农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | 投资咨询证号： Z0015153 联系方式： 010-68518793 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月06日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

果蔬品月报 | 2026-01-04 苹果优果压制走货，红枣关注节日氛围 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 风险 产区天气情况、节日备货进度、销区走货情况 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，截止12月底收盘，苹果2605合约9120元/吨，环比上月下跌459元/吨，跌幅4.79%。据钢联数据，现货方 面，山东栖霞地区80#一二级现货价格8200元/吨，环比上月上涨700元/吨，现货基差AP05-920，环比上涨1159。陕 西洛川地区70#以上半商品现货价格8400元/吨，环比上月上涨100元/吨，现货基差AP05-720，环比上涨559。 近期市场资讯，截止2025年第52周，农业农村部监测的六种水果批发均价为7.82元/公斤，环比第51周上涨0.25元/ 公斤，环比上月上涨0.51元/公斤。2024-2025产季库存结束，根据卓创资讯的数据，截至2025年12月25日，全国苹 果冷库库存量约为702.1万吨，环比上月冷库库存下降27.25万吨。从区域分布情况来看，主产区中，山东产地冷库 苹果库存量约265.5万吨，陕西产地冷库库存量约196.64万吨；其余非主产 ...

【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国 GDP 数据数据公布，三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%，创两年 最快增速，整体表现相对强劲，在一定程度上打击了降息预期。美国就业市场回温，上周 首申 21.4 万人，较前值小幅回落，整体数据显示劳动力市场仍具韧性。在缺乏新催化剂、 流动性偏紧的背景下，美联储会议纪要未能提振美股。接下来重点关注特朗普公布的下任 美联储主席人选情况。国内方面，政治局会议与中央经济工作会议延续"稳中求进"总基调， 继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策；明年重点工作以扩大内需为首要任 务，核心在于推进城乡居民增收与释放服务消费潜力，同时依托创新推动新旧动能转换。 而 11 月经济数据显示工业生产韧性尚存，社会消费品零售同比增速降至 1.3%，内需表现 偏弱，仍需政策托底。关注国内 PMI 数据公布情况。 人民币汇率：7 关口迎终局检验 【行情回顾】前一交易日，在岸人民币对美元 16:30 收盘报 6.9901，较上一交易日上涨 197 个基点，创 2023 年 5 月以来新高，夜盘收报 6.9940。在岸、离岸人民币对美元一度 均升破 6.99 关口。人民币对美元中间价报 7.0348，较上 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index strategy, some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. With the growth of aerospace, satellite, robot, and battery sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market, and it is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index before the New Year's Day. For the treasury bond strategy, it is recommended to conduct band operations in the volatile pattern. In the precious metals market, due to increased short - term fluctuations, it is necessary to adjust positions and control risks. For various agricultural, livestock, energy - chemical, black - building materials, and non - ferrous metal products, corresponding trading strategies and risk - avoidance measures are provided according to their respective market conditions [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - Some institutions have pre - started the Spring Market. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices in the growth style have strengthened. After the New Year, funds are expected to enter the market from corporate to household and then to securities accounts. It is advisable to establish long positions in stock index futures with growth - related indices as the main targets before New Year's Day and buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on the CSI 1000 index [4] Treasury Bond - The fourth - quarter macroeconomic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the policy focus. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy. Treasury bond futures maintained a volatile pattern in December and are expected to continue after the New Year [9] Precious Metals - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in January next year is below 20%. The CME Group raised the performance margin for gold, silver, and other metal futures, triggering a short - term sharp correction in precious metals. It is necessary to adjust positions and control risks [13] Agricultural and Livestock Products Three Oils and Two Meals - Hold existing long positions in the 2605 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but do not chase the high. Be wary of the potential negative impact of the increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory after the festival. Hold long positions in the two meals at low levels. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [16][21] Sugar and Jujube - For sugar, the domestic sugar market is currently dull. During the festival, focus on the trend of ICE raw sugar. It is advisable to wait and see, and reduce long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options. For jujube, there are still insufficient positive factors in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging [24] Cotton, Apple, and Log - Cotton may adjust in the short term, but the bottom support is strong. Apple's futures price is likely to remain in a high - level range - bound due to the structural contradiction of low inventory and low high - quality fruit rate. Logs are expected to maintain a low - level range - bound, and it is recommended to conduct range operations and pay attention to capital trends [17][26][27] Corn, Pig, and Egg - For corn, it is recommended to take profits on previous long positions and hold a light or empty position during the festival. Pig prices are seasonally strong in the short term, and it is necessary to manage positions during the festival. Egg prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the scale of chicken culling in January and manage positions during the festival [18][29][30][32] Energy and Chemical Products Crude Oil - The EIA inventory increased. Geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela are rising. The market believes that there is a chance for the Russia - Ukraine situation to ease, and