Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of market fluctuations on investment strategies, particularly in relation to fund holdings during periods of volatility [3] - It references a previous market downturn in April 2025, where A-shares experienced a significant correction of 18%-19% due to concerns over inflation and interest rate policies [3] - The article emphasizes that despite short-term market fluctuations, the long-term outlook suggests a likely decrease in US interest rates, encouraging investors to hold onto their funds rather than sell [3] Group 2 - The article highlights the formula for index fund net value, which is determined by valuation, earnings, and dividends [3]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices have surged while stocks have fallen since the onset of the Iran conflict, indicating a shift in market dynamics and investor sentiment [1] Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have experienced a significant increase following the escalation of the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Stock Market - Stock prices have declined in response to the geopolitical tensions arising from the Iran conflict [1] Group 3: Gold Market - Contrary to expectations, gold prices have unexpectedly declined as market rate expectations have shifted [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Steel: The steel futures market is expected to be volatile. There is a chance to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach on the single side and gradually intervene in the opportunity to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils in the spot-futures market [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The market is in a range-bound state, with the upside limited by weak demand and increased supply, and the downside supported by costs. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach for now [3]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The spot market is driven by the futures market, and the first round of price increases is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly concerned about the futures trend. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach on the single side and enter the spot-futures arbitrage position [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The price is in a high-level range-bound state. It is not recommended to chase high or short. It can be operated according to the range-bound strategy. It is recommended to take a wait-and-see approach [7]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - On March 25, the closing prices of far-month contracts for RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3162.00 yuan/ton, 3322.00 yuan/ton, 777.50 yuan/ton, 1864.50 yuan/ton, and 1377.50 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of -11.00 yuan/ton, -6.00 yuan/ton, -11.50 yuan/ton, -17.50 yuan/ton, and -4.00 yuan/ton, and the change rates were -0.35%, -0.18%, -1.46%, -0.93%, and -0.29% respectively [1]. - The closing prices of near-month contracts (main contracts) for RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 on March 25 were 3132.00 yuan/ton, 3313.00 yuan/ton, 806.50 yuan/ton, 1776.00 yuan/ton, and 1241.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of -13.00 yuan/ton, -8.00 yuan/ton, -15.00 yuan/ton, -33.00 yuan/ton, and -22.50 yuan/ton, and the change rates were -0.41%, -0.24%, -1.83%, -1.82%, and -1.78% respectively [1]. - The cross-month spreads for RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 on March 25 were -30.00 yuan/ton, -9.00 yuan/ton, 29.00 yuan/ton, -88.50 yuan/ton, and -136.50 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spread/ratio/profit data for the main contracts on March 25 were as follows: the hot-rolled coil - rebar spread was 181.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.88, the coal - coke ratio was 1.43, the rebar disk profit was -144.48 yuan/ton, and the coking disk profit was 125.47 yuan/ton [1]. Spot Market - On March 25, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3220.00 yuan/ton, 3180.00 yuan/ton, 3470.00 yuan/ton, 2980.00 yuan/ton, and 106.50 respectively, with corresponding changes of 0.00 yuan/ton, -50.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, -10.00 yuan/ton, and -2.20 [1]. - The spot prices of Shanghai hot-rolled coil, Hangzhou hot-rolled coil, Guangzhou hot-rolled coil, billet - finished product spread, and Rizhao Port PB on March 25 were 3280.00 yuan/ton, 3300.00 yuan/ton, 3320.00 yuan/ton, 240.00 yuan/ton, and 794.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of -40.00 yuan/ton, -40.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 10.00 yuan/ton, and -4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The spot prices of Qingdao Port Super Special Powder, a certain product, Ganjimao Coking Coal, Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke, and Qingdao Port PB on March 25 were 683.00 yuan/ton, 740.00 yuan/ton, 1240.00 yuan/ton, -1430.00 yuan/ton, and 795.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of 3.00 yuan/ton, -2.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, and -4.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The basis data for HC main contract, RB main contract, a certain main contract, J main contract, and JM main contract on March 25 were -33.00 yuan/ton, 88.00 yuan/ton, 18.00 yuan/ton, -203.37 yuan/ton, and 29.00 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes of -29.00 yuan/ton, 13.00 yuan/ton, 0.00 yuan/ton, 22.00 yuan/ton, and 8.50 yuan/ton [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The contradiction on the supply side in the Middle East has not been alleviated, and the market volatility is extremely high [1]. - The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are tightening, and the market structure is operating strongly due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the accumulated damage to Middle East energy facilities [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a high supply share from the Middle East and a large risk exposure to geopolitical conflicts. As of now, the maintenance volume of Middle East refineries exceeds 2.5 million barrels per day, and local refined oil supply may not recover quickly even if the strait resumes navigation in the short term [2]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the direct export share from the Middle East is not high, the production has declined passively due to the reduced load of refineries in the Asia - Pacific region caused by raw material shortages. The high premium on the diesel side boosts the low - sulfur fuel oil market, and its market structure has strengthened significantly. The crack spread of low - sulfur fuel oil has more room to reach the historical high compared to high - sulfur fuel oil [2]. - Trump's remarks on postponing the attack on Iran were regarded as a signal of easing, causing the night trading of FU and LU to plunge following the crude oil market. The situation in Iran remains