农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 早熟嘎啦上量增加，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8141元/吨，较前一日变动+47元/吨，幅度+0.58%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-641，较前一日变动-47；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+859，较前一日变动-47。 近期市场资讯，早熟嘎啦质量不均，客商按需拿货，价格维持两极分化，好货维持坚挺难跌，一般货源价格混乱。 山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果库存富士行情维持稳淡， 山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，部分果农及持货商开始让价出售。陕西洛川产区纸袋嘎啦70#起步 主流参考价4-4.5元/斤附近，好货4.8-5元/斤，一般货2.8-3元/斤，实际以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/ 斤，果农80#以上统货2.3-3.0元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.3-4.5元/斤，80#一二级片红3.0-4.0元/斤 ...

期货市场交易指引 南华商品指数 2025 年 08 月 25 日 | 宏观金融 | | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | 黑色建材 | | | ◆焦煤： | 区间交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | 有色金属 | | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 ◆铝： | | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | 能源化工 | | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | 棉纺产业链 | | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | 农业畜牧 | | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： ...

| 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 现手 | | 天0 | | 委价 湘幅8 买量 英里 | | 成交量 测绘 | 持仓里 | 日后会 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 焦煤2601 M | 1210.0 2149 | | 1210.0 | 1210.5 | 6.00% | 92 31 | 878237 68.5 | 700380 | -308 | | 2 | 集词2601 M | 1740.0 | 32 | 1739.5 | 1740.0 | 4.60% | 2 8 | 18459 76.5 | 38641 | 350 | | 3 | 燃料油2510 M | 2861 | 1084 | 2861 | 2862 | 3.40% | 1 67 | 413077 94 | 134070 | 8281 | | ব | 玻璃2601 M | 1200 | 85 | 1200 | 1201 | 3.00% | 72 1085 | 1012473 | 35 1126099 | -22608 | | ഗ | ...

机构 核心观点 中辉期货：红枣场仍旧建议逢低做多 格林大华期货 仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价 8月22日盘中，红枣期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至11220.00元。截止发稿，红枣主力合 约报11225.00元，跌幅2.56%。 格林大华期货：仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价 红枣期货主力跌超2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 当下国内红枣期价仍以围绕产量话题为主，近期关注产区降雨对红枣质量的影响。结合前期流出的少量 收购合同价格和当下枣农的心理预期，后市红枣或仍有进一步打开上方空间的可能。短期建议多关注下 游现货价格与技术指引，当前建议仍以偏多思路看待红枣期价。 中辉期货 红枣场仍旧建议逢低做多 初步判断2025/26年度新疆南疆灰枣市场预期总产量处于50-58万吨区间，减产已成定局，但减产幅度大 概率不敌2023/24年的35万吨，后期结合结转库存存在压力。短期，作为为数不多参与"反内卷"的农产 品，11月前市场围绕开秤价的炒作期相对较长，且近期去库速度有所加快，仍旧利好多头趋势。策略 上，节奏预计先强后弱，当下市场仍旧建议逢低做多。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-08-22 库内果走货减缓，红枣关注产区天气 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8103元/吨，较前一日变动+39元/吨，幅度+0.48%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-503，较前一日变动-39；陕西洛川70# 以上 半商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+897，较前一日变动-39。 近期市场资讯，早熟方面，西部嘎啦陆续上量，整体果个偏小，红货好货占比仍不多，价格维持两极分化，陕北 嘎啦质量优于渭南产区。山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积极性尚可。苹果 库存富士行情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，目前价格表现混乱，部分果农及持货商 开始让价出售。陕西渭南合阳纸袋嘎啦70#起步一般货参考价3.0-3.2元/斤附近，上色不好货源价格2.2-2.5元/斤，实 际以质论价。 山东栖霞产区果农三级2.0-2.5元/斤，果农80#以上统货2.8-3.3元/斤，80#一二级条纹3.5-4.5元/斤，8 ...

Core Insights - The event "2024 World Investor Week" focused on investor suitability assessment and knowledge training on futures products, supported by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange [1][2] - The training aimed to enhance investors' understanding of legal frameworks, risk management, and specific futures products, promoting rational investment practices [1][2] Group 1: Event Overview - The training session was held at the Ramada Hotel in Zibo, Shandong, with participation from 64 investors from the region [2] - The event featured expert speakers, including Wang Zhixin from Shandong Fulian International Trade Co., and Jin Jie from Hangzhou Yijia Bohe Investment Management Co., who provided insights on legal regulations and futures market analysis [1][2] Group 2: Training Content - The first half of the training covered legal frameworks and investor suitability management, emphasizing the importance of compliance and risk assessment [1] - The second half focused on key futures products from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, including methanol, apples, and red dates, discussing contract design, market analysis, and trading strategies [2] Group 3: Investor Engagement - The event facilitated active interaction and discussions among participants, enhancing their ability to identify illegal futures activities and understand market mechanisms [2] - The company expressed its commitment to continue offering diverse training and market service activities across the country, promoting rational investment concepts [2]

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 保持观望 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 09 空头看待 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易或观望 | | ◆铝： | 建议待回落后逢低布局多单 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 震荡 | | ◆纯碱： | 09 合约空头持有 | | ◆烧碱： | 震荡 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 震荡 | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 宽幅震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： 震荡偏强 | | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆鸡蛋： | 逢高偏空 | | ◆ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].

