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诺亚ARK最新CIO报告:当科技型通缩成为红利,认知才是关键变量
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-28 04:26
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a cognitive recalibration among wealth managers, highlighting that true wealth lies in the direction of allocation rather than the speed of returns [1] Group 1: Understanding Inflation and Deflation - Historically, wealth management focused on outperforming inflation, viewing hard assets like real estate and commodities as hedges against currency devaluation [3][4] - Currently, inflation persists due to geopolitical conflicts and fiscal expansion, while a technological revolution led by AI is creating a "deflationary" environment characterized by increased efficiency [4][5] - The coexistence of inflation and deflation represents a paradigm shift, necessitating a new investment approach that acknowledges both forces [4][6] Group 2: Investment Strategy Evolution - Traditional linear investment logic is becoming obsolete in a world where inflation and deflation coexist, leading to a need for a more resilient investment structure [6][7] - The "Three Pillar Asset Allocation Model" proposed by Noah emphasizes a combination of real-world anchoring, future efficiency bets, and flexibility to adapt to uncertainties [7][8] - This model encourages investors to move from single-product bets to constructing a robust portfolio that can withstand market volatility [8] Group 3: Shift from Scarcity to Efficiency - The old paradigm of valuing assets based on scarcity is being challenged by the rise of AI, which democratizes access to knowledge and reduces the cost of high-skill services [10][11] - The new value paradigm favors "connectors," "iterators," and "compounders" over mere "owners," indicating a shift towards efficiency as the primary driver of value [10][11] - Investment is redefined as a vote for efficient systems rather than a purchase of scarcity, necessitating a fundamental cognitive revolution among investors [11][12] Group 4: Conclusion and Future Outlook - The transition from resource-driven logic to efficiency-driven logic represents a systemic reshaping of wealth management perspectives [12] - Noah aims to provide a deeper, structured thinking framework through its CIO reports, focusing on how to build certainty amidst uncertainty [12] - The article concludes that those who undergo a cognitive leap will be better positioned to recognize future opportunities [12]