研究员: 王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021556 | | | 红枣产业日报 2025-11-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) 230 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 9225 | 121643 | -13118 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) 7928 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | -3722 | 0 | 0 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) 0 | 428 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 6.8 | 4.35 | -0.05 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 5.65 | 4.45 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 5.5 | 9.8 | 0 | | | 河北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main futures contract for red dates experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 9190.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.65% as of the report's publication [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The red date futures market is showing weak performance, with the main contract declining over 2% [2] - The lowest price recorded for the red date futures was 9190.00 yuan, indicating a significant downward trend [1] Group 2: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - In the Aksu region, the mainstream transaction price ranges from 5.80 to 6.60 yuan per kilogram, with an average transaction price of 6.2 yuan per kilogram [2] - In the Aral region, the reference mainstream purchase price is between 5.80 and 7.00 yuan per kilogram, with an average of 6.4 yuan per kilogram [2] - The Kashgar region shows prices for certain designated gardens ranging from 6.80 to 7.80 yuan per kilogram, with an average of 7.35 yuan per kilogram [2] - The market in Hebei saw a price adjustment on November 12, with premium red dates priced at 9.96 yuan per kilogram, first-grade at 9.00 yuan, second-grade at 7.9 yuan, and third-grade at 6.5 yuan [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode due to weak feedback from the sales area affecting new date purchase prices [2] - The decline in prices may slow down as red date prices are at historically low levels, with expectations for a potential stabilization in the near term [3] - The increase in supply from the new season and high inventory levels are putting pressure on demand, but there is hope that upcoming peak season consumption may provide a boost [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the Xinjiang main - producing area has weakened. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week increased by 193 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. Merchants are more active in purchasing old goods with high cost - performance, and less enthusiastic about purchasing new - season raw materials in the producing area. The price in the sales area has been slightly reduced, and downstream customers mostly wait and purchase as needed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for red dates was 9365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan; the main contract position was 151,592 lots, an increase of 2,176 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 11,102 lots, a decrease of 3,392 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 0, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 0 [2] Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar red dates was 7.35 yuan/kg, unchanged; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 4.5 yuan/jin, unchanged; the unified price of Alar red dates was 6.4 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan was 4.6 yuan/jin, unchanged; the unified price of Aksu red dates was 6.2 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan; the special - grade price of red dates in Henan was 10.3 yuan/kg, unchanged; the special - grade price of red dates in Hebei was 9.98 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the special - grade price of red dates in Guangdong was 11.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the first - grade price of red dates in Guangdong was 10.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 9,541 tons, an increase of 193 tons; the monthly export volume was 2,283,671 kg, a decrease of 81,222 kg; the cumulative monthly export volume was 23,548,402 kg, an increase of 2,283,671 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was - 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative quarterly year - on - year production increase was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 4 trucks of red dates arrived. The reference price for special - grade was 10.00 - 10.70 yuan/kg, and for first - grade was 9.00 - 9.70 yuan/kg. New - season finished products were on the market, with a slight price adjustment. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 5 trucks of red dates arrived, the price was stable, more new goods were on the market, the reference price for special - grade was 11.50 yuan/kg, and for first - grade was 10.50 yuan/kg. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream merchants was average [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the Xinjiang main - producing area, the procurement in areas such as Hotan has ended. The picking progress in areas such as Alar and Aksu is 30% - 40%. The procurement enthusiasm of merchants has weakened. The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week increased by 193 tons compared with last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.06% and a year - on - year increase of 131.35%. Merchants are more active in purchasing old goods with high cost - performance, and less enthusiastic about purchasing new - season raw materials in the producing area. The price in the sales area has been slightly reduced, and downstream customers mostly wait and purchase as needed [2] Prompt Attention - There is no news today. The producing area has entered the concentrated picking stage. Attention should be paid to the changes in the purchasing enthusiasm and purchasing structure of buyers [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The current jujube market is at a critical period of transition between the old and new seasons, with prices in the sales areas showing small fluctuations. The jujube in the main production areas has not been harvested on a large scale yet and is expected to start after the frost. