自然的理性
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神棍的叙事和自然的理性:论预测
猛兽派选股· 2025-11-04 03:52
Group 1 - The article emphasizes that predictions are essential in both speculation and investment, highlighting that even value investing relies on forecasting future cash flows [1] - It distinguishes between two types of predictions: one based on subjective feelings and emotions, referred to as "mystical narratives," and the other grounded in rationality and logical reasoning, termed "natural rationality" [1] - The author argues that accurate predictions require a systematic approach that respects common sense and logical deduction, contrasting it with mere guessing [1] Group 2 - The complexity of the stock market is compared to the broader complexities of human society and the universe, suggesting that understanding the stock market is a pursuit worth undertaking [2]