Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector, characterized by high volatility and significant investor interest, is undergoing a transformation in its survival strategies as it enters a new era of equity allocation driven by declining interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Performance and Changes - The brokerage sector was once a major wealth creation engine in the A-share market, with an average ROE soaring to 40% during the 2007 bull market and a peak PB valuation of 19 times [2]. - Following the 2012 Securities Industry Innovation Conference, a fundamental shift in the valuation logic of brokerage stocks began, leading to a significant decline in ROE and PB ratios during market downturns [4]. Group 2: Business Model Evolution - Prior to the innovation conference, brokerages heavily relied on channel businesses, with brokerage services contributing over 50% of their revenue, resulting in a strong correlation between market conditions and ROE [4]. - Post-2012, the rise of capital intermediary businesses like margin trading and stock pledges diversified revenue sources but also led to a narrowing of ROE elasticity and a restructuring of the valuation system [5]. Group 3: Current Market Dynamics - The brokerage sector is now characterized by a "triple deleveraging" effect: ROE has decreased from a 15%-20% range to 5%-10%, PB ratios have dropped from 19 times to 2 times, and the correlation with market indices has weakened by 18 percentage points since 2020 [5]. - The shift from a high-beta, performance-driven model to one where valuation and policy expectations play a larger role indicates the end of the "wild growth period" for brokerages [5]. Group 4: Path to Becoming Leading Investment Banks - The Chinese securities industry is in a critical phase of restructuring, with top brokerages pursuing mergers and innovations to enhance their competitiveness [6]. - Despite the push for creating first-class investment banks, domestic brokerages still face significant challenges in capital strength, business synergy, and internationalization compared to global peers [6][10]. Group 5: Mergers and Acquisitions - The integration of major brokerages, such as the merger between Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, reflects a strategic move towards building a leading investment bank in Shanghai [8]. - The effectiveness of mergers varies, with firms like Huatai Securities successfully enhancing their market position through strategic acquisitions, while others like Shenwan Hongyuan struggle with integration challenges [9]. Group 6: Capital Constraints - Domestic leading brokerages generally have net asset scales below 300 billion yuan, significantly lower than international firms like Goldman Sachs, which limits their operational capabilities [10]. - The regulatory constraints on leverage ratios further hinder domestic brokerages' ability to compete in high-end financial services, where they hold less than 5% market share in areas like M&A advisory and structured financing [10].