农产品日报 | 2025-08-20 苹果库内交易一般，红枣等外价格上涨 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2510合约8150元/吨，较前一日变动-80元/吨，幅度-0.97%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.80元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10-550，较前一日变动+80；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.50元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP10+850，较前一日变动+80。 近期市场资讯，早熟苹果上量继续增加，陕北早熟纸袋嘎啦陆续上市交易，早熟嘎啦整体质量分化明显，果个不 均、上色不佳，价格随之亦显两极分化。山东产区鲁丽、金都红、奶油华硕有序交易，整体量不大，客商采购积 极性尚可。苹果库存富士行情维持稳淡，山东产区客商拿货积极性一般，成交氛围不旺，客商多压价收购，85#果 压价明显。销区市场需求不佳，应季水果冲击仍较明显。陕西渭南合阳纸袋嘎啦70#起步一般货参考价3.0-3.2元/ 斤附近，上色不好的货源价格2.2-2.5元/斤，实际以质论价。山东库存果成交氛围不旺，客商多压价收购，低价片 红货源走货为主，大果需求较差。山 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures - bullish on dips; Treasury bonds - hold off [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - range trading; Glass - weakening in a range; Coking coal and coke - range - bound [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or hold off; Aluminum - buy on dips after pullbacks; Nickel - hold off or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][12][13] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakening in a range; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - range - bound; Styrene - range - bound; Rubber - strengthening in a range; Urea - range - bound; Methanol - range - bound; Polyolefins - wide - range weakening [1][19][20] - **Cotton and Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - strengthening in a range; Apples - strengthening in a range; Red dates - strengthening in a range [1][35][36] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - range - bound; Soybean meal - range - bound; Oils - strengthening in a range [1][37][38] Core Views - Market conditions are influenced by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and international events. Different futures varieties present different trends and investment opportunities due to their own characteristics and external impacts [6][9][12] Summary by Categories Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: With the T + 0 function, maintain positions, lock in positions when there is a downward trend, and earn profits during the heat - up period. Consider the impacts of international events like China - India and US - Russia - Ukraine meetings [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the bond allocation value is emerging and market sentiment is recovering, it is not recommended to enter the market aggressively due to potential disturbances from the equity market and possible chain - reactions from yield adjustments [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Futures prices continue to decline. Considering factors like external trade policies, production, and inventory, it is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Focus on the [3100 - 3300] range for RB2510 [9] - **Glass**: Futures are in a weakening trend. With inventory pressure and potential policy impacts, the 09 contract is considered weak, and attention should be paid to the 930 - 950 support level [8][9][10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is in a game between tight supply and weakening demand, and is expected to be range - bound. Coke is supported by low inventory, high demand, and supply disturbances, and is also expected to be range - bound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by macro - data and supply - demand fundamentals, it is expected to be range - bound with a slightly upward trend. The short - term operating range for Shanghai copper is 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [12][13] - **Aluminum**: Despite short - term negative events, considering the transition from the off - season to the peak season, it is recommended to buy on dips [13][14] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to long - term, the supply is in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: With improving supply and weakening demand in the off - season, it is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range for the SH09 contract being 257,000 - 276,000 yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US economic data and geopolitical events, they are expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to buy on dips [17][18] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, uncertain export sustainability, and weak demand, it is expected to be in a weakening range. The 01 contract is temporarily focused on the 4900 - 5000 range [19][20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: With sufficient supply and rigid demand with a slow - down in growth, the 01 contract is expected to be range - bound in the 2550 - 2650 range [21][22] - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental positives and a warm macro - environment, the price is expected to be range - bound in the 7100 - 7400 range [23][24] - **Rubber**: With cost support and inventory reduction, it is expected to be in a strengthening range within the 15200 - 15600 range [25][27] - **Urea**: Affected by supply, demand, and export factors, the 01 contract is under pressure at 1820 - 1850 [28] - **Methanol**: With a slight decline in supply, stable demand from methanol - to - olefins, and weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be in a weakening range [30] - **Polyolefins**: With cost uncertainties and a slow recovery in downstream demand, the L2509 contract is focused on the 7200 - 7500 range, and the PP2509 contract is focused on the 6900 - 7200 range [30][31] - **Soda Ash**: Due to supply increases and potential inventory accumulation, it is recommended to hold short positions on the 09 contract [33] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: With improved global supply - demand, a better macro - environment, and expectations of the peak season, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [35] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth impacts, the price is expected to maintain a high - level range - bound pattern [36] - **Red Dates**: With the current growth situation and market conditions, the price is expected to strengthen in a range [36] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: With supply pressure and different expectations for different contracts, it is recommended to lock in profits on short positions at low levels, add short positions at pressure levels, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: With sufficient short - term supply and uncertain long - term supply, it is recommended to short on rallies for the 10 contract and consider long positions on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the elimination process accelerates [38][39][40] - **Corn**: With sufficient supply and suitable growing conditions, the 11 contract is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to short on rallies or hold the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [40] - **Soybean Meal**: With a tightening supply - demand situation for US soybeans and different supply - demand patterns in different periods in China, it is recommended to hold long positions on a rolling basis and reduce positions on rallies [42] - **Oils**: With short - term high - level callback risks and long - term positive factors, it is recommended to buy on dips, take profits on existing long positions, and pay attention to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [43][44][50]