经济潜在增长率

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德国:将组建联合政府
券商中国· 2025-03-09 04:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) have reached a preliminary agreement to form a coalition government in Germany, with formal negotiations expected to begin next week [1][2] - The CDU's candidate for Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, and the new leader of the SPD, Lars Klingbeil, held exploratory talks and announced that they have agreed on several substantive issues [1] - The preliminary decisions include setting a potential economic growth target of "1%, preferably 2%", reducing electricity prices, and providing subsidies for electric vehicle purchases [1][2] Group 2 - Both parties believe that Germany needs stability and a new beginning for a secure future, economic strength, and social cohesion [2] - The preliminary results of the federal elections showed that the CDU and the Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition received the most votes, while the SPD ranked third [2]
大国人口:少子老龄化时代的新挑战与新机遇
泽平宏观· 2024-12-18 14:24
先来看老龄化。 中国已从2021年开始进入深度老龄化,老龄化呈现规模大、速度快、高龄 化、未富先老等特点。2023年,我国65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重为15.4%,占全球老年人 口的约1/4,相当于全球每4个老年人中就有1个中国人。老龄化是经济社会进步和人口转变的 结果,由低生育和寿命延长共同作用,是全球普遍现象,中国也不可避免。其中,长寿带来的 老龄化并不可怕,这体现了社会进步和医疗水平提升。但是,少子化带来的老龄化明显加速、 持续深化,以及未富先老等问题不容小觑。随着1962—1975年第二轮婴儿潮出生人口逐渐衰老 并进入生命终点,未来30多年中国人口老龄化将快速深化,预计2030年前后进入占比超过20% 的超级老龄化社会,之后持续快速上升至2056年的约36%。相比之下,劳动年龄人口持续萎 缩,预计2023—2050年15-64岁劳动年龄人口占比从68%降至59%。从经济学的角度看,人口 红利逐渐消失,随之而来的是,社会抚养比上升,养老负担加重,政府债务加重,社会创新创 业活力下降等。 再来看不婚化。 从成年开始,人的生命历程可分为单身、形成家庭、生育和养育孩子、孩 子离家、生命晚期等阶段,婚育是连接 ...