Report Information - The report is written by the Agricultural Products Team of Fangzheng Futures, including Hou Zhifang, Song Congzhi, Wang Liangliang, and Tang Binghua, and was completed on November 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Core Views - **Sugar**: Indian sugar mills are increasing their production, and new sugar is being listed in China, causing sugar prices to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions and consider selling call options [3] - **Pulp**: The pulp market has shifted from rising to falling. Although the cost of warehouse receipts provides some support, the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited. It is advisable to reduce short positions when approaching the support level [4] - **Double - offset paper**: The spot price is stable, and the seasonal demand improvement is insufficient to significantly improve the fundamentals. It is recommended to take short positions on rebounds [5] - **Cotton**: Globally and in the US, there is an expectation of a slight inventory build - up. In the domestic market, production is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8] - **Apples**: The peak of apple storage is lower than expected, and the yield and high - quality fruit rate are decreasing year - on - year. It is recommended to hold long positions in the May contract cautiously [9] - **Jujubes**: In November, the futures - spot price difference has returned, and the supply - demand is shifting to a double - strong situation. Aggressive investors can consider reverse arbitrage or long positions with protective put options [10] Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, hold long positions cautiously; for Jujube 2601, short on rebounds [18] - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, hold short positions; for Pulp 2601, wait and see; for Double - offset paper 2601, short on rebounds; for Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously [18] Part II: Sector Weekly Market Review I. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9570 | 530 | 5.86% | | Jujube 2601 | 9190 | - 400 | - 4.17% | | Sugar 2601 | 5470 | 13 | 0.24% | | Pulp 2511 | 4900 | 28 | 0.57% | | Double - offset paper 2601 | 4264 | 8 | 0.19% | | Cotton 2601 | 13450 | - 130 | - 0.96% | [19] II. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.00 | 0.00 | - 0.25 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5550 | 0 | - 730 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14371 | - 420 | - 912 | [23] Part III: Sector Basis Situation - The report provides basis data charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, Pulp, and Cotton, but does not provide specific numerical analysis [35] Part IV: Inter - month Spread Situation - The report provides inter - month spread data charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, and Cotton, but does not provide specific numerical analysis [41] Part V: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 7971 | - 11 | - 3109 | | Pulp | 210549 | 991 | - 165471 | | Cotton | 2244 | - 1259 | 1964 | | Cotton Yarn | 17 | - 10 | 17 | [48] Part VI: Option - related Data | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The peak of storage is lower than expected, and the futures price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is listed intensively | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Supply increases, and it is hard to rise | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | There is still pressure from phased supply, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support exists, but the upward driving force of fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with an exercise price of 4900 and call options with an exercise price of 5300 | [50] Part VII: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation I. Apple - **Weather in Producing Areas**: Provide temperature and precipitation data charts for Shandong and Shaanxi [67] - **Export Situation**: Provide charts of monthly apple export volume [71] - **Inventory Situation**: Provide charts of weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [73] II. Jujube - Provide charts of weekly jujube trading volume in Henan and Hebei, and daily jujube arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [77] III. Sugar - Provide charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures spread [78] IV. Pulp - Provide charts of domestic pulp inventory in four ports, global pulp producer inventory days, and production volume of various paper products [83] V. Double - offset paper - Provide charts of double - offset paper capacity utilization, production volume, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption [95] VI. Cotton - Provide charts of clothing retail sales and inventory data in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and textile industry data [100]

软商品日报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂跌超8%，沪银跌超3%，红枣、低硫燃料 油（LU）、集运指数（欧线）、玻璃、工业硅、SC原油跌超2%；涨幅方面，淀粉涨超1%，玉米涨近 1%。 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-21 苹果主产区入库基本结束，红枣剩余货源价格松动 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易以稳为主。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库工作陆续进入后期，库 内交易较为稳定，好货价格稳定运行，短期内在外贸渠道等托底下行情预计维持稳定为主。目前受到柑橘等竞品 水果冲击，市场走货一般，后续关注市场对库存货源的消化能力。 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9496元/吨，较前一日变动+121元/吨，幅度+1.29%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一 二级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 晚富士多产区以质论价，红枣新货接受度一般 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2601合约9375元/吨，较前一日变动-58元/吨，幅度-0.61%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格3.75元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1875，较前一日变动+58；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.15元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP01-1075，较前一日变动+58。 