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes. The inventory in the sample points continues to decline. As the new season approaches, some merchants are actively selling their inventory to raise funds for the new - season acquisition. With the cooling weather, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. It is expected that the jujube market will fluctuate within a range in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main jujube futures contract is 11,385 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 180,042 lots, up 7,595 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,723 lots, down 2,282 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 0, and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2] Spot Market - The prices of jujube in various regions are mostly stable. For example, the price of general - grade jujube in Kashgar is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujube in Hebei is 4.75 yuan/jin, and the price of special - grade jujube in Hebei has increased by 0.11 yuan/kg to 10.69 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons; the planting area is 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,009 tons, down 158 tons; the monthly jujube export volume is 2,364,893 kg, an increase of 580,729 kg; the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 21,264,731 kg, an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujube of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons; the cumulative year - on - year jujube production growth rate is 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market, 8 trucks of jujubes arrived, with reference prices for special - grade jujubes at 10.50 - 11.70 yuan/kg and small first - grade jujubes at 8.40 - 8.90 yuan/kg. The downstream purchased as needed, and the transactions were okay. In Guangdong's Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of jujubes arrived, with the supply continuing. The prices varied according to the quality, and the mainstream prices were temporarily stable [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Group 2: Core View of the Report - The red date market is at a critical period of transition between old and new seasons, with the main - producing areas' grey dates entering the sugar - increasing stage. The physical inventory of 36 sample points in the red date market this week is 9,247 tons, a decrease of 74 tons from last week, a 0.79% week - on - week decrease and an 80.64% year - on - year increase. The arrival volume in the sales area market is small, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is weak. There is a technical correction in red date prices on the market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to holiday stocking [2] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 10,970 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 185 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract is 158,928 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 2,813 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 8,985 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,617 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 7,063 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 341 lots. The total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 58 lots, with no week - on - week change [2] Spot Market - The prices of red date bulk goods in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu are 6 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 4.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no week - on - week change. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Hebei and Henan are 4.75 yuan/jin, with no week - on - week change. The prices of special - grade red dates in Hebei, Henan, and Guangdong are 10.48 yuan/kg, 10.5 yuan/kg, and 11.7 yuan/kg respectively, with only the Hebei price having a week - on - week increase of 0.02 yuan/kg. The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 318.7 tons. The planting area is 199.3 hectares, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.1 hectares [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 9,247 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 74 tons. The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,364,893 kg, with a month - on - month increase of 580,729 kg. The cumulative monthly export volume is 21,264,731 kg, with an increase of 2,364,893 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni is - 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative quarterly year - on - year production growth rate is 1.47%, with a decrease of 34.59 percentage points [2] Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, 3 trucks of red dates arrived, and the prices remained stable. The reference arrival price for special - grade red dates is 10.60 yuan/kg, and for first - grade red dates is 9.60 yuan/kg, with downstream purchasing according to demand. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 2 trucks of red dates arrived, and the spot prices remained stable. Due to the typhoon alert in Guangdong, the number of purchasing customers is small, and the trading volume is average [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [2] 2. Core View - The current jujube market is at a critical period of transition between old and new seasons. The main - producing areas' grey jujubes are in the sugar - increasing period. The physical inventory of 36 sample points in the distribution market decreased by 74 tons week - on - week, a 0.79% decline, and increased by 80.64% year - on - year. The arrival volume in the distribution market is small, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and the double - festival stocking intensity is average with a weak overall trading atmosphere. