动力这只基金不押注单一赛道，而关注AI、机器人、商业航天这些"鱼多的地方"，争取提前下网，力求在变化的市场中持续捕捉超 额收益。 选择在这个时点推出富国核心动力，背后正是对市场节奏与产业周期的双重考量。这并非一只主题狭窄的行业基金，而是一只定位清晰的成长风格宽基 ——股票仓位60%-95%，横跨A股与港股，拟由基金经理吴栋栋管理。 在产业升级与科技创新的浪潮中，寻找并投资那些能驱动增长的"核心动力源"。对于希望布局多元成长、又不愿被单一赛道束缚的投资者而言，这样的产 品设计，或许正契合了"一年之计在于春"的布局思路。 二、吴栋栋：从机械工程师到"景气捕手"的进化之路 一只基金能否行稳致远，基金经理是灵魂。执掌这只新品的吴栋栋，拥有一个不太典型的履历：他并非金融科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 22nd Fund Industry Golden Bull Award results highlight the shift towards high-quality development in the public fund industry, emphasizing long-term performance and investor satisfaction as key themes [1]. Group 1: Fund Manager Insights - Dai Jun, the fund manager at Dacheng Fund, has been recognized for his long-term performance, managing the Dacheng Optimal Mixed Fund, which won the "Five-Year Open Mixed Continuous Excellence Golden Bull Fund" award [2]. - Dai Jun emphasizes a balanced investment approach, advocating for a flexible strategy that adapts to market changes while focusing on deep research to enhance stock selection profitability [2][3]. - His investment philosophy is rooted in the principle of avoiding extremes, combining value and growth styles to achieve resilience in various market conditions [4]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Dai Jun's investment journey began with challenges, including a significant drawdown exceeding 40% shortly after he started managing funds, which led him to prioritize positive returns [3]. - He has developed a five-tier pricing mechanism for stock valuation, which includes asset pricing, earnings pricing, growth pricing, trend pricing, and bubble pricing, allowing for informed investment decisions [5][6]. - The focus on maintaining a high probability of profitability has resulted in a historical success rate of over 50% for the stocks he has traded [5]. Group 3: Portfolio Management - Dai Jun's portfolio management strategy involves a balanced approach across asset classes, industries, and styles, avoiding single-sided bets and maintaining a diversified portfolio [8][9]. - He primarily invests in consumer, pharmaceutical, and manufacturing sectors, which he believes can consistently create value [9]. - The "358" holding strategy is employed to manage risk and ensure a balance between safety and profitability, allowing for adjustments based on market conditions [10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Dai Jun anticipates that the period from 2025 to 2035 will be crucial for industrial upgrades, emphasizing the need for fund managers to enhance their capabilities to navigate complex market environments [11]. - His long-term investment philosophy focuses on maintaining a respectful attitude towards the market, aiming for sustainable returns rather than short-term gains [11].