unclear, and the market is highly volatile, so both long and short positions lack a safety margin and caution is needed [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Analysis - The main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 5.99% during the day session, at 5,060 yuan per ton; the main contract of INE low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.51% during the day session, at 5,980 yuan per ton [1]. Strategy - High - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with high market volatility. It is recommended to mainly wait and see [3]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: In the short term, it is oscillating strongly with high market volatility. It is recommended to mainly wait and see [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3]. - Cross - period: No strategy provided [3]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [3]. - Options: No strategy provided [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased this week, with the average daily trading volume at 8.28 million lots and the average daily open interest at 9.05 million lots, showing a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The geopolitical impact in the Middle East led to a continued strong upward trend in commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors. Many varieties' implied volatility is at a high level in the past year, and investors are advised to pay attention to short - volatility opportunities [1][8][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Commodity Option Market Activity - The trading activity in the commodity options market decreased from March 16 to March 20, 2026. The average daily trading volume was 8.28 million lots, and the average daily open interest was 9.05 million lots, with a -22.31% and +5.14% change respectively compared to the previous period. The actively traded varieties included styrene (770,000 lots), methanol (650,000 lots), and silver (520,000 lots). Three varieties' trading volume doubled, namely asphalt (+368%), lead (+191%), and silver (+112%). The varieties with a significant decline in trading volume were staple fiber (-84%), propylene (-84%), and caustic soda (-75%). The varieties with high average daily open interest were soybean meal (750,000 lots), cotton (550,000 lots), and corn (520,000 lots). The varieties with a rapid increase in average daily open interest were asphalt (+154%) and p - xylene (+102%) [1][8]. 3.2 This Week's Key Data Review of Commodity Options - **Underlying Asset Price Movements**: Affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, commodity option underlying assets, especially in the energy and chemical sectors, continued to rise. The varieties with high weekly increases included LPG (+19.08%), ethylene glycol (+13.20%), and methanol (+11.66%); the varieties with high weekly decreases included silver (-15.76%), polysilicon (-10.17%), and tin (-8.45%) [2][17]. - **Market Volatility**: The geopolitical impact in the Middle East kept the market sentiment high. The implied volatility of 47 varieties was above the 80th percentile of the past year. The varieties with a significant increase in implied volatility included ethylene glycol (+14.27pct), gold (+11.49pct), and tin (+10.01pct); the varieties with a significant decrease in implied volatility included pure benzene (-85.51pct), styrene (-54.17pct), and p - xylene (-36.17pct) [2][17]. - **Option Market Sentiment**: Currently, the trading volume PCR of silver, copper, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon is at a historical high, indicating a short - term concentrated bet on a downward trend; the trading volume PCR of oilseeds, LPG, soda ash, and urea is at a one - year low, indicating a concentrated bet on an upward trend. The open interest PCR of PVC, asphalt, plastic, and soybean meal is at a historical high, indicating a high level of bearish sentiment; the open interest PCR of live pigs, silver, polysilicon, and rapeseed meal is at a one - year low, indicating a bullish sentiment [3][18]. 3.3 Key Data Overview of Major Varieties - This chapter presents key data of major varieties, including trading volume, volatility, and option market sentiment indicators. More detailed data can be found on the Dongzheng Fanwei official website (https://www.finoview.com.cn/) [23]. - **Energy**: Relevant charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of crude oil [24][25][26]. - **Chemicals**: - **PTA**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of PTA [30][31][33]. - **Caustic Soda**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of caustic soda [40][41][42]. - **Glass**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of glass [49][50][52]. - **Soda Ash**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soda ash [58][59][60]. - **Precious Metals**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silver [66][71][68]. - **Ferrous Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of iron ore [75][76][77]. - **Silicomanganese**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of silicomanganese [84][85][86]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: - **Copper**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of copper [92][93][95]. - **Aluminum**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of aluminum [101][102][103]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean Meal**: Charts display the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of soybean meal [109][110][114]. - **Palm Oil**: Charts show the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of palm oil [118][119][121]. - **Cotton**: Charts present the total trading volume, volatility, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR of cotton [126][128][130].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining investment discipline and emotional stability amidst market volatility, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions and market fluctuations [2][4]. Group 1: Sources of Investment Discipline - Investment discipline can be derived from a deep understanding of the market and individual companies, which helps investors remain calm during price fluctuations [2]. - A clear and executable set of rules for buying, holding, and selling investments is essential for maintaining discipline and reducing emotional decision-making [4][5]. - Proper financial arrangements, such as using surplus funds for investment, can alleviate pressure and allow investors to withstand market volatility without panic [7]. Group 2: Emotional Responses and Market Behavior - Emotional responses like anxiety and fear are natural reactions to uncertainty and can hinder investment decision-making [2]. - Investors should strive to develop a mindset similar to experienced sailors, who remain composed during storms due to their understanding of the situation [2]. - The article suggests that having a high level of confidence in investment choices can empower investors to act decisively during market downturns [2].