近期市场资讯，晚富士地面及入库交易逐步扫尾，库内交易表现稳定。西部出库仍集中在甘肃及陕西旬邑产区， 果农好货调货为主，库内陆续包装发市场，部分客商调货转存。山东地面交易陆续收尾，市场货源有所减少，地 面货源质量有所下滑，果农顺价卖货为主。栖霞80#一二级主流参考价3.5-4元/斤，栖霞80#一二级半主流参考价 3.0-3.3元/斤，统货价格2.0-3.0元/斤，65#价格1.7元/斤附近。甘肃产区静宁果农好货出库价格4.5-5.5元/斤不等。庆 阳出库价格3.6-4.5元/斤不等；陕西产区咸阳旬邑等产区果农货出库价格3.0-3.5元/斤。入库 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 红枣期货：抄底需谨慎，震荡筑底是主基调 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/20 11月19日红枣期货2601合约结算价收于9332元/吨，但当前市场仍不具备明确重仓抄底条件，短多对待。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面看，旧季库存同比增幅超120%，新枣集中下树进度达6-8成，供需压力尚未缓解；消费端旺季未 启，销区采购谨慎，需求缺乏实质支撑。不过期现价差已收敛，期货对现货呈现贴水状态，且仓单注册量 偏低，旧枣贴水交割规则限制了跌幅，盘面下跌空间收窄。 技术面来看，合约跌破万点后进入震荡区间，趋势的反转不是三五天就能改变的，需要足够的震荡筑底时 间。 虽然有些品种反转快一点例如烧碱、锰硅等；那些持仓量巨大，产业链牵涉广泛的品种例如铜、铝、双焦 等品种往往需要更长的横盘时间。 只有足够的时间才能完成多空力量的转换，也只有足够的时间才能让产业供需发生改变。投 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Apple investment strategy: Neutral to bullish [4] - Red date investment strategy: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Apple: The price of late Fuji apples is generally stable. The western warehouse transactions are fair, while the ground transactions in Shandong are winding down. The inflow of market goods is limited, and the sales area is in the off - season. The inflow of citrus squeezes the sales space of apples. The inventory of new - season late Fuji is lower than last year, and the proportion of good - quality goods has decreased [2][3] - Red dates: The purchase progress in some areas of Xinjiang has accelerated, and farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The spot market purchase enthusiasm has weakened, and the new - season red dates are expected to be listed in a concentrated manner, with large inventory pressure. The quality of red dates is better than last year, and the actual consumption situation will be a key focus [7][8] Group 3: Market News and Important Data Apple - Futures: The closing price of the Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,433 yuan/ton, a change of - 5 yuan/ton or - 0.05% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [1] Red Dates - Futures: The closing price of the Red Date 2601 contract yesterday was 9,325 yuan/ton, a change of + 55 yuan/ton or + 0.59% from the previous day [5] - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.90 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [5] Group 4: Recent Market Information Apple - Western warehouse transactions of late Fuji are fair, with fruit farmers mainly selling high - quality goods. The ground transactions in Shandong are winding down, with reduced supply and declining quality. The prices of high - quality goods are stable, and the market is under the support of foreign trade channels. The market is affected by competing fruits such as citrus, and the follow - up focus is on the digestion ability of inventory goods [2] Red Dates - The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and some farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The purchase in Ruoqiang, Hotan, and Qiemo has basically ended. The raw material purchase in production areas is priced according to quality. The purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The spot price is expected to be weakly stable in the short term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis Apple - Yesterday, the apple futures price fluctuated and closed down. The high - quality goods transactions in the western warehouses of late Fuji are stable, and the ground transactions in Shandong are winding down. The new - season late Fuji inventory work is coming to an end, with inventory lower than last year. The market in the sales area is in the off - season, and the inflow of citrus squeezes the sales space of apples. This week, focus on the inventory completion in Shandong and Shanxi and the shipment speed in the west [3] Red Dates - Yesterday, the red date futures price closed slightly up. The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar has accelerated, and farmers' price - holding sentiment has loosened. The spot market purchase enthusiasm has weakened, and the new - season red dates are expected to be listed in a concentrated manner. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of red dates is better than last year, and the actual consumption situation will be a key focus [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For jujube futures, it's necessary to be cautious when bottom - fishing. The main tone is to build a bottom through oscillation, and short - term long positions are recommended [2][3]. - For stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - negative line, forming a three - consecutive - negative trend. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. - For gold, after a rebound, it is currently approaching an important resistance level. Oscillation will intensify at this stage, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of finding a bottom with weak domestic demand support. Technically, it is running strongly today and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [13]. - For glass, the daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory reduction is not sustainable. