Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear a significant case regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" policy implemented by the Trump administration, which could lead to the invalidation of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and potential refunds of nearly $90 billion already paid by U.S. businesses [1][2][6]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The IEEPA allows the President to impose tariffs if there is an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security, which Trump argues is due to trade deficits [4][6]. - The courts have previously ruled that the tariffs imposed under IEEPA are illegal, stating that the "regulate" power does not equate to unlimited taxing authority [6][5]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the IEEPA tariffs, the U.S. government may need to refund the tariffs collected, which could have adverse effects on the economy [6][7]. Group 2: Economic Impact - A potential ruling to revoke the IEEPA tariffs could lower the effective tariff rate by 10 percentage points to 6%, but this would not fully mitigate the economic losses from the trade war, with GDP expected to be 0.7% lower than pre-election forecasts [7]. - The tariffs have been criticized for potentially harming the U.S. economy and increasing the national budget deficit, as the negative impacts on economic growth and higher consumer prices may outweigh expected tax revenues [7][8]. - Regardless of the Supreme Court's decision, tariffs imposed under other legal frameworks, such as the Trade Expansion Act, will remain unaffected, but these require more complex procedures and are not as immediate as the IEEPA tariffs [7][8].