Core Viewpoint - NIO's recent success with the launch of the Lido L90 and the new ES8 has overshadowed the struggles of the "NIO Battery Swap Alliance," which has not produced any mass-market battery swap vehicles despite initial enthusiasm [1][4]. Group 1: Alliance Development and Challenges - The NIO Battery Swap Alliance initially included major automakers like Changan, Geely, and Chery, but by mid-2025, no other member had launched a battery swap vehicle [4][5]. - NIO claims to have built over 3,460 battery swap stations and completed over 80 million swap services, but 83% of these services are for non-NIO brands, indicating a lack of participation from alliance members [4][6]. - Automakers are hesitant to fully commit to battery swapping due to concerns over battery standardization and control over battery specifications [6][10]. Group 2: Strategic and Financial Concerns - NIO has invested 18 billion yuan in battery swapping, with each station costing around 5 million yuan, but the average service frequency is only 35 times per day, below the 60 times needed for breakeven [13][15]. - The cost of adapting vehicles for battery swapping is significant, with an estimated additional cost of 12 billion yuan for a production run of 100,000 vehicles [15][16]. - Consumer preferences are shifting, with 68% of potential customers prioritizing battery upgrade possibilities over charging efficiency, complicating NIO's battery-as-a-service (BAAS) model [16][20]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape and Alternatives - CATL has introduced standardized batteries that do not require a unified vehicle platform, attracting brands like Dongfeng and SAIC to its battery swap model [22][23]. - The rapid advancement of fast-charging technology is leading automakers to prefer self-controlled charging solutions over battery swapping, as evidenced by investments from companies like Li Auto and Xpeng [22][23]. - NIO is pivoting towards becoming an energy service provider, integrating battery swap stations with grid systems to generate additional revenue [23][25]. Group 4: Future Implications and Industry Dynamics - The silence from alliance members reflects a broader struggle for energy sovereignty within the electric vehicle industry, as automakers recognize the long-term value of energy networks beyond vehicle sales [29][32]. - The potential for financial instruments, such as asset securitization of battery rental income, could provide a pathway for resolving collaboration issues within the alliance [32][34]. - The evolution of the NIO Battery Swap Alliance may represent the beginning of a more complex narrative in the energy supply standardization process, driven by technology, capital, and consumer behavior [34][35].