Core Insights - The article contrasts two different mindsets: work mindset and investment mindset, highlighting their fundamental methodological conflicts [1][3][11] Group 1: Differences in Task Environments - Daily work environments are characterized by repeatability, controllability, and local impact, allowing for clear feedback and iterative improvement [3][6] - Investment environments, in contrast, are marked by unpredictability, non-repeatability, and non-controllability, leading to challenges in establishing effective strategies [4][8] Group 2: Feedback Quality - In work settings, feedback is quick and clear, enabling employees to refine their methods effectively [6][7] - Investment feedback is often delayed and noisy, making it difficult to distinguish between luck and skill, which can mislead investors into believing in the effectiveness of their strategies [6][7][11] Group 3: Non-linearity and Tail Risks - Work progress is typically linear, while investment returns can be highly non-linear and subject to tail risks, where rare events can lead to significant losses [8][10] - The occurrence of black swan events can drastically impact investment outcomes, emphasizing the need for awareness of such risks [10][11] Group 4: Success Paths - Successful work strategies involve rapid testing and iteration based on immediate feedback, while investment strategies can be dangerous if they rely on past successes without proper validation [12][13] - Investors should avoid blindly increasing exposure after a single success, as this can lead to significant losses due to unverified strategies [14][15] Group 5: Recommendations for Investors - Investors should distinguish between luck and skill, focusing on building a long-term investment system with positive expected value [17] - Emphasizing process over results, investors should review their strategies critically, especially when profitable outcomes arise from errors [17] - Acknowledging the potential for being wrong is crucial, as it encourages a more cautious and reflective approach to investment decisions [17][18]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment to mitigate risks and avoid significant losses, aligning with Warren Buffett's principle of not losing money [3][10]. Importance of Diversification - Overconfidence is a critical human flaw that can lead to poor investment decisions, as demonstrated by a behavioral finance experiment showing that confidence levels often exceed actual judgment accuracy [4][5]. - The "overconfidence curve" illustrates that as confidence increases, the actual ability to make correct judgments does not improve proportionately, leading to potential overexposure in investments [5]. Misuse of Kelly Criterion - The Kelly Criterion, while a popular method for determining optimal bet sizes, can lead to overestimating success probabilities, especially when applied without known parameters [6]. - Edward Thorp warns that exceeding the recommended bet size can exponentially increase the risk of bankruptcy, highlighting the need for caution in applying theoretical models to real-world scenarios [6]. Uncertainty in Investments - The concept of "unknowns" in investments is crucial, as real-world conditions rarely provide clear probabilities, making it essential to avoid heavy concentration in any single investment [7][9]. - The article discusses the "black swan" events that can disrupt even statistically sound investment strategies, reinforcing the need for a diversified approach to withstand unexpected market movements [8][9]. Conclusion on Diversification - The essence of diversification is to allow time for probabilities to work in favor of the investor, ensuring survival through uncertain times rather than chasing marginal gains in seemingly certain opportunities [10]. - The article concludes that respecting probabilities through adequate diversification is fundamental to successful investing, emphasizing the importance of survival over short-term gains [10].

Core Insights - The article discusses various money management techniques that traders can use to determine position sizes for their trades, emphasizing the importance of consistency in position management to avoid significant account volatility. Group 1: Fixed Percentage Method - The fixed percentage method involves setting a risk percentage of the total account balance for each trade, typically between 1% and 3%. For example, with a $10,000 account and a 1% risk level, the risk per trade would be $100 [2]. - This method provides equal weight to each trade, resulting in a smoother account curve and reduced volatility [2]. Group 2: Averaging Up Method - The averaging up method allows traders to add to their positions as the trade moves into profit, thereby increasing the number of contracts held [3]. - Advantages include smaller potential losses on initial trades and the ability to capitalize on strengthening trends [5]. - Challenges include finding optimal entry points for adding to positions and the risk of quickly offsetting profits if prices reverse [6]. Group 3: Averaging Down Method - The averaging down method involves increasing position size when trades are losing, with the aim of reducing potential losses if the trade reverses [7]. - The strategy can reduce potential losses and help return to breakeven faster [9]. - However, it is often misused by inexperienced traders, leading to significant losses due to emotional decision-making [10]. Group 4: Martingale Method - The Martingale method involves doubling the position size after a losing trade, hoping to recover all previous losses with a single win [11]. - The main advantage is the potential to recover all losses with one profitable trade [12]. - The significant risk is that a series of losses can deplete the entire trading account, as demonstrated by a