Core Insights - The St. Louis Fed's analysis suggests that the decline in the immigrant population has been exaggerated, primarily due to a significant drop in the participation rate of immigrants in surveys [2] - The Fed's researchers estimate that as of November this year, the actual decline in the immigrant population is between 123,000 and 627,000, which is much lower than the 1.86 million decline reported by the Current Population Survey (CPS) [2] - The CPS data also indicates an implausible increase of 3.8 million in the native population, raising questions about the accuracy of the survey [2] Participation Rate Analysis - The analysis highlights that from January to November 2025, the response rate for the CPS survey has significantly decreased across various groups, with non-naturalized immigrants experiencing a decline approximately 10 percentage points higher than native-born workers and naturalized citizens [2] - The researchers emphasize that the substantial decrease in the participation of immigrants in the survey raises concerns about whether the reported net immigration decline reflects a true decrease or is merely a result of fewer immigrants choosing to participate in the survey [2] Employment Growth Insights - The separate analysis of employment growth indicates that the number of new jobs added by November may not be sufficient to match the growth of the native population [2] - This finding points to a decline in the immigrant labor force, although the extent of this decline is less than what the CPS measurements suggest [2]