Core Insights - The average price of lamb in China's wholesale markets has shown a slight increase, indicating a potential upward trend in lamb prices during the autumn of this year, surpassing last year's levels [1][4] - The meat sheep breeding industry is expected to enter a prosperous cycle as the prices stabilize and begin to rise [1][3] Price Trends - The average price of meat sheep has fluctuated slightly, with a minor decrease of 2.01% from the first week to the 24th week of the year, compared to a significant decline of 8.60% in the same period last year [1][2] - The average price of lamb has also seen a slight decrease of 0.80% over the same period, while last year's decline was 7.20% [2][3] - Current lamb prices are above 2019 levels but are at the median level of the current cycle since 2017 [2][4] Industry Performance - The profitability of meat sheep farming has stabilized, with average net income per sheep around 35 yuan, despite some farmers still facing losses [2][3] - The overall trend indicates that the meat sheep breeding sector has moved away from the rapid decline experienced in previous years [2][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The reduction in supply due to accelerated capacity adjustments has contributed to the stabilization of meat sheep prices and breeding profitability [3][4] - The number of meat sheep in China is projected to decrease, with a 6.8% decline expected by the end of 2024, leading to a corresponding drop in lamb production [3][4] - Lamb imports have also decreased significantly, with a 15.5% drop in 2024, although there was a slight increase in early 2025 [3][4] Future Outlook - The current low levels of meat sheep production capacity are expected to lead to price increases in the autumn, with potential for prices to exceed last year's figures [4] - As consumer income rises, the demand for lamb is anticipated to grow, indicating a positive outlook for the lamb market in the long term [4]