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美股逼近新高之际技术分析师警告:市场广度尚未改善 未来几个月或出现回调
智通财经网· 2025-06-26 10:43
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market, driven by technology stocks, is nearing historical highs, but analysts warn of potential pullbacks unless broader market participation increases [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has rebounded strongly since April, now less than 1% from its all-time high [1] - A key market breadth indicator shows little change since May, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 index still over 4% below its historical peak from last November [1] - Only three sectors—Information Technology, Industrials, and Communication Services—have reached new highs among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [2] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Dan Wantrobski from Janney Montgomery Scott indicates that without stronger support from financial, transportation, and small-cap stocks, the market's momentum may wane in the coming months [1] - Fundstrat's Mark Newton sees positive signals from the recent strong performance of industrial, transportation, consumer discretionary, and financial sectors, even if they haven't reached new highs [2] - LPL's Adam Turnquist cites historical data suggesting that if the S&P 500 reaches a new high at least 60 trading days after the last peak, the average return over the next 12 months is 9.7% [3] Group 3: Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 is currently in a severely overbought state, with a potential for a market pullback if breadth does not follow the index's rise [1][3] - Relative Strength Index (RSI) is expected to enter a "bearish" zone later this summer, indicating a possible market reversal [3] - Macro Risk Advisors' John Kolovos identifies the first technical support level for the S&P 500 at approximately 5,930 points, suggesting a potential decline of about 2.7% from recent closing prices [6]