there are concerns about long - term oversupply. It is recommended to hold a light position and be wary of the escalation of geopolitical risks [38] Lithium Carbonate - Some positive material factories are jointly overhauling, but the production of some links is decreasing. The non - ferrous and precious metals sector has corrected before the festival, and the exchange has introduced restrictive measures. It is necessary to pay attention to position management and the support level of 115,000 yuan/ton [40] Methanol - The port inventory is high, but the port market is stronger than the inland market. Iranian methanol production has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly in mid - to - late January. The main contract has strong support below and is limited by polyolefin prices above. It is recommended to continue holding long positions and pay attention to port inventory reduction and Iranian plant operations [43] Urea - The inventory pressure of upstream factories has been relieved. Some urea plants are reducing production due to environmental protection. The spring plowing season is coming. The short - term price is slightly strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [46] Bottle Chips - The production and supply of bottle chips have changed little, and downstream demand is gradually improving. The short - term price fluctuates with raw materials, and it is advisable to take a bullish view. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [48] Pure Benzene - The arbitrage window between Asia and America has opened, and the port is slightly accumulating inventory, but the speed has slowed down. The downstream demand has declined, and the short - term price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to take a bullish view on dips and pay attention to port arrivals and the transaction price in the US dollar pure - benzene market. Be wary of significant fluctuations in crude oil during the festival [51] Rubber System - For natural rubber, the upward momentum has weakened, the port inventory is accumulating, and some downstream tire enterprises have maintenance plans. It is recommended to reduce long positions or use options for hedging. For synthetic rubber, the price of upstream raw materials has risen, and the cost is supportive. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or use options for hedging [54] Black and Building Materials Steel - The supply and demand of the five major steel products have decreased, the inventory is being depleted, and the winter storage market has not started yet. The inventory may accumulate later. The market is expected to be volatile during the festival. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [61] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are expected to change little during the festival. The daily average pig iron production has increased slightly, the arrival volume has decreased, and the shipping volume has increased seasonally. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. Pay attention to the shipping situation of foreign mines. It is recommended to hold a light or empty position [64] Coking Coal and Coke - The coal mine production is stable, and the import volume is high. The downstream steel mill profitability has stopped falling, and the pig iron production has stabilized. The traditional winter storage demand is not obvious, but the rigid demand before the Spring Festival may support the price. The fourth round of coke price cuts may be implemented on January 1. The double - coke market is expected to be range - bound before and after the festival, and it is not recommended to chase short positions [67] Ferroalloys - The supply of manganese silicon is relatively loose, and the supply of silicon iron is in a tight - balance state. Due to the winter storage expectation, the double - silicon may have a concentrated replenishment after the festival. The market sentiment is positive, and the market performance is strong. It is recommended to hold a light position and not hold short positions during the festival [72] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract is near the technical resistance level and close to the overbought state. Combined with year - end capital repatriation and profit - taking, short - term fluctuations will intensify [74][79] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum is in a game between cost support and inventory pressure. It has no basis for a deep decline but lacks demand - driven upward momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival [75][81] Alumina - The alumina price is in a historical low range, but lacks clear demand - driven rebound momentum. It is not advisable to chase short positions or hold heavy long positions before the festival. After the festival, pay attention to the downstream resumption rhythm and inventory depletion speed [76][85] Caustic Soda - The current price is at a historical low. It is not recommended to chase short positions unilaterally. Pay attention to the maintenance announcements of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong and Jiangsu and the procurement dynamics of alumina factories before the festival [76][89]

