1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - In March 2026, the polyethylene market was affected by multiple factors such as the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, sharp rise in crude oil prices, plant maintenance, and downstream demand recovery, leading to a significant price increase. In April, the polyethylene market may continue to rise due to supply reduction, cost support, and demand increase [5][6][41]. - In March 2026, the polypropylene market showed a roller - coaster - like sharp rise and fall, dominated by the Middle - East geopolitical conflict. In April, it is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price, with an overall market trend of oscillation, rising first and then falling [5][6][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - aspect 3.1.1 China - In February 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of broad money M2 was 9%, the same as the previous month. The manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [7]. - In February 2026, the year - on - year increase in the national consumer price was 1.3%, and the month - on - month increase was 1%. The year - on - year decrease in the national industrial producer price was 0.9%, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month, and the month - on - month increase was 0.4% [8]. - From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 96.12 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%, with the decline widening by 4.8 percentage points compared to the whole of the previous year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 81.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%, with the decline widening by 7.6 percentage points [10]. - From January to February 2026, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 130.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5%. Among them, domestic loans were 25.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.9%; self - raised funds were 49.39 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.9%; deposits and advance receipts were 35.89 billion yuan, a decrease of 21.5%; and personal mortgage loans were 11.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 41.9% [13]. - Current domestic macro - economic data shows that liquidity remains loose, and the demand side has improved. The real estate data is inconsistent. The growth rate of funds in place for real estate development enterprises continues to decline significantly, while the year - on - year decline in national real estate development investment has narrowed significantly [15]. 3.1.2 International - In February 2026, the US CPI remained unchanged from the previous month at 2.4%. The US - Iran conflict caused a sharp increase in oil prices, which has not yet been reflected in the data [16]. - In February 2026, the US manufacturing PMI decreased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 52.4%, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 4.4% [19]. - Currently, the decline in US inflation and high unemployment are favorable for interest rate cuts, but the sharp increase in oil prices due to the US - Iran conflict has led to an increase in inflation expectations, hindering the Fed's interest rate cuts. The Fed is inclined to keep interest rates unchanged, and the market expects an increased possibility of interest rate cuts this year [21]. - Geopolitical conflicts still significantly boost oil prices, providing obvious cost support for polyolefins [23]. 3.2 Fundamental - aspect 3.2.1 PE - In March 2026, polyethylene production increased by 298,000 tons to 2.9357 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 80.66%, a decrease of 6.94%. The increase in production was mainly due to an additional production day [24]. - In March 2026, the overall downstream industry's polyethylene operating rate was 34.95%, a 13.35 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The average monthly operating rate of the PE packaging film industry increased by 18.07% month - on - month, and the overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 11.9% month - on - month [27]. - At the end of March 2026, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene decreased. The inventory was 446,200 tons, a decrease of 58,300 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 184,100 tons compared to the same period last year [29]. 3.2.2 PP - In March 2026, China's total polypropylene production was 3.212 million tons (the production from the 28th to the 31st was estimated data), a month - on - month increase of 3.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.33%. There was no new production capacity put into operation during the month, and the supply side of polypropylene had no pressure from new production [32]. - In March 2026, the apparent consumption of polypropylene decreased month - on - month. The estimated domestic apparent consumption of polypropylene in March was 2.992 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.97%. The average downstream operating rate of polypropylene was 46.16%, a month - on - month increase of 7.