Core Viewpoint - Ulta Beauty, Inc. is facing challenges in maintaining investor confidence due to a disappointing quarterly profit report and a weaker-than-expected outlook for 2026, despite exceeding revenue expectations [2][3][5]. Financial Performance - Ulta's fourth-quarter earnings per share were $8.01, missing analyst estimates by 2 cents, while revenue reached $3.9 billion, exceeding expectations [3][6]. - The current stock price of ULTA is $547.16, reflecting a decrease of $77.54 or approximately -12.41% [4]. - Over the past year, ULTA has fluctuated between a high of $714.97 and a low of $323.37, with a market capitalization of approximately $24.53 billion [4]. Analyst Insights - Michael Lasser from UBS set a price target of $810 for ULTA, indicating a potential upside of approximately 48.20% from its then-current price of $546.56 [2][6]. - Analysts at Oppenheimer have reduced their price target for Ulta from $750 to $650, citing concerns over economic and geopolitical factors [5][6]. Market Context - Ulta competes with major beauty retailers like Sephora and operates over 1,200 stores across the United States, offering a diverse range of products and in-store salon services [1].

Group 1 - The conflict in Iran is causing significant disruptions in global markets, leading to surging oil prices and rising bond yields, which are prompting traders to reassess inflation and interest rate outlooks [1][2][3] - A sustained 10% increase in oil prices could add approximately 40 basis points to global inflation, as warned by the International Monetary Fund [2] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil supply, with about 20% of the world's oil passing through it, making even minor energy shocks potentially impactful on wages, prices, and financial markets [3] Group 2 - Some governments, like South Korea, have the capacity to implement measures such as capping fuel prices to mitigate the impact of rising energy costs on households, while others may lack such flexibility [4] - The UK exemplifies vulnerability, as recent market movements have erased improvements in the 10-year gilt yield assumption, indicating a rapid loss of interest-rate relief for the government [5] - The UK’s fiscal strategy is being defended by Rachel Reeves, who noted that debt interest is projected to be £4 billion lower than previously forecast, suggesting potential for £15 billion annually for other priorities if borrowing costs align with the G7 average [6]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On March 9, spot prices of liquefied gas in various domestic markets showed different ranges, and the prices of propane and butane in the frozen cargo arrival prices in East and South China in the first half of April 2026 increased significantly [1] - Driven by weekend news and the overall sentiment of the energy sector, both the domestic liquefied gas spot and futures markets rose significantly, but the market volatility also increased significantly [1] - The current main contradiction in the market lies in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. As of March 9, the number of oil tankers passing through the strait remained at a very low level, and the supply of LPG in the Middle East was significantly tightened [1] - Although the increase in US LPG shipments can fill the Middle East gap to some extent, if the Strait blockade continues, the market may further tighten [1] - The PG market has entered a high - volatility stage, and the development of the Iranian situation will have a decisive impact on the market [1] - The short - term strategy for the single - side trading is to be oscillating and bullish, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 7060 - 7600; North China market, 5850 - 6560; East China market, 5700 - 6110; Yangtze River area market, 5960 - 6280; Northwest market, 5800 - 6200; South China market, 5898 - 6000 [1] - In the first half of April 2026, the frozen cargo arrival prices of propane and butane in East China were both 980 US dollars/ton, up 136 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 7461 yuan/ton, up 1047 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of April 2026, the frozen cargo arrival prices of propane and butane in South China were both 980 US dollars/ton, up 136 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 7461 yuan/ton, up 1047 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Single - side: Short - term oscillating and bullish, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2]

Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices have seen a significant spike, with production pullbacks in the Middle East, particularly a 70% reduction in Iraq and a complete halt in Kuwait's production [2][3] - Concerns are rising regarding Iranian oil reserves being targeted, which could further impact supply, especially with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed [3][4] - The potential involvement of China and India in purchasing Iranian oil could lead to future supply issues if Iran's production is disrupted [4] Impact on Airlines and Travel Industry - Airlines are facing pressure due to rising fuel costs, which are a major expenditure alongside labor [8][11] - The airline industry's exposure to Middle Eastern routes is minimal, with Delta having less than 1% and United around 1.5% to 2% of total flights affected [10] - The travel industry, particularly cruise lines, may see cancellations and route adjustments due to rising oil prices and potential economic impacts [11][12] Market Reactions and Trends - The S&P 500 index has seen a decline of 2% last week and continues to drop, indicating a broader market reaction to rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions [12] - Small-cap stocks were down over 4% late last week, while the Dow fell over 3%, contrasting with some tech stocks that performed well [13][14] - Gold and silver have not seen the expected uptick during this period of volatility, likely due to a stronger dollar limiting their appeal as safe-haven assets [15][16] Cryptocurrency and Energy Sector Flows - Bitcoin experienced a rally last week but is currently down about 0.5%, indicating fluctuating investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency market [16] - There is a noticeable flow of investments into energy and crude oil stocks as investors seek safety in these asset classes amid market uncertainty [17]