宏观：双主线引爆市场：有色金属狂欢与人民币升值 【市场资讯】1）2026 年全国两会召开时间来了：政协 3 月 4 日，人大 3 月 5 日。2）财政 部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 3）中国 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业 利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的主因。4）香港财政司司长陈茂 波：三方面助力人民币国际化，吸引全球优质公司来港上市，开拓国际黄金交易新机遇。5） 克里姆林宫：俄美总统均认为以公投为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。特朗普称俄乌均 有意结束冲突，美乌将达成安全协议。6）芝商所 12 月 26 日发布重大保证金调整通知称， 将于 12 月 29 日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 金融期货早评 【核心逻辑】上周市场呈现有色金属强势上涨与人民币汇率加速升值的双主线特征。有色 金属板块中，白银表现尤为突出。本轮白银上涨是供需格局、资金动向及比价效应共同作 用的结果，但短期涨幅过高叠加明年 1 月大宗商品指数调仓带来的减持压力，需警惕回调 风险， ...

回顾活动历程，2024年首次面向市场公开征集便收获热烈反响，参与单位涵盖国家部委下属事业单位、 期货公司、产业企业、媒体、高校、证券公司、保险公司等，形成浓厚的外部参与氛围，显著提升了活 动影响力。首届作品主题集中于产业企业运用棉花、白糖、PTA、苹果、花生、玻璃等品种对冲市场风 险，生动呈现了期货市场在服务中小企业、助农增收、推动产业转型升级、赋能区域经济发展等方面的 积极作用。 本届征稿同样获得市场主体广泛响应，投稿主体包括期货公司、产业企业、媒体等各类机构及个人，部 分优质主体凭借持续深耕产业服务的实践积累，实现连续两年入围。参赛作品均为原创且未在重点媒体 平台刊发，内容聚焦实际问题，详细阐述了运用期货工具解决市场痛点的具体路径，涵盖风险识别、方 案设计、实施成效等核心要素。 12月25日，郑州商品交易所（以下简称"郑商所"）正式发布公告，2025"高质量发展中的期货力量"征稿 活动圆满落幕。经专家评审严格筛选，25篇聚焦期货服务实体经济实践的优秀稿件成功入围，集中展现 了期现融合的丰硕成效。 据记者了解，郑商所"高质量发展中的期货力量"征稿活动已连续开展2年，累计征集原创作品165篇。稿 件内容覆盖面 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-12-26 苹果优果价格坚挺，红枣旺季消费偏弱 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9208元/吨，较前一日变动+17元/吨，幅度+0.18%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1008，较前一日变动-17；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-808，较前一日变动-17。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士主流行情稳定，成交氛围仍显一般。洛川部分产区果农货价格略有松动，目前部分产 区果农货询价增多，库内包装发运略有增加，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果 农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量 75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/ 斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3元/ 斤。 ...

苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9230元/吨，较前一日变动+81元/吨，幅度+0.89%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-1030，较前一日变动-81；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-830，较前一日变动-81。 近期市场资讯，库存晚富士行情运行偏稳定，库内成交相对清淡，主要包装前期订购货源及客商自存货源陆续发 往市场。西部产区客商零星寻货，多以果农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存 货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓，少量75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞 80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农货半商品出库 价格3.8-4.3元/斤。甘肃产区静宁果农一般通货出库价格3.7-4.5元/斤不等。产区节日备货热度不高，客商拿货不积 极，包装自存货源为主。双旦前或继续维持目前走货状态，随着节日临近，包装发运或 ...