Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading the market to anticipate a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][5]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following preliminary comments from judges during the hearing [4][5]. - The market sentiment is shifting towards the likelihood that the Supreme Court will overturn the IEEPA-based tariff policy, which is a key variable affecting current market emotions [5][6]. Group 2: Alternative Legal Avenues - Despite setbacks in court, the Trump administration still has other legal avenues to impose tariffs, as indicated by Treasury Secretary Bessent's optimism and readiness to utilize alternative legal authorizations [6]. - Potential alternative measures include Section 122, allowing a broad 15% tariff within 150 days, Section 338, permitting tariffs up to 50% on countries discriminating against U.S. businesses, and the concept of "licensing fees" for tariffs, although the latter faced skepticism during the hearing [7][8][9]. Group 3: Short-term Winners and Losers - If the IEEPA tariffs are overturned, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. is expected to drop from an estimated 12.5% to around 9% [11]. - The biggest beneficiaries in the short term are likely to be economies heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. and most affected by the IEEPA tariffs, particularly Vietnam and Mexico [11][15]. - Other countries, such as India, may also see significant tariff reductions, while the EU and the UK are expected to benefit the least [15]. Group 4: Market Performance and Trading Strategies - On the day of the hearing, the market showed a favorable response, with the Mexican peso and Brazilian real appreciating, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [13]. - The Russell 2000 small-cap index outperformed the S&P 500, reflecting a positive market sentiment towards tariffs [16]. - One-year inflation swap rates fell by over 5 basis points, indicating that investors quickly adjusted their expectations regarding inflation pressures from tariffed goods [16].

Core Viewpoint - A legal challenge against the Trump administration's key tariff powers is leading to market expectations of a significant, albeit possibly temporary, reversal of trade barriers [1][2]. Group 1: Legal Challenge and Market Reaction - The market's expectation of the Trump administration winning the IEEPA tariff case has significantly decreased, with the probability dropping from approximately 40% to 27% following initial court comments perceived as unfavorable [2]. - The outcome of this legal challenge is a key variable influencing current market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Potential Market Impact - If the court ultimately overturns the tariffs imposed under IEEPA, it could trigger a trading surge, leading to a decrease in inflation expectations, an increase in stock prices (especially small-cap stocks), and a strengthening of certain emerging market currencies like the Mexican peso and Brazilian real [1][4]. - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. is projected to drop from 12.5% to around 9% if IEEPA tariffs are overturned, which would benefit countries heavily reliant on trade with the U.S. [4][6]. Group 3: Beneficiaries and Losers - The primary beneficiaries of a potential IEEPA overturn would be countries with high trade dependency on the U.S., such as Vietnam and Mexico, while the EU and the UK would benefit the least [6]. - Other countries like India, which has not reached a trade agreement with the U.S., could see significant tariff reductions [6]. Group 4: Trading Strategies - Market performance on the day of the hearing indicated a favorable sentiment towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 index outperforming the S&P 500 [8]. - The foreign exchange market saw the Mexican peso and Brazilian real rise, aligning with the analysis of potential winners [8].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Supreme Court is set to hear a significant case regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" policy implemented by the Trump administration, which has raised concerns about the limits of presidential power in imposing tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [2][3]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Legal Framework - The Trump administration has imposed extensive tariffs on major trading partners under the IEEPA, with U.S. businesses paying nearly $90 billion in tariffs as of September 23, accounting for over half of the total tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 [2]. - The IEEPA allows the president to take action if there is an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security, which Trump argues is due to significant trade deficits [5][6]. - Legal challenges have emerged from businesses and state governments, arguing that the IEEPA does not explicitly grant the authority to impose tariffs, and that previous interpretations of the law do not equate "regulation" with "taxation" [6][7]. Group 2: Judicial Implications and Economic Impact - The case is seen as highly contentious, with analysts suggesting that the Supreme Court may issue a limited ruling that maintains presidential power but imposes restrictions on the declaration of national emergencies [8]. - If the IEEPA tariffs are deemed invalid, the government may need to refund the collected tariffs, which could have adverse effects on the U.S. economy, potentially lowering the effective tariff rate by 10 percentage points [8][9]. - The economic impact of Trump's tariff policy is expected to exacerbate the national budget deficit, as the negative effects on economic growth and higher consumer prices may outweigh anticipated tax revenues [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming Supreme Court hearing regarding the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy, highlighting its potential implications for presidential powers and U.S. trade policy [3][4]. Group 1: Tariff Policy and Legal Framework - The Trump administration has imposed extensive import tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), with U.S. businesses paying nearly $90 billion in tariffs as of September 23, accounting for over half of the total tariff revenue for fiscal year 2025 [3][7]. - The IEEPA allows the president to impose measures if there is an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to national security, which Trump argues is due to significant trade deficits [7][9]. - Legal challenges have emerged from businesses and state governments, claiming that the IEEPA does not explicitly grant the authority to impose tariffs, and previous court rulings have deemed such tariffs illegal [8][9]. Group 2: Implications of Supreme Court Decision - Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court may issue a limited ruling, maintaining presidential powers while imposing restrictions on the declaration of national emergencies [10]. - If the IEEPA tariffs are ruled invalid, the government may need to refund billions in tariffs collected, which could negatively impact the U.S. economy [11]. - The potential ruling could also affect other tariff measures under different legal frameworks, which require more complex procedures and may limit the president's ability to impose tariffs quickly [12].

