Workflow
股指期权买入蝶式价差策略
icon
Search documents
股指期权买入蝶式价差策略正当时
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2026-01-19 05:14
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the CSI 1000 Index has broken through the upper edge of the previous shock range and risen rapidly, but entered a shock consolidation phase after January 13. The long - term upward logic of the index is solid, but it is likely to consolidate in the short term. Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation [2][10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Condition Analysis - The CSI 1000 Index broke through the upper edge of the shock range due to multiple factors such as the strong resilience of macro - economic data, positive policy expectations, and net inflow of incremental funds. After January 13, it entered a shock consolidation period [2] - As of January 16, the position PCR of CSI 1000 index options was 92.97%, at the 74.6% quantile level since 2023. The decline of position PCR since January 13 indicates that market sentiment has cooled [3] - As of January 16, the at - the - money implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 21.90%, at the 55.0% quantile level since 2023. The decline of implied volatility since January 13 shows that investors' expectation of high - volatility risk has returned to normal [4] Factors Affecting the Index Policy - related - The macro - policy has a strong determination to stabilize domestic demand. The macro - economic data in December 2025 showed strong resilience, and the policy will focus on promoting the economic positive cycle by boosting residents' consumption [5][6] - The policy has a clear determination to support scientific and technological innovation. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has set goals for key technological breakthroughs and the development of strategic emerging industries, which strongly support the CSI 1000 Index [7] Capital - related - As of January 15, the margin trading balance of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.69 trillion yuan, and the margin trading purchase amount increased significantly. The active margin trading funds have promoted the market rally [8] - On January 14, the minimum margin ratio for margin trading was raised from 80% to 100%. This adjustment reflects the regulator's intention to guide rational investment and prevent systemic risks. With the significant increase in stock valuations, investors' profit - taking intention has risen, and the index is likely to consolidate in the short term [9] Strategy Recommendation - Buying the butterfly spread strategy of CSI 1000 index options can match the current market expectation. This strategy is composed of three option contracts with different strike prices in arithmetic progression and the same expiration date and type. It can limit both maximum profit and maximum loss, and has a relatively high probability of profit within a certain range. It can capture potential mild - rise returns and control callback risks [10][11]