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.02% [35]. - At the end of March 2026, the inventory of polypropylene production enterprises was 493,700 tons, a 32.46% decrease from the end of the previous month. The inventory of polypropylene traders was 177,800 tons, a 28.79% decrease from the end of the previous month [38]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 PE - In April 2026, the domestic capacity utilization rate of polyethylene is expected to decrease by 7.37% month - on - month. Due to the shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz, the import volume in April may decrease by 22.16% month - on - month, and the total supply is expected to decrease by 14.29% month - on - month. The demand side shows a positive trend, with the downstream operating rate expected to increase by 4.49%. Although the demand for agricultural films will decline by 2.99% as the peak season comes to an end, the operating rate of packaging films is expected to increase by 5%, and the export volume is also expected to increase by 8.64% month - on - month. The cost of polyethylene will still be strongly supported by the relatively high - level crude oil prices. Overall, the price of the polyethylene market may rise in April [41]. 3.3.2 PP - In April 2026, the polypropylene market is expected to show a narrow upward movement first and then return to a rational price. Geopolitical risks have slowed down but not completely subsided, and there are still concerns about energy supply. The oil - based production cost is expected to loosen at a high level, but the PDH - based production cost is strongly supported by the high price of imported propane. The downstream demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the high - priced raw materials make it difficult for downstream enterprises to transfer costs, which restricts the overall downstream operating process. In April, more enterprises will stop production for maintenance or reduce production loads, and the supply side of the market will show a more obvious reduction. Overall, the market is expected to oscillate, rising first and then falling [41].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate - cut process may be postponed, and copper prices are likely to move in a volatile trend [1][34][36] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In March, the price of the main contract of Shanghai copper futures decreased significantly, with the price range between 91,500 yuan/ton and 104,870 yuan/ton [7] 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Fed Rate - cut Process - Fed Chairman Powell said the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignores" the impact of energy shocks. His speech eased market concerns about Fed rate hikes, and traders began to bet on a possible rate cut this year. The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 2.6%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 97.4%. By June, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 92.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike is 2.5% [10][34] 2.2 China's PMI Data - In March, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and new order index were above the critical point, while the raw material inventory index, employment index, and supplier delivery time index were below the critical point [13][15] 3. Supply and Demand 3.1 China's Copper Smelter Processing Fees - As of March 30, 2026, China's copper smelter refining fee was - 7 cents/pound, and the rough smelting fee was - 69.2 dollars/kiloton. The copper processing fee has been at a low level. As of January 2026, the ICSG's global copper concentrate production was 1,919 thousand tons, the capacity was 2,498 thousand tons, and the utilization rate was 76.8% [19] 3.2 Scrap - to - Refined Copper Price Spread - As of March 31, 2026, the price of refined copper in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,580 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap copper in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,600 yuan/ton, with a spread of 1,420 yuan/ton. From a seasonal perspective, the current spread is at an average level compared to the past five years [24] 4. Inventory - As of March 27, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. The LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous trading day, with a cancelled warrant ratio of 18.81%. As of March 30, 2026, the COMEX copper inventory was 588,121 tons, a decrease of 798 tons from the previous trading day. The Shanghai bonded area inventory was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week [27] 5. Outlook 5.1 Price Trend Factor Analysis - The impact factors of copper price include US policy (★★★, Fed rate - cut may be postponed), China's policy (★★, some economic data in China are rising), supply (★★★, refined copper processing fees are at a very low level; ★★, scrap - to - refined copper price spread returns to normal), and inventory (★★, COMEX copper continues to accumulate significantly; ★★, Shanghai copper inventory decreases) [33] 5.2 Forecast - Overall, copper prices are likely to show a high - level volatile market, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for options contracts [34][35][36]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trend in gold prices, attributing it to geopolitical tensions and changing market perceptions regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices began to stabilize and rise from March 27, following a period of pressure due to military actions in the Middle East [2]. - Initial declines in gold prices were driven by liquidity issues, including margin calls and the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven compared to gold [2]. - As the expectation of prolonged conflict in the Middle East grows, the market is shifting towards viewing gold as a "ultimate safe haven" asset [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [2]. - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy due to prolonged conflict could further support gold prices [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies - The market previously misjudged the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which requires specific economic conditions to be met [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a series of interest rate