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish view [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for jujube is 10,735 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 149,819 lots (a week - on - week increase of 2,097 lots), the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 5,655 lots (a week - on - week decrease of 2,038 lots), the number of warehouse receipts is 8,323 (a week - on - week decrease of 107), and the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 58 (unchanged) [2] Spot Market - The unified price of Kashgar jujubes is 6 yuan/kg, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei and Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin, the unified price of Alar jujubes is 5.2 yuan/kg, the unified price of Aksu jujubes is 4.8 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg, the price of special - grade jujubes in Hebei is 10.3 yuan/kg (a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg), the price of special - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 11.7 yuan/kg, and the price of first - grade jujubes in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg, all unchanged except as noted [2] Upstream Market - The annual jujube output is 606.9 million tons (an increase of 318.7 million tons), and the planting area is 1.993 million hectares (a decrease of 41,000 hectares) [2] Industry Situation - The national jujube inventory is 9,247 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 74 tons), the monthly jujube export volume is 1,784,164 kg (an increase of 19,057 kg), and the cumulative monthly jujube export volume is 18,899,838 kg [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative sales volume of jujubes of Hao Xiang Ni is 36,480.43 tons (a decrease of 2,981.06 tons), and the cumulative year - on - year jujube production is 1.47% (a decrease of 34.59 percentage points) [2] Industry News - The Hebei Cuierzhuang market received 6 trucks of jujubes, with reference prices of 10.50 yuan/kg for special - grade and 8.50 yuan/kg for second - grade, and there was little market trading. The Guangdong Ruyifang market received 5 trucks of jujubes, with spot prices fluctuating slightly, and customers purchased according to demand with an average daily trading volume of about 1 truck in the morning market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.34%. As the weather gets hotter, seasonal fresh fruits are on the market, which substitutes for nourishing products like jujubes. It's the seasonal off - peak season for jujube demand, and inventory digestion is slow. Although the number of inquiring customers has increased and the inventory has decreased slightly, the high inventory of old fruits restricts the upward space of the futures price. The jujube trees in the producing areas are in the fruit - setting period, and the current growth is relatively good, but the yield is uncertain. Next week, there will be high - temperature weather in some parts of southern Xinjiang, which may still affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou jujube 2509 contract [10][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Highlights - Future trading reminders include weather impact and the consumer side [9]. - This week, the price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated, with a weekly decline of about 2.34%. The jujube market is in the off - peak season, and the inventory is slowly digested. The 36 sample physical inventories in the 27th week were 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.08%. The jujube trees in the producing areas are in the fruit - setting period, and the growth is relatively good, but the yield is uncertain. Next week, there will be high - temperature weather in some parts of southern Xinjiang, which may affect the futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou jujube 2509 contract [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures price: The price of Zhengzhou jujube's main contract fluctuated this week, with a weekly decline of about 2.34% [13]. - Futures positions: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 15,805 lots [18]. - Futures warehouse receipts: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 8,699 [19]. - Futures spreads: As of this week, the spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's jujube futures 2509 contract and the 2601 contract was - 990 yuan/ton [23]. - Basis: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei gray jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was - 565 yuan/ton [24]. - Spot prices: As of July 4, 2025, the unified purchase price of Aksu jujubes was 4.8 yuan/kg, that of Alar jujubes was 5.2 yuan/kg, and that of Kashgar jujubes was 6 yuan/kg. The wholesale price of first - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan was 4.35 yuan/jin. The wholesale price of special - grade gray jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.85 yuan/kg, and that in Henan was 9.8 yuan/kg [27][31][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain - Supply side: In the 27th week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 10,520 tons, a decrease of 168 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57%, and a year - on - year increase of 71.08%. The crop growth is good, and the jujube yield in the 2024/25 production season is expected to recover [38][42]. - Demand side: In May 2025, China's jujube export volume was 2,229,227 kg, a year - on - year decrease of 5.61%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 15,350,567 kg, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand was inactive this week, and the order volume was not transacted [46][50]. 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Options market: The implied volatility of at - the - money jujube options this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not mentioned [52]. - Stock market: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni, but specific data is not mentioned [54].