Summary of Conference Call Records Company and Industry Involved - **Company**: 蜜雪冰城 (Mixue Ice City) - **Industry**: Tea and Beverage Industry Key Points and Arguments 1. Bottom Opportunities and Growth Potential in Tea Beverage - A research report indicates that the price range for tea beverages has significant alpha growth potential, providing important reference for related research analysis. The report was published on January 21, 2026 [1] 2. Update on Core Views After Mixue's Decline - The impact of raw material cost changes on the company's overall gross margin is limited. While prices for lemons and coffee beans have increased, other raw material prices have decreased year-on-year, resulting in minimal overall impact on gross margin. A detailed breakdown will follow [1][2] - The probability of gross margin fluctuations due to raw material factors in 2026 compared to 2025 is low [1] - The long-term bullish view on Mixue is reiterated [1] 3. Advanced Packaging and Testing Industry Outlook - A specific company holds nearly 60% market share in the price range below 10 RMB, demonstrating strong cost advantages and scale effects, with deep supply chain barriers and sustainable competitive advantages [2] - The expected domestic store expansion is between 60,000 to 80,000 stores. Assuming the lower limit of 60,000 stores, if each store contributes long-term performance of 100,000 to over 100,000 RMB, the long-term steady-state performance could reach approximately 6.5 billion RMB [2] - The business model has replacement value for leading beverage companies in the first price range, convenience stores, and some retail channels, with a sustainable model. A valuation midpoint of around 20 times is given, corresponding to a valuation of 130 billion RMB, indicating low downside risk and a recovery risk within 10 percentage points, maintaining a long-term bullish attitude [2] 4. Raw Material Cost Impact on Gross Margin - A detailed breakdown and update of the profit forecast model for 2025 and 2026 will be conducted. The core raw material cost structure based on 2023 historical procurement data shows that lemons account for approximately 6%, milk powder for about 8%+, oranges, tea, and coffee beans each for 3-4%, with five core raw materials totaling nearly 24-25% [2] - Concerns about lemon price increases for 2025-2026 are noted, with a projected increase of about 67% in lemon prices compared to 2024 [2] 5. Lemon Price Changes and Company Response - By June 30, 2025, the company raised the national supply price of lemons from 200 RMB for 30 jin to 255 RMB, with an additional 8% increase before the Spring Festival. The current lemon procurement cost is approximately 10.6 RMB per kilogram, lower than market prices [3] - The impact of lemon price increases on gross margin is estimated to be about 5 percentage points, but due to the 13% cup share of lemon water, the actual impact on reported gross margin is about 0.7-0.8 percentage points [3] - Other raw material price trends show varying changes: orange prices are expected to decrease by about 10% in 2026, while imported milk powder prices are projected to drop by about 5%. Tea prices remain stable, and coffee bean prices show a mixed trend [3] 6. Profit Forecast and Scenario Analysis for 2025-2026 - The performance forecast for 2025 is approximately 5.8 billion RMB, with revenue performance expected to be relatively stable [4] - For 2026, assuming stable raw material prices and no changes in franchisee subsidy policies, gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a net store opening of 8,500-9,000 and a growth rate of 16%-17%. Revenue is projected to maintain a growth rate of around 12%, leading to an estimated performance of about 6.8 billion RMB, with a growth rate exceeding 15% [4] - In a scenario where franchisee subsidies are increased, if gross margin declines by 2 percentage points, performance is expected to be around 6.2 billion RMB, with a growth rate of about 6% [4] 7. Long-term Bullish Logic and Investment Recommendations - A long-term bullish attitude towards Mixue is maintained, with expectations of bottom support for performance and sustainable core competitive barriers, indicating stable market share [5] - Short-term fluctuations should be monitored, particularly regarding the reduction of delivery subsidies in 2026 and the impact of new brands like Lucky Coffee on marginal profit margins. The domestic main business remains solid, with overseas expansion and Lucky Coffee providing upward options, with a current downside risk of about 10 percentage points [5]