hikes starting in March 2022, aimed to combat high inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [3]. - In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite energy shocks from the Middle East, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, which may lead the market to price in potential rate cuts this year, providing further support for gold [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is in a stage of oscillatory repair after a rapid correction. The driving force has shifted from single - factor risk - aversion to a dual - game of "geopolitical support + re - inflation constraint". Gold has underlying support, while silver shows higher volatility [1]. - Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, but high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential. The market is unlikely to return to a unilateral loose - trading stage in the short term and is more likely to maintain an oscillatory repair pattern [2]. - Silver follows the repair trend of precious metals but has significantly higher volatility than gold. It is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term. Its price may show alternating repair and retracement characteristics [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Overview - The Middle East situation is still in a stage of high - level fluctuations, with negotiation signals and military pressure coexisting. The geopolitical risk premium has not significantly declined. Oil prices remain high, suppressing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm, and the US dollar is generally strong [1]. Gold - **Viewpoint**: Gold is in an oscillatory repair stage under high - volatility conditions. Geopolitical uncertainties provide support, while high oil prices and a strong US dollar limit its upward potential [2]. - **Logic**: The Middle East situation still has risks in military deployment, energy transportation security, and regional spill - over, making it difficult for the market to fully unwind the geopolitical premium. High oil prices increase concerns about inflation stickiness and the Fed's delayed interest - rate cuts, constraining gold's upward momentum. After a rapid decline, the repair of gold prices indicates that allocation demand still exists, but the market has not returned to a unilateral loose - trading stage [2]. - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation, oil - price transmission, and changes in the Fed's policy expectations. If geopolitical risks continue to escalate, gold still has allocation value; if negotiation expectations rise and high oil prices continue to suppress the interest - rate cut space, the upward slope of gold may be limited [2]. Silver - **Viewpoint**: Silver follows the repair trend but has higher volatility than gold and is more easily affected by market sentiment and industrial product pricing in the short term [2][3]. - **Logic**: Silver benefits from the overall stabilization and repair of precious metals and has higher price elasticity when gold stops falling. The increase in energy prices has begun to be transmitted to the industrial product chain, supporting silver's sentiment. However, due to its dual financial and industrial attributes, silver's price fluctuates more in a strong - dollar and risk - asset - pressured environment, showing alternating repair and retracement [3]. - **Outlook**: If gold continues to repair and industrial product sentiment remains strong, silver has room for a supplementary increase; if the US dollar remains strong or the market shifts back to liquidity - contraction trading, silver's volatility may further increase [3]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: Not detailed in the content. - **Special Index**: The commodity index is 2535.43, up 0.96%; the commodity 20 index is 2829.64, up 1.01%; the industrial products index is 2584.88, up 1.10% [43]. - **Plate Index**: The precious metals index on March 30, 2026, is 3769.72, with a daily increase of 1.46%, a 5 - day increase of 2.88%, a 1 - month decrease of 18.56%, and a year - to - date decrease of 1.43% [45].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the U.S. economy, particularly regarding inflation and the labor market. Core Insights and Arguments - The Federal Reserve's attention has shifted towards inflation, with discussions on inflation and the labor market at a ratio of 5:1 during the FOMC meeting, indicating a strong focus on price stability [1] - Fed Chair Powell's stance on energy supply shocks has turned hawkish, suggesting that overall inflation increases will raise the threshold for interest rate cuts until the effects of tariffs on core goods are clarified [1][3] - The labor market is described as being in a "low equilibrium," with average monthly job additions only at 20,000 to 30,000, a slowdown in hiring activity, and a decline in labor market fluidity over the past year [1][5] - The potential trigger for interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026 could be a slowdown in inflation or rising oil prices that suppress consumer spending and lead to a slight increase in unemployment [1][6] - Long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased since the pandemic but are still considered "well-anchored," which is a core premise for the Fed's tolerance of short-term price fluctuations [1][4] Additional Important Content - The recent macroeconomic uncertainties suggest that the Fed will adopt a cautious approach, with previously expected rate cuts in June and September now pushed to September and December [2] - The FOMC press conference revealed that approximately 18 questions were focused on inflation or prices, while only 5 were related to the labor market, highlighting