绿证市场回暖

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补贴清偿与绿证回暖共振,绿电板块破局进程加速
Changjiang Securities· 2025-09-07 13:15
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the green electricity sector [8]. Core Insights - The acceleration of subsidy recovery signals a significant improvement in the financial health of renewable energy operators, enhancing cash flow and potentially allowing for the reversal of previously recognized receivable impairments [2][10]. - The green certificate market is experiencing a recovery, with prices increasing due to improved supply-demand dynamics, which is expected to restore the narrative around the green electricity sector [2][10]. Summary by Sections Subsidy Recovery - In August, several companies received substantial subsidy payments, indicating a faster recovery process for industry-wide subsidies. For instance, Solar Energy, Jinko Technology, and Longyang Energy received subsidies of 1.68 billion, 939 million, and 633 million RMB respectively, accounting for 74.6%, 78.3%, and 74.5% of their annual recovery totals [10]. - The cumulative subsidy recovery from January to August for these companies increased by 258.6%, 340.5%, and 272.0% year-on-year, with total amounts far exceeding the entire recovery for 2024 [10]. Green Certificate Market - The green certificate trading volume reached 68.21 million in July, with a year-on-year increase of 126.08% for the first seven months of 2025. The average price of green certificates rose to 4.61 RMB per unit, a 35.42% increase from the previous month [10]. - The price of green certificates for 2025 has reached 6.88 RMB per unit, reflecting a 6.17% increase, which translates to a compensation of 0.007 RMB per kilowatt-hour for renewable energy generation [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality coal-fired power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and Guodian Power, as well as hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and State Power Investment Corporation [10]. - For the renewable energy sector, it recommends companies like Longyuan Power, China Nuclear Power, and Zhongmin Energy, highlighting their potential for growth amid favorable policy changes [10].