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. Technically, it has broken through the support level and shows no sign of stabilization, so it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [17]. - For methanol, this week, the inventory at methanol ports has accumulated, and the overall unloading speed is good. The inventory in the East China region has accumulated under stable supply, while the inventory at South China ports has slightly decreased. There are opportunities for short - term short and long - term long positions [20]. - For pulp, the import volume in October decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is on a downward trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant. The downstream cultural paper has started sporadic publication tenders, boosting market confidence, but the social demand is flat, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The futures market has shown an oscillating and downward - biased trend recently [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Jujube Futures - On November 18, the jujube futures 2601 contract closed at 9,285 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. But the market doesn't have clear conditions for heavy - position bottom - fishing, and short - term long positions are appropriate [3]. - Fundamentally, the old - season inventory has increased by over 120% year - on - year. The new jujube harvesting progress is 60% - 80%. The supply - demand pressure has not been relieved. The consumption peak season has not started, and the purchasing in sales areas is cautious, lacking substantial demand support. However, the basis has converged, the futures are at a discount to the spot, the warehouse receipt registration volume is low, and the old - jujube discount delivery rule limits the decline, narrowing the downward space of the futures price [3]. - Technically, after the contract fell below 10,000 points, it entered an oscillating range. A trend reversal takes time for oscillation and bottom - building [3]. Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - negative line, forming a three - consecutive - negative trend. The Asia - Pacific market tumbled, with the Japanese and South Korean stock markets falling by over 3%. The Fed is expected not to cut interest rates in the first half of next year. The short - term market is expected to continue high - level oscillation [6]. Gold - After a rebound, gold is currently approaching an important resistance level. Oscillation will intensify at this stage, and it is expected to oscillate for some time [11]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply surplus is further fermented. In terms of demand, except for the remaining momentum in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a downturn [13][14]. - Technically, it is running strongly today and should be treated with a wide - range oscillation strategy, buying low and selling high [13]. Glass - The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory reduction is not sustainable. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [17]. - Technically, it has broken through the support level and shows no sign of stabilization, so it should be regarded as oscillating with a downward bias [17]. Methanol - This week, the inventory at methanol ports has accumulated, and the overall unloading speed is good. The inventory in the East China region has accumulated under stable supply, while the inventory at South China ports has slightly decreased [20]. - There are opportunities for short - term short and long - term long positions [20]. Pulp - The import volume in October decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is on a downward trend. However, the supply in the market is still abundant [23]. - The downstream cultural paper has started sporadic publication tenders, boosting market confidence, but the social demand is flat, and the paper mill's gross profit continues to decline. The futures market has shown an oscillating and downward - biased trend recently [23].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on November 18, 2025, covering the performance, market overview, and analysis of various domestic futures contracts [3]. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on November 18, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates and iron ore rose over 1%, while lithium carbonate and BR rubber rose nearly 1%. In terms of declines, coking coal fell nearly 4%, and the container shipping index (European line), coke, Shanghai silver, and double-coated paper fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, the CSI 300 (IF) main contract fell 0.41%, the SSE 50 (IH) main contract fell 0.23%, the CSI 500 (IC) main contract fell 0.85%, and the CSI 1000 (IM) main contract fell 0.69%. Among treasury bond futures, the 2-year (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, the 5-year (TF) main contract rose 0.03%, the 10-year (T) main contract rose 0.03%, and the 30-year (TL) main contract rose 0.06% [6][7]. Capital Flows - As of 15:24 on November 18, in terms of capital inflows to domestic futures main contracts, the CSI 500 2512 had an inflow of 1.722 billion yuan, the CSI 300 2512 had an inflow of 1.254 billion yuan, and the CSI 1000 2512 had an inflow of 890 million yuan. In terms of outflows, the Shanghai gold 2512 had an outflow of 3.546 billion yuan, the lithium carbonate 2601 had an outflow of 2.323 billion yuan, and the Shanghai copper 2512 had an outflow of 1.474 billion yuan [7]. Market Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and closed low, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, 5 smelters are expected to undergo maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. However, as some smelters resume production in October and copper prices rise, production is expected to increase. Scrap copper supply increases to make up for the shortage of copper ore resources. On the demand side, rising copper prices limit downstream consumption, and except for the power and new energy battery sectors, downstream demand is weak. The probability of a December interest rate cut has dropped significantly, causing market confidence to decline and putting pressure on the market. Copper production is expected to increase, while demand is transitioning from peak to off - peak season. Before the probability of a rate cut changes, copper prices will be weakly adjusted [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened high and closed low, showing intraday strength. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 85,050 yuan/ton, also up 1,250 yuan/ton. Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo is expected to resume production after December. In October 2025, lithium carbonate production was 89,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,790 tons. As of November 14, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.34% higher than the same period last year. The domestic production of energy - storage batteries in October was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The market is optimistic about energy - storage demand. Lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing for weeks, and the number of warehouse receipts has dropped significantly. The market sentiment has been boosted, but the potential resumption of Jiaxiaowo's production is a negative factor. The strong demand drives the price to oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream demand [11]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as in October and November, and will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. Saudi Aramco has lowered the official selling price of crude oil to Asia in December. The peak demand season has ended, and US crude oil inventories have increased more than expected. US crude oil production has reached a new high. The US has imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, and India may reduce its imports of Russian oil. Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Libya may disrupt supply. However, the market is worried about demand, and the supply - surplus situation in the crude oil market has become more obvious. The price of crude oil is expected to oscillate weakly [12][13]. Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 29.0% last week, lower than the same period last year. The expected production in November is 2.228 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.0%. The downstream operating rate is mostly stable, but road construction is restricted by funds and weather. National shipments decreased by 31.02% to 213,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has slightly increased but remains at a low level. Some refineries plan to switch to producing residual oil, and demand will weaken further. With the oversupply of crude oil, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.14 percentage points to 53.28%, still at a relatively low level. The operating rate of the plastic - weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 44.24%. On November 18, new maintenance devices were added, and the PP enterprise operating rate dropped to about 82%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn remained at about 24%. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. Although the crude oil price rebounded after a decline, the increase is limited due to the oversupply of crude oil. New production capacity has been put into operation, and downstream orders have limited follow - up. PP is expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Plastic - On November 18, some maintenance devices of plastics restarted, and the operating rate rose to about 88%. As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49%. The agricultural film industry is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level. Petrochemical inventories are at a neutral level. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The peak season of the agricultural film industry is not as good as expected, and downstream procurement willingness is weak. The plastic price is expected to oscillate weakly [17][18]. PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the northwest region increased by 25 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 78.51%, still at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has slightly declined. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, but the upcoming anti - dumping tax has made traders cautious. Social inventories have slightly decreased but remain high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the PVC industry lacks actual policies. The PVC price is expected to oscillate weakly [19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened flat and closed low. The spot price in the Shanxi market increased, and the import volume in October decreased year - on - year. Although the Mongolian border will be closed for one day on November 21, the customs clearance volume remains high, and domestic coal production is increasing. Mines and coke enterprises are reducing inventories, while steel mills are increasing inventories. Coke enterprises are facing losses, and their production enthusiasm has decreased. Although steel mill production has increased, the short - term demand for coking coal is pessimistic. Coking coal is expected to be weakly adjusted in the short term, but the downside is limited due to upcoming environmental inspections [20][21]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed high, with a strong oscillation. The futures rebound has boosted market sentiment, and downstream agricultural dealers are increasing low - price fertilizer reserves. The supply is still abundant, and production is expected to increase. Coal prices are rising, but the increase is narrowing. Downstream dealers are more active in purchasing, and although the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has decreased due to environmental inspections, it is expected to improve after the inspections end. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The international urea market has changed, and the price of urea is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside is limited by high daily production [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price has rebounded, but the fundamentals at home and abroad remain unchanged. The supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised downward, which slightly boosts sentiment. However, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the weekly export volume in November decreased year - on - year. In China, new sugar is on the market, and the main contract is under pressure at 5500. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies and hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has followed, but the increase is weaker. The short - term rise is mainly due to the increase in warehouse receipt costs. The demand improvement of downstream wood - pulp paper is limited. Although the global pulp shipment volume increased in September, the shipment volume of softwood pulp to China decreased year - on - year, and China's pulp imports decreased in October. The market is advised to wait and see as the upside space is limited [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price remains stable, and the peak season has limited impact on the market. The cost is supported by the rising pulp futures price, but the upside is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and it is recommended to short near the resistance level [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market is weak. The USDA November report is bearish for US cotton, and the domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly. The demand improvement is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8][9]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apples**: The production and high - quality fruit rate have decreased year - on - year, which provides core support. The apple warehousing in the producing areas is progressing steadily. The 01 contract is expected to remain strong at a high level, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2605 contract cautiously [10]. - **Jujubes**: In November, the jujube futures price dropped significantly and then fluctuated at a low level. The supply has become more abundant, and the expectation of production reduction has failed. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold a reverse spread strategy or long positions in the 2605 contract with protective put options [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously as the inventory continues to decline year - on - year. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the cooling of the production reduction expectation [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rallies as the external market is under pressure and new sugar is on the market. For Pulp 2601, wait and see as the upside space is limited. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rallies as the demand improvement is limited. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously as the new cotton production is expected to increase and the consumption confidence is insufficient [20]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9040 | - 198 | - 2.14 | | Jujube 2601 | 9590 | - 555 | - 5.47 | | Sugar 2601 | 5457 | - 26 | - 0.47 | | Pulp 2511 | 4872 | 34 | 0.70 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4278 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13580 | - 15 | - 0.11 | [21] b. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4 | 0.00 | 0.7 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5500 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14806 | - 13 | - 590 | [24] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of Apple 1 - month contract, Jujube main - continuous contract, etc. [32][33][34] Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spread between Apple 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, etc. [42][44][46] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8622 | 901 | - 4507 | | Pulp | 220368 | - 1493 | - 157345 | | Cotton | 4401 | 221 | 1980 | [48] Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The inventory continues to decline year - on - year, and the price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is concentrated on the market | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamentals are bearish | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The supply is temporarily abundant, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the upward driving force of the fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with a strike price of 4900 and call options with a strike price of 5300 | [50] b. Option Data for Each Variety There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the trading volume, open interest, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [52][53][56] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apples - **Producing Area Weather**: There are references to figures of the minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [60][61][62]. - **Export Situation**: There is a reference to the figure of the monthly apple export volume [63][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are references to figures of the weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [66][68]. b. Jujubes There are references to figures of the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [70]. c. Sugar There are references to figures of the national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures spread of sugar [71][72][75]. d. Pulp There are references to figures of the pulp inventory in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood - pulp inventory days, and the weekly production of various types of paper [76][77][79]. e. Offset Paper There are references to figures of the capacity utilization rate, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper [88][89][91]. f. Cotton There are references to figures of the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as the industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and production of cotton - related products in China [93][94][97]