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不死的程序员
AI科技大本营· 2025-07-04 09:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recurring narrative of "programmers being replaced by machines" throughout the history of computing, emphasizing that each technological advancement has led to the evolution rather than the extinction of the programming profession [2][50]. Group 1: Historical Waves of Programmer Replacement - The first wave of replacement occurred in the 1950s with the advent of compilers, which allowed for higher-level programming languages, leading to the emergence of a new profession: software programmers [8][10]. - The 1960s saw the introduction of COBOL, aimed at making programming accessible to business managers, which instead resulted in a new class of specialized COBOL programmers [12][13]. - The 1970s introduced fourth-generation programming languages (4GL), which promised to simplify programming by allowing users to declare what they wanted rather than how to achieve it, but ultimately led to the rise of hybrid roles rather than the elimination of programmers [22][23]. - The 1980s brought about Computer-Aided Software Engineering (CASE) tools, which aimed for full automation of coding but revealed that the core challenges of software development lay in defining requirements rather than coding itself [26][28]. - The 1990s saw the rise of Rapid Application Development (RAD) tools like Visual Basic, which democratized programming but also created a clear division between application developers and system developers [38][39]. - The 2000s introduced outsourcing as a cost-saving measure, leading to a new division of labor in the IT industry, but also highlighted the importance of communication and collaboration skills in software development [43][45]. - The 2010s witnessed the emergence of Low-Code/No-Code platforms, empowering business users to create applications, yet reinforcing the role of professional developers in governance and control [48][49]. Group 2: The Impact of AI on Programming - The current wave driven by AI and large language models (LLMs) raises concerns about the end of coding as a profession, but practical experience shows that AI-generated code often lacks context and requires human oversight [50][54]. - The historical pattern indicates that each technological advancement has led to a redefinition of the programmer's role, with increasing complexity and demand for higher-level skills rather than outright replacement [57][58]. - The enduring value of software engineers lies in their deep business understanding, rigorous system design, and critical thinking, which remain essential despite the rise of AI tools [59].