Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan Securities highlights the increasing competitive pressure in the retail pharmacy sector due to weakened demand, leading to a gradual supply-side contraction. The report emphasizes the growth potential of leading pharmacy chains by 2026, focusing on both organic and external growth opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - The retail scale of China's physical pharmacies (including drugs and non-drugs) is projected to reach 611.9 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.8% due to factors such as population decrease and changes in medical insurance accounts [1]. - The industry adjustment is expected to continue into the first three quarters of 2025, with the market size reaching 449 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9%, but showing signs of recovery on a month-on-month basis [1]. - In September 2025, the industry size is estimated at 53.8 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 0.8% and a month-on-month increase of 6.7% [1]. Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - Despite weak terminal demand, the pharmaceutical category is experiencing a recovery, with the retail scale of drug sales in physical pharmacies reaching 43.7 billion yuan in September 2025, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 6.9% and a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [2]. - The sales proportion of drugs in pharmacies increased by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year to 81.4%, while the proportion of health products decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8% [2]. Group 3: Supply Side Dynamics - The number of physical pharmacies reached a new high in 2024, exceeding 700,000, representing over a 60% increase from the end of 2014, which has intensified competition in the industry [3]. - The number of stores in the industry decreased by 4,000 in Q4 2024 and by 3,000 in Q1 2025, with leading pharmacy chains showing lower closure rates compared to smaller chains [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Leading pharmacy chains are expected to recover first, with growth driven by both internal and external factors. The rising incidence of flu is anticipated to boost sales of respiratory-related medications [4]. - The current number of direct stores for leading chains is around 10,000, representing only about 1.5% of the industry, indicating significant room for growth and concentration in the market [4].