Core Viewpoint - The red jujube futures market is experiencing a cautious outlook, with recent price fluctuations and inventory levels influencing market sentiment [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On July 28, the main contract for red jujube futures saw a rapid increase, peaking at 11,275.00 yuan, and closing at 10,865.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 3.82% [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures maintains a cautious bearish outlook on the red jujube market, citing that the new season's crop is in a critical fruit-setting period, with weather conditions being a focal point [2]. - According to Zhonghui Futures, the expected production for this year is likely to be normal or slightly reduced, with no significant decrease in yield anticipated from the second crop setting [2]. - Ruida Futures suggests a temporary wait-and-see approach, noting that the current inventory levels are historically high and demand remains weak due to seasonal factors [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand Analysis - Mysteel's data indicates that physical inventory at 36 sample points is 10,090 tons, a decrease of 230 tons week-on-week, but an increase of 73.07% year-on-year [3]. - The demand for red jujube is currently weak, attributed to the seasonal availability of fresh fruits, which are acting as substitutes [3]. - The anticipated production for the new season is estimated to be between 560,000 to 620,000 tons, reflecting a potential decrease of 5-10% compared to 2022 and 20-25% compared to 2024 [3].