the dominant concern over inflation [3] - Powell's complex response to energy supply shocks indicates that the Fed may not ignore the impact of rising oil prices on overall inflation until the effects of tariffs are fully understood, raising the bar for determining if inflation is declining [3][4] - The labor market is currently characterized by a "strange balance," with immigration controls significantly suppressing labor supply growth and hiring activity declining for a year [5] - If economic conditions and Fed policies evolve as expected, the U.S. Treasury market is anticipated to perform well by the end of 2026, as current market pricing does not reflect rate cut expectations, and Treasury securities will continue to serve as a valuable hedge in broader risk asset portfolios [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are likely to continue in a volatile trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options contracts [5][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract CU2605 of Shanghai copper futures showed a volatile trend, ranging from around 91,500 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 96,590 yuan/ton [9] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the national scale reached 1.02456 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. The profits of major industries showed different trends, with significant growth in computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (2.0 times), non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing (1.5 times), etc., while some industries such as the automotive manufacturing industry declined by 30.2% [12][13] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - As of March 26, 2026, the rough smelting fee of Chinese copper smelters was - 69.2 US dollars per thousand tons, and the refining fee was - 7 cents per pound. As of March 27, 2026, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaomao was 95,500 yuan/ton, the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 85,450 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 1,505 yuan/ton, which was at the average level compared with the past five years [16][20] 3.4 Inventory Situation - As of March 27, 2026, the cathode copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 359,135 tons, a decrease of 51,986 tons from the previous week. As of March 25, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 360,175 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warehouse receipts was 17.4%. As of March 26, 2026, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 63,400 tons, with a decrease of 11,000 tons from the previous week; the inventory in Guangdong was 61,400 tons, and the inventory in Wuxi was 74,300 tons [24] 3.5 Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut process may be further postponed. The shortage of copper ore still exists. The processing fees of Chinese copper smelters continue to decline rapidly and are at an extremely low level. The refined - scrap copper price difference has decreased and is in a reasonable range. The investment in power grid infrastructure has changed from an increase to a decrease, and the copper product output has decreased slightly year - on - year. The Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly, and the inventory level is at a relatively high level in recent years. The LME copper inventory has increased rapidly, and the inventory level is at the highest level in recent years [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai copper prices declined and then stabilized. The main contract of Shanghai copper rose 1.26% to close at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, while the Middle East events and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, the consumption season is approaching, but downstream consumption willingness is average. The domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory was 360,250 tons and increased significantly last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. - The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025 [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - The Shanghai copper main contract rose 1.26% last week, closing at 95,930 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors supported copper prices, and high oil prices might affect the Fed's future interest - rate cuts. In China, downstream consumption willingness is average, and domestic spot copper trading is mainly for rigid demand. LME copper inventory increased significantly, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 51,986 tons to 359,135 tons [3]. 3.2. Fundamentals - **PMI**: No detailed information provided [9]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The copper market is in a tight balance in 2024 and will be in surplus in 2025. The 2018 - 2024 China annual copper supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations in each year, with a supply surplus of 110,000 tons in 2024 [11][14]. - **Inventory**: Exchange inventory is in the process of destocking, and bonded - area inventory remains at a low level [15][20]. 3.3. Market Structure - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are at a low level [23]. - **CFTC Position**: Non - commercial net long positions in CFTC are flowing out [25]. - **Spot - Futures Price Difference**: No detailed information provided [28]. - **Import Profit**: No detailed information provided [31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: No detailed information provided.