statistical example showing rapid account depletion after consecutive losses [13][14]. Group 5: Anti-Martingale Method - The anti-Martingale method aims to eliminate the risks associated with the pure Martingale approach by increasing position size after winning trades [16]. - This method allows traders to use profits to take on additional risk, potentially leading to greater gains [18]. - However, a single loss can wipe out previous profits, necessitating careful management of position sizes [20]. Group 6: Fixed Ratio Method - The fixed ratio method is based on a trader's profit factor, allowing for position size increases only after reaching a predetermined profit threshold [21]. - This method ensures that position sizes only grow when actual profits are realized, providing a controlled approach to scaling [22]. - The subjective nature of setting the profit threshold (Delta) can lead to significant differences in account growth rates [23]. Group 7: Kelly Criterion - The Kelly Criterion aims to maximize compound growth by calculating the optimal position size based on win rate and payout ratio [24]. - While it provides a structured approach to position sizing, it often underestimates the impact of losses and drawdowns [25]. - A common practice is to use a fraction of the Kelly Criterion to mitigate risk, as full application can lead to substantial drawdowns [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The most important aspect of a bull market is position management, where a correct directional position can lead to profits in a generally rising market. The ideal strategy is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, reducing holdings as prices rise to avoid losses during corrections [1][2]. Position Management - The current market is viewed as being halfway through the bull cycle, with valuations at historical average levels. The market has recently experienced fluctuations around the 4000-point mark, with support at the 3900-point level, indicating a return to a normal trend after filling gaps [1][2]. - The current position is seen as the last opportunity for light accumulation, while excessive accumulation is considered aggressive. It is advised not to increase positions further as the market progresses [2][6]. Risks of Inverted Pyramid Positioning - Inverted pyramid positioning, where investors increase their holdings disproportionately as prices rise, is deemed dangerous. This can lead to significant losses if the market corrects, as the average cost of holdings increases, making it easier to incur losses even when the stock price remains above initial purchase levels [3][4][5]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The market sentiment is currently rational, with no extreme bullishness observed. This indicates that there is still room for growth before reaching a euphoric state. The ideal buying opportunities often arise when market sentiment is low, while selling opportunities appear when sentiment is overly optimistic [17][19]. - The transition from a bull to a bear market is anticipated to be challenging for those who do not manage their positions effectively, especially if they increase their holdings during the latter stages of a bull market [6][12]. Future Positioning Strategy - The recommended strategy moving forward is to maintain a decreasing pyramid-shaped position, gradually realizing profits while protecting gains through options strategies. This approach aims to mitigate potential losses during market transitions [9][12][21]. - Investors are cautioned against floating accumulation after the main upward trend has concluded, as this could lead to significant losses during market corrections [8][20].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of diversification in investment to mitigate risks associated with overconfidence and uncertainty in predicting outcomes [2][9]. Group 1: Importance of Diversification - Diversification is crucial because human nature often leads to overconfidence, which can result in significant financial losses when investors misjudge their ability to predict outcomes [3][4]. - A behavioral finance experiment demonstrated that as confidence increases, the actual success rate does not correspondingly rise, highlighting the dangers of overconfidence in investment decisions [3][4]. - The "overconfidence curve" illustrates that higher confidence does not equate to better judgment, with individuals often overestimating their accuracy by 20%-30% [4]. Group 2: Risks of Using Kelly Criterion - The Kelly Criterion, while a popular method for determining optimal bet sizes, can lead to overestimation of success probabilities, increasing the risk of bankruptcy when positions exceed recommended levels [5]. - Edward Thorp's research indicates that using more than double the Kelly suggested position significantly raises the probability of losing all capital [5]. - The assumption that success probabilities and odds are known is often flawed in real-world investments, making the Kelly Criterion a less reliable tool [5][6]. Group 3: Black Swan Events and Investment Strategy - The concept of "black swan" events illustrates that even statistically favorable investments can lead to catastrophic losses if not managed properly [6][7]. - Concentrated bets can result in significant losses from unexpected events, reinforcing the need for diversification to withstand such shocks [8]. - Diversification allows investors to endure adverse events without being forced out of the market, thereby respecting the inherent uncertainties in investment [9]. Group 4: Snowball Investment Philosophy - The Snowball investment philosophy advocates for a three-pronged approach to diversification: asset diversification, market diversification, and timing diversification, aimed at achieving long-term investment success [10].