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红枣专题:如何从产业链角度理解收购季的博弈?
对冲研投· 2025-10-22 09:30
Core Viewpoint - The red date industry is characterized by a "merchant" model, focusing on procurement, processing, and sales, where controlling acquisition costs and increasing sales revenue are crucial for profit enhancement [5][10]. Cost Control - The red date procurement season is concentrated, and due to agricultural and industrial policy attributes, the feedback from sales results after the transfer of goods is relatively limited. The aggressive procurement strategy for aged dates in the 23/24 season may not effectively control acquisition costs [5][10]. - The high acquisition costs during production reduction years (21/22, 23/24) have a significant impact on profits, indicating that the industry struggles to pass on high costs to downstream consumers [10][13]. Sales Revenue - Approximately 50% of red date consumption occurs during the winter-spring peak season (December to March), with the remaining 50% spread over the following 6-7 months. The sales performance during the peak season is critical for setting annual expectations [5][10]. - If prices drop quickly during the winter-spring peak season, it is unlikely that the off-peak season will perform well, leading to a tendency for the industry to maintain a holding price and reluctance to sell during this period [10][13]. Industry Structure - The red date industry chain is relatively simple, with upstream producers primarily consisting of various farmers in the main production area of Xinjiang, and downstream consumers being end-users who directly consume red dates [7][8]. - The middle-tier "merchant-type" enterprises are responsible for procurement, processing, and sales, facing challenges in managing acquisition costs and ensuring profitability [8][9]. Strategic Focus - The industry must focus on "opening up sources and saving costs" to achieve better profits, which involves expanding sales channels and controlling acquisition costs through various methods [10][13]. - The unique consumption characteristics of red dates necessitate a strategic approach to maximize the product of price and sales volume after procurement [13][15].