Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that tariffs are not a solution to global economic imbalances, highlighting the risks associated with excessive trade deficits and surpluses [2][3]. Group 1: Global Economic Assessment - The IMF's 2025 External Sector Report evaluates the trade status of 30 major economies, which account for approximately 90% of global GDP [2]. - In 2024, the global current account balance as a percentage of world GDP is expected to increase by 0.6 percentage points, reversing a trend of decline since the 2008-2009 financial crisis [2]. - The report indicates that the U.S. trade deficit will expand by $228 billion in 2024, reaching $1.13 trillion, reflecting macroeconomic imbalances within the U.S. [2]. Group 2: Tariffs and Trade Wars - The IMF asserts that tariff barriers have minimal impact on improving trade imbalances and warns that escalating trade wars could significantly affect the global macroeconomy [2]. - Short-term effects of higher tariffs may reduce global demand and exacerbate inflationary pressures by increasing import prices [2]. Group 3: Currency and Financial Stability Risks - The report expresses concerns about the stability of the international monetary system due to rising geopolitical tensions, which could disrupt financial stability [2][3]. - The U.S. dollar has depreciated by 8% since January, marking the largest semi-annual decline since 1973, prompting global investors to reassess their exposure to dollar risks [3]. - The rise of stablecoins and innovations in cross-border transactions may reinforce the dollar's dominance but could also introduce financial stability risks [3].