炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 随着周二一份令人失望的美国11月非农就业报告出炉，知名经济学家和专家纷纷发出警示，指出美国劳 动力市场正显现放缓迹象。 据劳工统计局的报告显示，当月非农就业人数增加6.4万人。尽管这一数字高于预期的5万人，但仍远低 于健康就业增长所需的水平。 就业增长已陷入停滞 密歇根大学经济学家贾斯汀·沃尔弗斯（Justin Wolfers）在社交平台X上发文指出，如果算上10月份的就 业岗位流失以及对8月和9月数据的下修，自今年4月以来，美国"几乎没有就业增长"。而这一时期，恰 好与特朗普实施"解放日"关税的时间点相吻合。 沃尔弗斯补充道，官方公布的就业数据可能仍夸大了真实的招聘步伐。他援引美联储的估算数据指出， 由于"出生-死亡模型（birth-death model）"存在技术性问题，官方数据每月可能虚高了约6万个就业岗 位。他据此得出结论："就业人数实际上正以每月约4万人的速度在萎缩。" 沃尔弗斯认为，这种疲软在一定程度上反映了作为政府"DOGE（政府效率部）"计划一部分的联邦裁员 所带来的工作岗位流失。 他指出，那些选择"离 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second rate cut since September[5] - The Fed will stop reducing its balance sheet starting December 1, ending a three-year period of asset reduction[5] - The decision to cut rates and halt balance sheet reduction is aimed at addressing rising liquidity pressures in the market[10] Group 2: Economic Conditions - U.S. economic uncertainty remains high, with significant downward risks to employment increasing in recent months[4] - Job growth has slowed, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, far below the expected 75,000[8] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years, triggering recession signals[8] Group 3: Market Reactions - The Fed's actions are seen as a response to tightening liquidity conditions, with over $2 trillion having exited the financial system since June 2022[10] - The balance sheet reduction halt is expected to inject approximately $50–60 billion in liquidity monthly into the banking system[12] - Following the Fed's announcement, market volatility increased, with the Nasdaq index slightly rising by 0.6% while the Dow Jones fell by 0.2%[13]