Group 1 - The unpredictability of the trade war initiated by President Trump has significant implications for inflation, which is more uncertain than its impact on economic growth [1] - The assessment of global events' impact on the UK is deemed "too unpredictable" [2] - April saw substantial short-term changes in market positions, indicating a challenging global situation and a reflection on the over-allocation of dollar positions by investors [3] Group 2 - Oil prices experienced significant fluctuations overnight [4]