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CHINA OILFIELD SERVICES(601808):DECENT QOQ GROWTH IN 3Q25
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-01 11:55
Core Viewpoint - COSL's earnings increased by 16% QoQ to RMB1.25 billion in 3Q25, driven by margin improvement and a lower effective tax rate [1]. Financial Performance - COSL's turnover decreased by 8% QoQ in 3Q25, but gross profit rose by 3% QoQ, with gross margin improving from 17.3% in 2Q25 to 19.4% in 3Q25 due to a change in revenue mix [1]. - The effective tax rate fell from 21.0% in 2Q25 to 17.7% in 3Q25, and there was no asset impairment in 3Q25 compared to RMB86 million in 2Q25 [1]. - The company's net profit grew 16% QoQ to RMB1.25 billion [1]. Operational Insights - The operating days of COSL's rigs decreased by 3% QoQ in 3Q25 due to scheduled maintenance, but increased by 16% YoY, as operations in offshore China were significantly impacted by typhoons in 3Q24 [2]. - Revenue from the well services segment declined slightly in 9M25 due to weak industry demand [2]. Future Outlook - Expectations for 4Q25 indicate a potential 17% QoQ drop in earnings, attributed to higher expenses anticipated from project completions [3]. - The decline in effective tax rate is a significant factor in the increased earnings forecasts for 2025-27, with the effective tax rate at 18.7% in 9M25 compared to 27.7% in 9M24 [4]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price for COSL's H shares has been raised from HK$9.05 to HK$9.70, reflecting an increase in target valuation from 0.85x to 0.9x 2025E P/B due to improved ROE [5]. - The target price for A shares has also been increased from RMB18.61 to RMB19.21, based on the narrowing A-H premium from 124% to 117% since late August [5].