Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The 2026 mid - term election poses a difficult defensive battle with overlapping pressures for Trump and the Republican Party. The Republican Party, as the ruling party, is constrained by the historical inertia of the "probable defeat of the ruling party" in US mid - term elections. Trump's poor polling performance and controversial stances on key policy issues have intensified voter polarization. The potential entry of Musk's "American Party" may disrupt the traditional two - party competition and split core votes, while the Democrats' proven ability to mobilize voters on social issues like abortion rights will continue to counter the Republicans. Unless there are significant positive events to boost the Republican Party's support rate in the next year, the probability of the Republicans losing control of the House of Representatives is relatively high. The Senate election will be more intense, and the Republicans still face great risks from uncertainties [2][62]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. US Mid - term Election Mechanism Details - **Definition and Core Features** - The US mid - term election is a national election held in the middle of the president's four - year term, aiming to balance and adjust the power of the federal and local governments through regular public feedback. It is based on the 1787 Constitution, held every four years, and involves the re - election of some seats in Congress (all seats in the House of Representatives and about one - third in the Senate), as well as elections for governors, state legislators, and other local officials in many states and local areas. It is a competition between the Democratic and Republican parties for control of Congress, which affects the president's governance environment in the second half of the term [3][5]. - The mid - term election differs from the presidential election in terms of election content, cycle, and political influence. It is a "public opinion poll" on the president and his party, reflecting public satisfaction with the government's performance in the past two years and affecting the president's political capital and governance space in the remaining term [6]. - The mid - term election has three core political meanings: it is a key test of the legitimacy and effectiveness of the president and his party, determines the control of Congress, and provides a political preview for the presidential election two years later [7]. - **Time Arrangement** - The specific date of the US mid - term election is fixed on the first Tuesday of November in the second year of the president's term, which has remained stable since 1845. This date is a national holiday to ensure voters can vote. The choice of this date was related to the agricultural - based society in the 19th century [8][9]. - The US mid - term election follows a strict four - year cycle, which is an important part of the US democratic system, ensuring power rotation and balance. The 2026 mid - term election will be on November 3, 2026, with the re - election of all 435 House seats, about one - third of the 100 Senate seats, and elections for governors, state parliaments, and other local officials in many states [10][11]. - **Main Content** - Congress seat re - election is the core of the mid - term election. In the House of Representatives, all 435 seats are re - elected every two years, and the seats are allocated according to state population, but the process is often manipulated by the two parties. In the Senate, each state has two seats, and about one - third of the seats are re - elected every two years, with senators elected by the whole - state voters [12]. - The mid - term election also includes elections for governors and local officials in many states, which have an important impact on the political and policy environment at the state and local levels [13]. - In many states, there are various referendum proposals on the mid - term election ballots, which allow voters to directly vote on specific laws or constitutional amendments, serving as a form of direct democracy and an important channel for social movement and public opinion expression [14]. - **Operation Process** - The mid - term election consists of a primary stage (intra - party nomination) and a general election stage (cross - party competition), and some states may have a runoff. The primary usually takes place from spring to early autumn in the election year, with states determining the specific dates and forms. Voters choose candidates within their party, and some states set thresholds for candidates [16]. - The general election is a "cross - party competition" where all registered voters can vote for candidates who have won the primaries. The election results are determined by the candidate with the most votes, and the winning candidates will take office in January of the next year [17][18]. - After the vote, the election results are counted and certified. House election results are usually determined on the night of or the day after the election day, while Senate results may be delayed. If the votes are close or there are disputes, a recount may be triggered. If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes in some states, a runoff will be held [19]. 2. US Mid - term Election Historical Context and Political - Economic Motivation Analysis - **Historical Context** - The results of mid - term elections from 1986 to 2022 show that the ruling party generally loses seats, with only two exceptions in 1998 and 2002. This "mid - term election curse" is due to voters' dissatisfaction with the ruling party, the opposition party's effective mobilization, and the magnification of the ruling party's problems [23][25]. - The change of seats in mid - term elections has led to the transfer of Congress control between the two parties multiple times, reflecting voters' tendency to balance power between two general elections [26]. - **Power Change and Motivation Analysis** - In the 1986 mid - term election, the "Iran - Contra Affair" and economic issues led to the Republican Party's defeat. The scandal damaged the government's credibility, and the economic prosperity did not benefit the lower - middle class, resulting in the Republicans losing 5 House seats and 8 Senate seats [27]. - In 1990, the economic recession and the betrayal of the "no new taxes" promise by the George H. W. Bush administration led to the Republicans losing 8 House seats and 1 Senate seat [30]. - The 1994 mid - term election was the "Republican Revolution." Clinton's policy difficulties and the Republicans' promotion of "The Contract with America" led to the Republicans regaining control of the House and Senate [34]. - In 1998, despite Clinton's impeachment crisis, the economic prosperity helped the Democrats gain 5 House seats [35]. - In 2002, after the "9/11" attacks, the Republicans won more seats in the House and Senate by focusing on national security and the economic recovery [39]. - In 2006, the Iraq War, economic concerns, and Republican scandals led to the Democrats regaining control of Congress [41]. - In 2010, the economic recovery slowdown and the "Obamacare" controversy led to the Republicans' comeback, with a net increase of 63 House seats and 6 Senate seats [42][43]. - In 2014, economic imbalance, political polarization, and unfavorable seat distribution led to the Democrats' defeat and the Republicans' full control of Congress [45]. - In 2018, the "anti - Trump mobilization" and seat distribution led to the Democrats regaining the House and the Republicans consolidating their advantage in the Senate [46]. - In 2022, despite high inflation, the "abortion rights" issue helped the Democrats perform better than expected, losing 9 House seats but gaining 1 Senate seat [49]. - **Historical Rule Summary** - The ruling party's "mid - term defeat" is the norm, and a strong catalyst is needed for a reversal, such as a national security crisis, economic prosperity, or a strong anti - ruling - party sentiment [55]. - The economy is the fundamental factor, but social issues can change the game. Economic conditions usually dominate the election results, but high - sensitivity social issues can override economic issues [56][57]. - Trump has strong mobilization ability but may face risks if he "chooses candidates based on loyalty" in the primaries [58]. - The "structural factors" of the election determine the framework, and tactical operations determine the final result. Senate elections depend on seat defense structure, while House elections are more sensitive to short - term public opinion, and "district redrawing" is crucial [59]. - The "anti - status quo" tendency of public opinion is the core, and the ruling party's success depends on its ability to hedge contradictions [60]. - **2026 Election Outlook** - Key variables for the 2026 mid - term election include Trump's popularity, economic and livelihood issues, and social issues. Trump's declining support rate, potential economic problems, and the Democrats' focus on social issues may all pose challenges to the Republicans [61].