美国就业市场预警

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深夜突发,闪崩!
券商中国· 2025-06-12 15:42
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent economic data from the U.S., highlighting a lower-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) and rising unemployment claims, which have led to increased speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This has resulted in a significant decline in the U.S. dollar and a rise in non-U.S. currencies, alongside warnings from prominent investors about the dollar's future depreciation. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. May PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, but the month-on-month growth was below the anticipated 0.2% [1][4] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.1% month-on-month and 3% year-on-year, both figures falling short of market expectations [4][8] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 reached 248,000, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since October 2024 [10][11] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, traders have fully priced in the possibility of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, with a 80% chance of a cut in September [2][5] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a sharp decline, dropping over 1% to a low of 97.6003, the lowest since March 2022, while other non-U.S. currencies appreciated [2][5] Investor Insights - Notable investor Paul Tudor Jones warned that the dollar could significantly depreciate over the next year due to falling short-term interest rates, predicting a potential 10% drop [13][14] - Concerns about the U.S. debt burden and interest payments have been raised by other financial leaders, indicating a challenging environment for dollar assets [18][19] - Analysts suggest that ongoing trade tensions and high trade deficits are diminishing the dollar's attractiveness, leading to a shift towards European assets [19][20]