Core Points - The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariffs" policy, which is considered one of the most significant cases in its history [1][2] - Trump has stated that if the Supreme Court forces him to abandon the tariff policy, it could lead the country to a "third world" level [1] - The tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have resulted in U.S. businesses paying nearly $90 billion, accounting for over half of the total tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Presidential Authority on Tariffs - The discussion revolves around the boundaries of presidential power to impose tariffs, with the IEEPA allowing the president to act in response to significant threats to national security, foreign policy, or the economy [2] - Trump argues that the substantial trade deficit constitutes an exceptional threat to U.S. national security and economy [2] Legal Challenges - The policy has faced strong opposition from businesses and several state governments, leading to lawsuits claiming the tariffs violate constitutional principles [3] - Plaintiffs argue that the IEEPA does not explicitly mention "tariffs" or "taxes," and that previous presidents have not used this law to impose tariffs [3] Court Rulings and Implications - Previous rulings by the U.S. International Trade Court (CIT) and the Federal Circuit Court deemed the tariffs illegal, stating that the IEEPA does not grant unlimited taxing authority [4] - Analysts suggest that the Supreme Court may issue a limited ruling, maintaining presidential power but requiring defined limits and standards for declaring a national emergency [5] Economic Impact - If the IEEPA tariffs are ruled invalid, the U.S. government may need to refund the collected tariffs, which could negatively impact the economy [5] - A potential ruling could lower the effective tariff rate by 10 percentage points, but it would not eliminate all losses from the trade war, with GDP still projected to be 0.7% lower than pre-election forecasts [5][6] Broader Legal Context - Regardless of the Supreme Court's decision, tariffs imposed under other laws, such as the Trade Expansion Act, remain unaffected [6] - Other legal avenues for imposing tariffs involve more complex procedures and time constraints, which could limit the president's ability to act swiftly [6]

若IEEPA关税最终被判无效，美国政府可能需要退还已征收的关税。 当地时间11月5日，美国最高法院将就特朗普政府实施的所谓"对等关税"政策举行听证会。 11月2日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台上表示："在我看来，这将是美国最高法院史上最重要、最具 影响力的裁决之一"。他进一步警告称，如果最高法院迫使他放弃相关关税政策，"我们的国家可能会沦 为'第三世界'水平"。 不过，特朗普在表态中改变了此前计划亲自出席听证会的立场，转而表示："我不会在5日亲自前往最高 法院，因为我不想分散公众对这一裁决重要性的关注。" 当前，特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对主要贸易伙伴征收广泛进口商品关税，即 所谓"对等关税"。根据美国海关与边境保护局发布的数据，截至9月23日，美国企业为应对IEEPA关税 已支付近900亿美元，这一数额占2025财年美国关税总收入的一半以上。 尽管最高法院对判决时间的安排并无固定期限，但由于本案属于加速审理范畴，外界预期法院可能会在 较短时间内作出决定。不过，目前市场对于该案的裁决前景并非普遍乐观。 全球投资咨询公司BCA研究首席地缘政治策略师格特肯（Matt Gertken）对第一 ...

"减少美国对外国商品依赖、通过关税重构全球贸易" 议程的一部分，美国本周起将取消低价值进口商品的免税待遇。 特朗普上月签署的一项行政令规定，自8月29日起，价值800美元及以下的国际包裹将不再享受一项广泛适用的海关豁免政策，这比美国国会通过的减税与支 出法案中设定的截止日期提前了近两年。 尽管特朗普此前已针对来自中国和中国香港的低价商品取消了 "最低限额规则"（de minimis rule），但如今对来自其他所有地区的小额包裹征收进口税，仍 可能给部分小企业和网购消费者带来重大变化。 美国正式取消全球低价值商品免税待遇 自8月29日起，价值800美元及以下的国际包裹将按以下方法征税。 方法1：从价关税法，按货物原产国有效IEEPA关税税率，对每件应税包裹价值征收等额关税 IEEPA有效关税，即特朗普引用IEEPA发起的关税，包括对等关税和芬太尼关税，除中国、加拿大和墨西哥外，其他国家都只有对等关税。例如，中国的 IEEPA有效税率为10%对等关税 +20%芬太尼关税。 ●有效IEEPA关税率在16%至25%（含）之间的国家：每件160美元； ●有效IEEPA关税率高于25%的国家：每件200美元。 从价关税 ...