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation, focusing on the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the implications of rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][3][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market is speculating on a potential interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2026, but this remains a low-probability event due to insufficient conditions for a "stagflation" scenario similar to the 1970s [2]. - The Federal Reserve's current policy is to maintain interest rates, with "not lowering rates" being viewed as a baseline, while monitoring the negative feedback from tightening financial conditions [7]. Group 2: Oil Prices and Economic Impact - Rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical conflicts, could lead to a temporary stagflation, but a recession is more likely for the U.S. economy if these tensions escalate [3]. - A peak in oil prices may serve as a precursor for the return of interest rate cut expectations, indicating that the Fed may choose to remain unchanged in its policy until necessary adjustments are warranted [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The article highlights that the market is closely watching the Middle East situation, as easing tensions could contribute to stabilizing oil prices, which in turn affects financial and economic conditions [4]. - Recent data shows that U.S. industrial enterprises reported a cumulative revenue growth of 5.3% year-on-year and a profit increase of 15.2% for January-February 2026, indicating a strong start to the year [12].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing tensions in Iran have led to a significant sell-off in the U.S. stock market, with major indices experiencing substantial declines, while oil prices have surged due to geopolitical concerns [1][2][3]. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market Impact - The U.S. stock market saw a collective drop, with the Dow Jones falling nearly 800 points, a decrease of 1.73%, and the Nasdaq dropping over 2% [1][2]. - Major technology stocks, including Amazon and Facebook, fell nearly 4%, while Nvidia and Tesla dropped over 2% [1][2]. - The S&P 500 index also declined by 1.67%, indicating widespread market weakness [2]. Group 2: Oil Price Surge - International oil prices experienced a significant increase, with U.S. crude oil rising by 7.09% to $101.18 per barrel, driven by fears of supply disruptions due to the tense situation in the Middle East [1][3]. - The rise in oil prices has raised concerns about inflation and its potential impact on the global economy, as well as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 3: Consumer Sentiment - A survey indicated that consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped significantly, with a 6% decline in March, attributed to rising fuel prices and market volatility [2][3]. - Expectations for future fuel prices surged nearly fivefold compared to February, reaching the highest level since June 2022, while personal financial outlooks decreased by 10% [3]. Group 4: Iranian Military Response - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard issued a warning for personnel associated with U.S. and Israeli industrial enterprises to evacuate, following multiple attacks on Iranian facilities [5][6]. - Iran has identified new targets for retaliation, including steel plants in Israel and related industrial facilities in five other countries, indicating a potential escalation in military actions [5][6].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term due to the game between weak current reality and strong long - term expectations, but the high domestic inventory may suppress the upward space [11]. - The corn price is in a high - level oscillation pattern, and market sentiment is affected by external markets and policy rumors. It is recommended to wait and see carefully, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy trends [11]. - The peanut price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term due to the contradiction between the support from oil mills and weak consumption [11]. - The live - pig market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - The egg price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - The jujube market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - The cotton price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. - The caustic soda export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - The double - offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - The urea price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. - The precious metals prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - The copper and aluminum prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - The alumina supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - The rebar and hot - rolled coil prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - The ferroalloy prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - The lithium carbonate price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. - For options, trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - The stock index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemical Industry | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coking Coal | 1,216.00 | 1,230.00 | -14.0 | -1.138% | | Coke | 1,740.50 | 1,761.00 | -20.50 | -1.164% | | Natural Rubber | 16,505.00 | 16,460.00 | 45.0 | 0.273% | | No. 20 Rubber | 13,690.00 | 13,635.00 | 55.0 | 0.403% | | Plastic | 8,800.00 | 8,767.00 | 33.0 | 0.376% | | Polypropylene (PP) | 9,208.00 | 9,120.00 | 88.0 | 0.965% | | PTA | 6,748.00 | 6,778.00 | -30.0 | -0.443% | | PVC | 5,613.00 | 5,650.00 | -37.0 | -0.655% | | Asphalt | 4,490.00 | 4,543.00 | -53.0 | -1.167% | | Methanol | 3,229.00 | 3,202.00 | 27.0 | 0.843% | | Ethylene Glycol | 5,109.00 | 5,058.00 | 51.0 | 1.008% | | Styrene | 10,343.00 | 10,046.00 | 297.0 | 2.956% | | Glass | 1,036.00 | 1,036.00 | 0 | 0 | | Crude Oil | 744.60 | 733.10 | 11.50 | - | | Fuel Oil | 4,445.00 | 4,393.00 | 52.0 | 1.184% | | Soda Ash | 1,227.00 | 1,225.00 | 2.0 | 0.163% | | Pulp | 5,170.00 | 5,156.00 | 14.0 | 0.272% | | LPG | 6,550.00 | 6,541.00 | 9.0 | 0.138% | | Caustic Soda | 2,469.00 | 2,509.00 | -40.0 | -1.594% | | PX | 9,738.00 | 9,774.00 | -36.0 | -0.368% | [4] 3.2 Agricultural Products | Variety | 2026/3/27 (8:00) | 2026/3/26 (15:00) | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yellow Soybean No. 1 | 4,591.00 | 4,627.00 | -36.0 | -0.778% | | Yellow Soybean No. 2 | 3,739.00 | 3,746.00 | -7.0 | -0.187% | | Soybean Meal | 2,937.00 | 2,952.00 | -15.0 | -0.508% | | Rapeseed Meal | 2,319.00 | 2,344.00 | -25.0 | -1.067% | | Soybean Oil | 8,660.00 | 8,646.00 | 14.0 | 0.162% | | Rapeseed Oil | 9,844.00 | 9,840.00 | 4.0 | 0.041% | | Palm Oil | 9,648.00 | 9,614.00 | 34.0 | 0.354% | | White Sugar | 5,441.00 | 5,463.00 | -22.0 | -0.403% | | Yellow Corn | 2,365.00 | 2,376.00 | -11.0 | -0.463% | | Corn Starch | 2,759.00 | 2,765.00 | -6.0 | -0.217% | | Cotton No. 1 | 15,355.00 | 15,420.00 | -65.0 | -0.422% | | Cotton Yarn | 21,495.00 | 21,640.00 | -145.0 | -0.670% | [4] 3.3 Macro - News - US President Trump will visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication [7]. - Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Iran put forward four conditions for a cease - fire [7]. - The US Department of Defense is formulating military options against Iran, and Iran has organized over one million people for ground combat [8]. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Middle - East situation and the Iranian nuclear issue with Canadian Foreign Minister Anand [8]. - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Dutch Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation Scherzma, and they exchanged views on Sino - Dutch semiconductor cooperation [8]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation emphasized strengthening anti - monopoly supervision and law enforcement [9]. - 96 central departments publicly disclosed their 2026 budgets, and the "Three Public Expenses" budget decreased by 7.2% year - on - year [9]. - Domestic airline fuel surcharges will increase on April 5, 2026 [9]. 3.4 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.4.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the game between short - term supply pressure and long - term supply tightening expectations. The upper pressure is around 5500 yuan, and the lower support is around 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price is in a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the spot supply rhythm and policy. The lower support is in the 2350 - 2360 yuan/ton range [11]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The lower support is around 8000 yuan, and the upper pressure is the previous high [11]. - **Live - Pig**: The market has an oversupply situation, with the spot price continuing to find the bottom, and the short - position in the futures should be reduced [11][12]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly, with the near - month contracts rising significantly, but the low inventory of laying hens limits the rebound height [12]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a bottom - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to operate within the range on an intraday basis [13]. - **Cotton**: The price is expected to run strongly due to the tight domestic supply - demand pattern and demand support, and it is recommended to lay out long positions on pullbacks [14]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Caustic Soda**: The export has a strengthening expectation, but there is a risk of near - month contract correction due to the high premium of the futures price over the spot price [16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are expected to be slightly pressured in the short term, although there is still support for replenishment [16]. - **Double - Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term, and there is a risk of price decline if demand is lower than expected [16]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to remain stable in the short term and the futures price may continue to consolidate at a high level [16]. 3.4.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The prices are oscillating at a high level with large fluctuations [18]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait patiently for the prices to stop falling and stabilize [18]. - **Alumina**: The supply is still relatively large, but there are concerns about the supply restriction of bauxite in Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach when the price is low [18]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices have a support at the low level, but attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical news [18]. - **Ferroalloy**: The prices are recommended to be treated with a long - position approach on pullbacks, but there is a risk of chasing high [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is in an oscillatory adjustment, and it is recommended to operate within a range [20]. 3.4.4 Options and Finance - **Options**: Trend investors can focus on the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can go long on volatility when the underlying asset price falls and go short when it rises [20][21]. - **Stock Index**: The index is expected to maintain an oscillatory upward trend, but the short - term rebound strength should not be overly expected. It is recommended to control the position and wait for the confirmation of volume indicators [22][23][24].